Posted on 02/04/2016 10:23:44 AM PST by LS
On the night of the Iowa caucus events, I was getting pinged from all sides about what was happening. Unfortunately, some of us still work for a living (joke). I was on the road for an assignment and did not have access to a reliable computer or wireless. I was not "hiding" form critics, and I wasn't ignoring those of a like mind.
Finally I can address what has happened, and I don't think anyone will be happy.
The obvious:
*The polls were horribly wrong. Only the Emerson Poll got it right, but I think that was a total accident. The "gold standard" Des Moines Register is discredited; Nate Silver (thank God) is discredited. So, for myself, until proven otherwise through SEVERAL accurate polls, I'm paying no heed to these. That means we don't know if Trump is ahead in NH or nationally. Likewise, Cruzers, it blows out of the water the notion that "Cruz does better than Trump against Hillary." We don't know now, good or bad.
*While initially Trump had a classy statement of congratulations to Cruz, then he accepted full blame for not "taking Iowa seriously enough," he quickly fell into the "Cruz cheated" mantra.
Politics is vicious and I have no problem with any tricks you can get away with. Period. Moreover, it's over. You absolutely cannot fight the last battle. Every second that Trump spends on this is not only wasted time, but shows he isn't properly focused on NH and beyond. (I'll discuss the "Carson tweet/voter shaming in a minute, but not as some of my fellow Trumpers think).
Whatever happened with Carson/Cruz, the biggest takeaway of this caucus and the biggest negative for Trump is that his strength---his business acumen and organization---took a severe hit. I understand Iowa's unique religious and grass-roots character. But for someone whose reputation is based on organizing, cutting costs and getting things done, it doesn't look good. The story today from the always questionable National Journal that he still has not taken the advice of his campaign team to expand his ground operation in NH is distressing. Trump has been claiming this entire campaign (with experience to support it) that he will "put the right people" in the right positions. Iowa is an inauspicious start. Word is that Cruz has built a powerful similar grassroots network in Tennessee---another Bible Belt state where he'll do well. How The Donald responds to this challenge to his business acumen, not his political instincts, will be critical.
*Carsongate. As I said before, this is politics. I don't know who did what, and as Rush said, we can't prove that any number of voters had their votes changed. The notion that "just four votes per precinct" would give Trump the win is undeniable and just like saying that just one more touchdown a quarter would have given the Patriots the victory over the Broncos. But Cruzers, don't think this doesn't hurt Cruz and his image. He has built an image early on, well, being "St. Ted." He is the "pure" candidate, the one with God on his side. These kinds of shenanigans, combined with the "voter shaming" letter, are minor things ... but they do add up. Cruz can afford one or two of these, but if it ever gets the point that he is viewed as a hypocrite---as opposed to just "a conservative" (or even a "radical right winger"), that charge will have legs.
*The biggest winner---and yet, from another perspective, biggest loser---is Rubio. THE GOPe'S GOAL IS TO BAIT AND SWITCH RUBIO FOR CRUZ AFTER STOPPING TRUMP. Now, Cruzers, I do not think Ted intends that to happen (nor does Trump), and it's not a "conspiracy" between the two men. This is totally "strategerized" by the GOPe, knowing that one on one, Rubio cannot beat either Cruz or Trump. (I would say that to date, Trump's biggest mistake was not in skipping the Iowa debate, but in July and August, when he had Rubio in the grave, not burying him then).
But how is Rubio a loser? He exceeded expectations in Iowa and seems to have (ugh) "momentum." Except ... of ALL the candidates, Rubio not only had money and had the most campaign experience at this level, but had the entire GOPe, National Review, ALL the bloggers and the entire GOP establishment shilling for him (even attacking Jeb for wanting to stay in the race). If Rubio, with all those advantages, couldn't win, that does not speak well for his future chances. Trump may have lacked a "ground game" in Iowa, but Rubio had no excuse.
In short, we are right where the Cruzers hoped we would be: and IA win preventing a Trump landslide. But we're also where the GOPe hoped we'd be, because remember, now matter how unlikely you think it to be, THEY think they will take Cruz out easily---more easily than Trump. Even if Trump wins NH, now, nothing will be proved until a real one-on-one Trump/Cruz match occurs in the neutral battlefield of South Carolina.
http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/bombshell-report-marco-rubios-gay-scandal-surfaces/
here is a link, but I’m not sure how correct the source is, which is why I didn’t post it. But yesterday on one of the forums here there was some talk about a “sex scandal” and some madam had a name she would release that would have an effect on the election. I assume this is what she was talking about but could be wrong.
