Posted on 02/04/2016 10:23:44 AM PST by LS
On the night of the Iowa caucus events, I was getting pinged from all sides about what was happening. Unfortunately, some of us still work for a living (joke). I was on the road for an assignment and did not have access to a reliable computer or wireless. I was not "hiding" form critics, and I wasn't ignoring those of a like mind.
Finally I can address what has happened, and I don't think anyone will be happy.
The obvious:
*The polls were horribly wrong. Only the Emerson Poll got it right, but I think that was a total accident. The "gold standard" Des Moines Register is discredited; Nate Silver (thank God) is discredited. So, for myself, until proven otherwise through SEVERAL accurate polls, I'm paying no heed to these. That means we don't know if Trump is ahead in NH or nationally. Likewise, Cruzers, it blows out of the water the notion that "Cruz does better than Trump against Hillary." We don't know now, good or bad.
*While initially Trump had a classy statement of congratulations to Cruz, then he accepted full blame for not "taking Iowa seriously enough," he quickly fell into the "Cruz cheated" mantra.
Politics is vicious and I have no problem with any tricks you can get away with. Period. Moreover, it's over. You absolutely cannot fight the last battle. Every second that Trump spends on this is not only wasted time, but shows he isn't properly focused on NH and beyond. (I'll discuss the "Carson tweet/voter shaming in a minute, but not as some of my fellow Trumpers think).
Whatever happened with Carson/Cruz, the biggest takeaway of this caucus and the biggest negative for Trump is that his strength---his business acumen and organization---took a severe hit. I understand Iowa's unique religious and grass-roots character. But for someone whose reputation is based on organizing, cutting costs and getting things done, it doesn't look good. The story today from the always questionable National Journal that he still has not taken the advice of his campaign team to expand his ground operation in NH is distressing. Trump has been claiming this entire campaign (with experience to support it) that he will "put the right people" in the right positions. Iowa is an inauspicious start. Word is that Cruz has built a powerful similar grassroots network in Tennessee---another Bible Belt state where he'll do well. How The Donald responds to this challenge to his business acumen, not his political instincts, will be critical.
*Carsongate. As I said before, this is politics. I don't know who did what, and as Rush said, we can't prove that any number of voters had their votes changed. The notion that "just four votes per precinct" would give Trump the win is undeniable and just like saying that just one more touchdown a quarter would have given the Patriots the victory over the Broncos. But Cruzers, don't think this doesn't hurt Cruz and his image. He has built an image early on, well, being "St. Ted." He is the "pure" candidate, the one with God on his side. These kinds of shenanigans, combined with the "voter shaming" letter, are minor things ... but they do add up. Cruz can afford one or two of these, but if it ever gets the point that he is viewed as a hypocrite---as opposed to just "a conservative" (or even a "radical right winger"), that charge will have legs.
*The biggest winner---and yet, from another perspective, biggest loser---is Rubio. THE GOPe'S GOAL IS TO BAIT AND SWITCH RUBIO FOR CRUZ AFTER STOPPING TRUMP. Now, Cruzers, I do not think Ted intends that to happen (nor does Trump), and it's not a "conspiracy" between the two men. This is totally "strategerized" by the GOPe, knowing that one on one, Rubio cannot beat either Cruz or Trump. (I would say that to date, Trump's biggest mistake was not in skipping the Iowa debate, but in July and August, when he had Rubio in the grave, not burying him then).
But how is Rubio a loser? He exceeded expectations in Iowa and seems to have (ugh) "momentum." Except ... of ALL the candidates, Rubio not only had money and had the most campaign experience at this level, but had the entire GOPe, National Review, ALL the bloggers and the entire GOP establishment shilling for him (even attacking Jeb for wanting to stay in the race). If Rubio, with all those advantages, couldn't win, that does not speak well for his future chances. Trump may have lacked a "ground game" in Iowa, but Rubio had no excuse.
In short, we are right where the Cruzers hoped we would be: and IA win preventing a Trump landslide. But we're also where the GOPe hoped we'd be, because remember, now matter how unlikely you think it to be, THEY think they will take Cruz out easily---more easily than Trump. Even if Trump wins NH, now, nothing will be proved until a real one-on-one Trump/Cruz match occurs in the neutral battlefield of South Carolina.
