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Jan 25, 2016: 3 Reasons The Iowa Polls Might Not Predict a Trump Win

"....3.Endorsements Matter In Iowa. Because Iowa is a caucus state, which means that candidates' representatives lobby voters before those voters raise their hands, endorsements matter an awful lot. On-the-ground organization matters an awful lot. That's why Silver's site still has Cruz with a 48 percent chance of winning the Iowa caucuses, with Trump at 41 percent. That's their poll-plus calculation, which counts endorsements and ground game. Just using the polls, FiveThirtyEight.com gives Trump a 55 percent chance of winning the caucuses, with Cruz at 37 percent."...

1 posted on 01/25/2016 10:03:50 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: All
Jan 25, 2016: FR THREAD: Rick Perry endorses Ted Cruz "...."Of those individuals who have a chance to win the Republican primary, at this juncture, from my perspective, Ted Cruz is by far the most consistent conservative in that crowd," Perry said. "And that appears to be down to two people."

Perry, who is famously skilled at retail politics, will campaign with Cruz Tuesday across Iowa, and will join Iowa GOP Rep. Steve King to stump for Cruz again Wednesday. Perry and King will both join Cruz at a Des Moines rally Wednesday night.

The endorsement gives Cruz the blessing of the longest-serving governor in Texas history, just as the senator faces intensifying heat from other veteran politicians, including from his colleagues in Washington, Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad and former Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole.

2 posted on 01/25/2016 10:05:17 PM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

He reminds me of a guy who thought someone else had a chance late last year.


3 posted on 01/25/2016 10:05:36 PM PST by DoughtyOne (Free Republic Caucus: vote daily / watch for the thread / Starts 01/20 midnight to midnight EDST)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

i think it’s encouraging that a loser like Walker knows so much more than several national polls that spend millions of dollars trying to figure things out.

I’m pretty sure than means Cruz is a lock in Iowa.


4 posted on 01/25/2016 10:06:29 PM PST by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Gov. Scott Walker is absolutely correct!

“Many believe Trump supporters are less committed to turn out.”

Exactly.


7 posted on 01/25/2016 10:07:47 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
"I don't necessarily think the person in the lead represents the majority of the voters," Gov. Walker told 27 News Tuesday. "He may represent a plurality of a big field, but I think things will probably change if the field narrows."

IOW, Trump has his 30% or so who would support him even if he shot people in the middle of the street, but the vast majority of Republicans who do NOT want Trump are split among all the remaining candidates. When the herd thins, where will those people gravitate toward? Probably not Trump.

23 posted on 01/25/2016 10:21:21 PM PST by Charles Henrickson (Social and constitutional conservative)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Walker is a courageous governor. I admire and respect him. However, he was a big bust as a presidential candidate and doesn’t need to audition as a political pundit.


32 posted on 01/25/2016 10:27:53 PM PST by map
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Walker and Cruz! Together again! Now Donald Trump is definitely done! Going to a fun rally where you spend four-five hours to hear a 50 minute speech is so much easier than going to an hour long caucus. None of those Trump rallyers will bother to caucus.


40 posted on 01/25/2016 10:35:37 PM PST by SubMareener (Save us from Quarterly Freepathons! Become a MONTHLY DONOR!)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife
If Ted manages to win Iowa it will be the first time a candidate who didn't screw over the American taxpayer by endorsing the ridiculously wasteful and destructive ethanol subsidies, did.
Trump pandering to Iowa corn farmer welfare moochers put him ahead of Ted in Iowa not Sarah Palin.
57 posted on 01/25/2016 10:50:56 PM PST by Happy Rain (CRUZ 2016 TRUE BELIEVERS CHOSE HITLER TOO)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Walker supporters are unlikely to show up


71 posted on 01/25/2016 11:14:03 PM PST by stocksthatgoup (how many laws has Cruz sponsored that have become law?)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

This is from the guy who dropped a 22 point head start in the primary and who s last gasp on exiting was a not so subtle plea to keep Trump from winning at all costs?

Yea, he was my favorite going in.

His bitterness is difficult to hide.


72 posted on 01/25/2016 11:14:05 PM PST by Fhios (FR inception date 2015. I must be a mole for whoever I'm currently supporting.)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Trump can afford to lose all the caucus states, and will still win the nomination if he wins the “winner take all” primary states.

Cruz, on the other hand, CANNOT afford to lose Iowa. If, with all his “ground game”, Cruz loses Iowa, then he’s pretty-much done.


120 posted on 01/26/2016 2:41:43 AM PST by SauronOfMordor (Socialists want YOUR wealth redistributed, never THEIRS!)
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To: Cincinatus' Wife

Hahahah. Cruz is supposed to gain cause the first one to drop out, who was the single biggest flop in the race. “Endorses” him? Can’t find another Beck? How about Kanye?


122 posted on 01/26/2016 3:51:05 AM PST by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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