Posted on 01/25/2016 5:14:14 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
AMES, Iowa -- As the candidates make their final push across Iowa, many caucus-goers are still trying to decide which candidate they'll support. Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Ted Cruz lead their respective parties, according to a new Iowa State University/WHO-HD Iowa Caucus Poll released Monday. However, there is little room separating them from the next candidate.
On the Democratic side, 47.4 percent of likely caucus-goers surveyed said they support Clinton. That's compared to 45 percent who said they favor Bernie Sanders. This is a significant jump from the first Iowa Caucus Poll in November, in which Sanders came in a distant second at 27.8 percent. Less than 1 percent of those surveyed in this latest poll said they'll caucus for Martin O'Malley.
On the Republican side, 25.8 percent of likely caucus-goers are backing Cruz, while 18.9 percent say they support Donald Trump. Ben Carson came in third (13.4 percent) followed by Marco Rubio (12.3 percent), Rand Paul (6.9 percent), Jeb Bush (3.8 percent), Mike Huckabee (3.7 percent) and Carly Fiorina (1.1 percent). Rick Santorum, Chris Christie and John Kasich registered less than 1 percent....
(Excerpt) Read more at whotv.com ...
To put it another way, a Trump rally is like a WWE arena event as opposed to a caucus being more like a WWE training camp.
These people are largely spectators, not actual participants.
I believe so. Don Trump is a “former” Democrat, isn’t he?
Well, if you're confident of that, you should place huge bets in Vegas against Trump in Iowa. Make a lot of easy money.
You need to get out more. Also, a bunch of them are North and West of you.
The only poll that counts is the one next week.
Like I said, make some easy money in Vega based on your superior knowledge. Lol.
Americans are forbidden to bet on political races, even overseas.
In Texas?
The truth is that few of these big-media polls are phony, whether they give Trump a huge lead or Cruz a huge lead. Pollsters simply don’t know how to predict who will come out to the polls and how to proportionately measure them. Worse yet, their attempts to be subjective make them prone to learning the wrong lesson. For instance, in 2012, Romney’s GOTV program was an utter, horrifying technical failure that cost him millions of votes, but most pollsters simply skewed their turnout projections leftward for 2014.
That said, there are some weird shenanigans among some of the smaller polls:
Some pollsters want to make a name for themselves by predicting outcomes rather than measuring poll questions Zogby rose to prominence in the 1990s doing this.
Some campaigns take numerous polls, and only release the ones most favorable to them; given natural margins of error, they can often find an outlier poll that makes them look great.
The final trick is “push-polling.” Pollsters ask a few questions designed to get people feeling one way or another towards a candidate before asking them if they’d vote for that candidate. Normally, in a late-season general election, push-polling doesn’t work so well: people know who they like, and pollsters can only push a couple of percent. ( It’s VERY effective on issues polling because most people can see two sides of any issue.) But I’ve seen some surprisingly mainstream pollsters (NBC, CNN) use push polls in the primary, and when there were so many candidates so marginally known, it’s probably much more effective.
One example of a push poll. (This is only one poll, and I don’t mean at all to suggest that push-polling is behind Trump’s high numbers; it plainly is not.) NBC (IIRC) asked people if they thought keeping Americans safe from terrorists was very important to them, asked them who has taken the boldest stance against terrorism, and then asked them who they wanted to vote for.
I'm already making a lot of money. But none of it easy. And basically I don't place wagers; I found out the hard way that is never "easy" money.
Trump is losing in this poll, toss it.
There are always ways to bet, online or elsewhere.
You should have heard the Cruzers just a couple of weeks ago. 'The only polls that matter are the ones in Iowa!' LOL
That’s only because the Trump-Industrial-Media-Complex doesn’t want to cover this poll. All the rest of the polls are hiding Ted’s TRUE lead.
And face it, we all know he’s leading. With Glenn Beck on his side, how could he not be?
If you don’t mind jail food.
Is that where they moved the Cruz campaign headquarters?
Beck also gave Cruz George Washington's mystical compass. There's no way Cruz can fail now.
Read the article...
"These Iowa Caucus Poll results are based on registered voters who 'definitely' or 'probably' will attend the Feb. 1 caucus. "
I don't bet either, and what will happen in Iowa is a big unknown. I think many Trump supporters will turn out. It's a question of how deep their commitment will prove to be. Trump could swamp Cruz in Iowa if the rally attendance proves to be any indicator of their commitment.
You are a detestable person, but I’ll overlook that just to ask, do you ever have anything to say that makes even an ounce of sense?
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