“If NH comes in with anyone other than Trump at the top the entire races optics open up”
Who’s second to Trump that is eligible?
If we had a fair and sane press that should narrow the ‘optics’
Well, lots of us had hopes Cruz would be the stabilizing tail on a Trump kite. So much for that.
This.
Attend just one Iowa caucus and you can get a free lesson on how intimidation and public shaming works.
There are reasons why nobody should let Iowa be the bellwether for anything, and there are also reasons why the political machines maintain Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucus status. Once again, only if you look at it as being part of a political con job rather than the preservation of some mythical quaint tradition, it all makes sense.
It sure ain't because politicians just love Iowa(ns) in February.
Mr. niteowl77
Drudge is sitting on a Cruz ‘bombshell’, as is Breitbart. It’s about to get real interesting, if all parties decide to go there, although a blogger will have to break everything since the MenSeekingMen won’t. Only Q is does it happen before NH.
Don’t forget, Trump owns lots of hotels, and probably also has some juice to splash with.
That might be the reason there was a fake mistress story released recently about Rubio. Throw doubt over there about him being a womanizer so people won’t look closer over here at his arrest at a gay cruising park. Sheesh been to many closet homos on pubbie side for my comfort.
I have read about that, but is there a good, reliable source that reports on this? I don’t want to accuse him of that if it isn’t true, but if it is, I would really like to know.
Carson could be fishing for a position?
No. I don’t vote lesser of two evils anymore. I will write in Ted Cruz.
Thanks. Interesting but not conclusive.
According to the article, police report does not mention details other than being in the park after closing.
More facts are needed.
Then he’s even worse than I was thinking he was.
Yeah, That’s what I thought, hence why i didn’t post it. I do think it gives one pause, especially with all the scandal rumors floating around at this time.
Probably the most profound post of the day. Although some technically are qualified, nobody is very good. Out of millions of Americans, this is the best we could come up with? Really?
Thanks...
For the arrest..I got it from Jim Noble..thanks.
Obama was a complete do-nothing during his six years in the Illinois legilsature, accomplishing nothing and missing huge numbers of votes. One he got elected, he did nothing.
Rubio spent more than a decade in state government, rising from City Commissioner, to state representative, to Majority leader, until being elected Speaker by his fellow Republicans. Unlike Obama, he actually excelled at that level of government. Cut taxes, fought eminent domain, and according to the Democratic House leader was an "extreme right" conservative but one who was willing to work on legislation and not "be a jerk"/about it. He left office only because he was term limited out.
Like Cruz and Oba, Rubio only has one Senate term. But unlike Obama, he against actually did something. Probably the biggest thing he accomplished - and it's usually hard for junior Senator to do much, but - was to dig into the Affordable Care Act. He figured out that the government might try to use the " risk corridors" to bail out insurance companies that were losing money, and he drafted legislation to ensure that federal funds couldn't be used for that.
It was diabolically clever, because Rubio foresaw that the original funding plan - which had profitable insurers bailing out unprofitable ones - would probably not raise enough money. He wanted to amend the law to prevent dipping into other federal revenues. Dems thought the original plan would raise enough money, and didn't want to be accused of sending tax dollars to insurance companies. So, both Congressional Democrats and Obama they signed off on his legislation.
Rubio turned out to be right, and the inability of the feds to use tax dollars to bail out insurance companies (because of Rubio's legislation) is accelerating the death spiral.
That's really the only effective blow that has been struck against Obamacare by anyone in Congress.
Polls are for fools.
Exactly. What do we know?
We know that who wins the Iowa caucus rarely wins the nomination right?
We know the media is just a criminal all around. THey lie to us more than tell the truth.
so, the polls have to be skewed. Remember 2012 elections I was shocked Zero got re-elected. Now we know the reports of employment numbers and the economy, were lies to re-elect the puke. Oh and Benghazi was put on hold. OUTRAGEOUS.
Polls......UGH!
Indeed.
Cheers.
When it comes to “moral” candidates, I think we’re all concerned about the big things, abortion, adultery, marriage, not about “campaign ethics” if there is such a thing. We’re concerned about honesty in keeping campaign promises, and Cruz has already proven that he’s done that in his Senate career. When people talk about looking for an ethical, trustworthy candidate, the type of campaign mailers or phone calls someone makes are not even on the radar. This is super small ball, only being hyped up by Cruz haters, of whom there are many thanks to Team Trump and Team RINO (Fox, etc.).
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