You REALLY think anyone on the Republican side that likes Bloomberg and is not thrilled with the idea of rounding up and deporting 11 million people (like the entire liberal wing of the GOP) would vote for Trump over Bloomberg?
...anyone on the Dem side who likes him would vote for Hillary or Sanders first.
I think there are a lot of people on the Dem side that will not vote for Hillary if they have a "progressive" alternative, and I think there are a lot of people on the Dem side that will not vote for a socialist if they have a more "moderate" alternative.
Trump, on the other hand, attracts some Democrats in the Northeast, and doesn't repel any Republicans, except the country clubbers/Wall Street types.
Most of the NE Republicans are more moderate than conservative, and as a group they certainly will not be on board with Trump's immigration plan. If they are given someone for whom they have voted before, someone they see as being between the extremes of Trump and Hillary/Bernie, I think a lot of them would vote for them.
I think Bloomberg, at best, would siphon off maybe 5-10 percent of the vote, and more would come from the Dem nominee than the Republican.
Oh, I don't think Bloomberg would have a chance of winning the election. But I think he COULD have a chance of picking up 2-3 normally Dem NE states - collecting just enough electoral votes to prevent anyone from getting to 270. That's when it would get interesting.
You don’t have a good handle on who would do what in the northeast. I doubt Bloomberg will run, but if he does, we shall see, won’t we?
What you've forgotten (or are suppressing) is this.
First, there's the matter of deadlines for getting on the ballots on the primaries. If this goes on I think about 6 more weeks, it's too late for Bloomy to run on the Dem side, and he *has* to go independent.
Second, there's the matter of what this does in states *other than those in New England*.
Bloomy may take NY and NJ (and, for kicks, let's say Massachusetts). Great. But the GOP was never *counting* on them for victory anyway.
But then -- what of all the other states, where the RINOs who normally backstab the GOP by secretly voting Dem in the General, go for Bloomy? At the same time a lot of "security moms" and the chronically-unemployed-under-Obama, have a choice between a gun-grabber, or Communist looney bird Sanders on the one and, and Donald (make American Great Again, close the border, pro 2nd Amendment, not a pro-life fanatic) like Trump? Yep. A large number of Dems who normally sit out, or tepidly vote Dem, go to the GOP.
Net results: Dems lose three big states they normally get. Dems lose several purple states, too.
Trump landslide.