Establishment much?
[ If they take Trump out and replace him with Rubio, at least we won’t have a fascist nationalist with zealous, irrational minions as president. ]
No, but we’ll have a slimy globalist with crony COCs and Wall Street lobbyists granting amnesty to thousands of illegal invaders....
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3392860/posts
Very nice analysis. I agreed, but you also raised points I hadn’t thought of. I hope it’s ok that my post isn’t as sober as your thread. I’m on opiate pain reliever today after an emergency dental trip last night.
“between Bernie/Hillary and Trump, the former are less evil than the latter.”
So, DHG, you will vote for Bernie or Hitlery over Trump?
(voting for the lesser of evils, of course).
Whew! Thanks for clearing that up. I can vote for Rubio now. /s
“gay prostitute”
Rumor or fact?
If fact, credible link that provides source documents, please, not a link to some article saying something but offering no verifiable proof.
Thanks.
Rubio has the homo arrest to deal with.. and Ken Mehlman’s gay FL GOP-e crowd will not be able to innoculate him against that in the South.
LINK?
We disagree, and few think Trump can’t accomplish things-—they just fear what he might accomplish. But with Cruz, I have very serious reservations that his massive unpopularity and lack of GOPe support (without Trump’s personality) would lead to him being unable to accomplish anything.
For what? The arrest or the former RNC head’s gay organization in FL?
“After New Hampshire, I think the picture will be much clearer between Trump or Cruz. But for now the important thing is to Stop Rubio, and make sure Yeb is killed off once and for all.”
What he said.
I know that every elected dog catcher in the country looks in the mirror and sees a President.
But to not take being a US Senator seriously because this tremendous honor which has just been given to you isn't ENOUGH for you?
That's a character defect.
Because they think that someday - SOMEDAY - it'll finally work out right.
Mr. niteowl77
“The picture it paints is not a guy who’s bi- or secretly gay”
I think he was inspired after watching “Scarface”.
He’d do anything for blow and money.
So the little boy blew......kinda like Obama.
I this IA changed little other than Rubio now has some ground to stand on when he tries to argue the establshment should rally around him... Other guys need to leave and enforce and donors should come to him... He outperformed, largely by trying to frame himself as the second coming in the final weeks... If he comes out of NH strong his argument that the others need to leave gets that much stronger... If however, he comes in 4th or 5th in NH as other establishment candidates have up on IA to put a line in the sand at NH this arguement dies quickly and the long slow thinning will continue.
As to IA polls, I don’t know why ANYONE puts faith in IA polling... I don’t recall off the top of my head anytime polling has gotten IA right. Secondly, I don’t know why anyone would have expected a Trump win in IA.. The format and electorate makeup naturally made him a long shot for a win. Had he won IA outright I would have viewed this as an insane upset and at that point and the scope of a Trump victory would be beyond the scope anyone was considering. Trump did well in IA, but I never felt he was the underdog for a win there. Too many fundamentals against him there.
With all that said at present I don’t thin IA has changed much in the long game, though I do agree Trump needs to refocus on NH.. I get the cheating tweets to steal the news cycles back but he need to pivot forward not back to keep things going.
If Trump underperformance majorly or loses NH then we have a major change in the optics of this race. If Rubio beats solidly the other establishment candidates things get a bit more interesting. If Jeb or someone else tops Rubio the field doesn’t thing as much.
If however Trump performs in NH well, he runs the table.
Time will tell, but I don’t thin IA results themselves have changed much of the optics. If NH comes in with anyone other than Trump at the top the entire races optics open up.
Of course Rubio is bi...........partisan.
Thighness was a Senator, too.
Yes, although Hillary’s fans talk about her enormous achievements “over many years”.
Thank you for that. I just posted on another thread how none of the primary candidates thrill me. All I can do is decide which candidate will screw us the least.
I don’t see any of them as a unifying force after the nomination. On top of that, I believe the GOP will lose one or both Houses in Congress in November.
We’re screwed.
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