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I this IA changed little other than Rubio now has some ground to stand on when he tries to argue the establshment should rally around him... Other guys need to leave and enforce and donors should come to him... He outperformed, largely by trying to frame himself as the second coming in the final weeks... If he comes out of NH strong his argument that the others need to leave gets that much stronger... If however, he comes in 4th or 5th in NH as other establishment candidates have up on IA to put a line in the sand at NH this arguement dies quickly and the long slow thinning will continue.

As to IA polls, I don’t know why ANYONE puts faith in IA polling... I don’t recall off the top of my head anytime polling has gotten IA right. Secondly, I don’t know why anyone would have expected a Trump win in IA.. The format and electorate makeup naturally made him a long shot for a win. Had he won IA outright I would have viewed this as an insane upset and at that point and the scope of a Trump victory would be beyond the scope anyone was considering. Trump did well in IA, but I never felt he was the underdog for a win there. Too many fundamentals against him there.

With all that said at present I don’t thin IA has changed much in the long game, though I do agree Trump needs to refocus on NH.. I get the cheating tweets to steal the news cycles back but he need to pivot forward not back to keep things going.

If Trump underperformance majorly or loses NH then we have a major change in the optics of this race. If Rubio beats solidly the other establishment candidates things get a bit more interesting. If Jeb or someone else tops Rubio the field doesn’t thing as much.

If however Trump performs in NH well, he runs the table.

Time will tell, but I don’t thin IA results themselves have changed much of the optics. If NH comes in with anyone other than Trump at the top the entire races optics open up.