Posted on 01/30/2016 5:52:42 PM PST by drewh
The most politically active members of the Republican Party have warmed to Donald Trump’s bid for the party’s presidential nomination since last summer, according to a new YouGov poll, which finds 68 percent now think he could win the general election.
While most surveys attempt to reflect the entire electorate, this one is the latest in a trio of polls focusing solely on Republican activists: well-informed party stalwarts who've run for or held office, served as party officials, worked on campaigns or volunteered their time before elections.
They provide some insight into the role of GOP political leaders in an election cycle where public opinions have repeatedly flouted the establishment. With days until the Iowa caucus and only a scattered handful of endorsements coming from elected officials in Washington, there are increasing signs that the Republican establishment is losing its grip on its activist base.
The latest survey, conducted Jan. 14-20, finds that activists now see Trump as one of three candidates, along with Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who are capable of delivering victory in November.
As in national polls, Donald Trump leads as the activists' first choice, taking 29 percent, with Cruz at a relatively close 25 percent, and Marco Rubio at 17 percent.
A gap persists between two groups: volunteers, who've donated significant time or money, and "semi-pros," who've worked in politics or run for office themselves. The volunteers split solidly for Trump, while the professionals are close to evenly divided between Trump and Cruz.
While there's little precedent for candidates who lack political experience winning a nomination, let alone the presidency, a 68 percent majority of the activists surveyed now say that Trump is capable of winning a general election.
(Excerpt) Read more at huffingtonpost.com ...
Win what? 2nd place in November?
Huffpo thinks our best shot is the Donald?
LMAO.
Yes, second place in November. That is him. Perhaps third if a credible third party candidate runs.
Headline a bit misleading as it seems that they see any three as their best bet for winning the election!
Buried in the article Trump, Cruz, Rubio could all win. es Tump headlines get clicks.
I’m curious the methodology to get a representative sample of activists. Activists could be roughly placed in 4 groups:
Establishment winners
Tea Party winners
Establishment losers
Tea Party losers
Does anyone have the slightest idea how many or each exist? Does anyone even know which of these 4 is largest?
Spies get prosecuted for giving away secrets. Someone was trusted to be Secretary of State and she handled secrets haphazardly. The Chinese could have received information hurting national security. That person wants to be rewarded and promoted to President?
Even though he will enter the General as the most loathed candidate in history?? Gallup has him at 60% disapprove to highly disapprove.
Yeah. This is gonna go well. /smh
He doesn’t get better when you “get to know him”.
If you’re sure Trump loses to hilary in Nov, how about a friendly wager? You name the amount and we put the funds in escrow. That of course assumes both teams are the candidates of record, and that there is no significant (say, >5%) 3rd party from the right.
hilary’s only chance (and she knows this) is for a 3rd-party which draws significant Repub or conservative votes away.
I say there’s no way Trump loses to hilary in a straight up one-on-one.
“...68 percent majority of the activists surveyed now say that Trump is capable of winning a general election.”
Do you want my glasses? I have a prosthetic eye to share too, if it helps.
Now you like the “experts” all of a sudden?
I wrote nothing about who I liked or trusted. I pointed out a fact of the written text that contradicted your statement. The article plainly stated:
“... a 68 percent majority of the activists surveyed now say that Trump is capable of winning a general election.”
Where did you get “2nd place” out of that?
Oh, yes - that’s your OPINION.
But YOUR opinion is more trustworthy?
Why? because YOU say so?
The problem I have with you and those in the Cruz camp is that you are all convinced of your own superiority in all things political. In short - you are all full of yourselves.
Gallup: Trump Highest Unfavorable Rating Ever Recorded
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3390872/posts
We have 2 chances to win, in my opinion: Trump and Cruz. I don’t Rubio can win, despite what the numbers currently say.
So, it comes down to the Trump and Cruz battle in the primary, I hope.
Trump is in the lead and could pull away. Cruz needs to find a way to stop him between now and Florida.
But, we’ll know come Tuesday whether Cruz’s late entry into the battle has hurt him beyond repair. Monday’s vote will tell if Cruz pulled it together in time. I don’t think he did. 2dVet thinks he did.
Cruz had no room to make any unforced errors. Beck, the mailer, the Data mining and now doubling down on the mailer.
It’s amateur hour in Iowa.
Trump is a clown. I’m so glad I’m smart enough to know that.
These things are played with last minute “October surprises”. You don’t normally expect a campaign to do themselves in.
They’ll hit Trump with something tomorrow that he’ll have no time to respond to by Monday. The GOP-E does know how to opposition research and how to get it released in every media outlet simultaneously.
Wonder what it will be? It has to be tomorrow, because if he takes Iowa he’s probably unstoppable.
>> The most politically active members of the Republican Party have warmed to Donald Trump’s bid for the party’s presidential nomination since last summer, according to a new YouGov poll, which finds 68 percent now think he could win the general election. <<
Most hated presidential candidate every recorded by Gallup. Voting for Trump now means electing Bernie Sanders.
Thought you were the one who does not trust polls? Don’t cha think we ought to let the primaries play out first?
Trump has a much wider and deeper demographic appeal then Cruz and his Bible-thumping Glen Beck side show. Sorry, but evangelicals are not majority in this country - not even close. If Cruz were to win the nomination - and that is a far greater long shot than Trump’s chances, he’d get trounced beyond recognition. Notwithstanding Gallop’s polling, Cruz is not a likable guy - he’s a whiny snot-nosed punk, with delusions of sainthood.
You may think Cruz the Second Coming of the Conservative Christ, but many others find him a nauseatingly arrogant, condescending, sniveling snitch of a beta-male. His little “VOTER VIOLATION” stunt in Iowa proves this beyond doubt - and probably killed whatever chance he had for the Iowa Caucus, and for being offered a VP slot. BTW, the Des Moines Register final poll just gave it to Trump 28 v 23 percent (16 percent to Rubio) They have a rather accurate track record, if polls are to be believed.
Come November, if he actually gets the nomination, he is going to get his smarmy holy-roller butt blown out of the water.
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