There’s another poll with “likely to caucus” focus and it’s really close, 29 and 31 for Cruz and Trump. Also, there’s a lot of talk that the Governor’s comments had more impact than Palin, which is possible, but I can’t help but feel that it’s also a case of the media not being able to bring themselves to give Palin an ounce of relevance... they can’t do it, it would kill them to admit that it’s even remotely possible!
Trump’s concern should be the number of his Iowa supporters who have never caucused. Easy to affirm your support to a pollster; takes more effort to go out on a cold, snowy night and sit through three hours of speeches by your neighbors before making your preference.
That’s not to say Trump won’t get a lot of caucus support in Iowa. But some of the experts say his ground game is lacking, and he’s relying too much on supporters getting to the caucus locations on their own.
I think Cruz wins narrowly in Iowa and battles for second place in New Hampshire—and he may finish in the middle of the pack in the Granite State. That sets up a rather interesting, do-or-die battle in South Carolina...