Posted on 01/24/2016 9:56:04 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
With only a few days until the Iowa caucuses, the political world is buzzing with anticipation for the presidential nomination process to go beyond polls and speeches to actual voting and caucusing.
Paying attention to the difference between these two types of processes is important because caucuses attract a very different set of citizens -- more ideological, more consistent and more partisan participants. We think this difference will matter.
So far, people have focused on Donald Trump's unexpectedly strong showing in the polls and on tensions between "outsider" candidates (like Trump) and more traditional "establishment" candidates. On the Democratic side, the question is how the expected front-runner Hillary Clinton will fare against an insurgent campaign from self-declared democratic socialist Bernie Sanders. Now, the critical question for all of these campaigns is how to get their supporters to show up.
As illustrated in the most recent CNN poll, different assumptions about the set of participants make a big difference. For instance, in the Iowa caucuses, Trump's lead disappears when only considering poll respondents who have previously caucused....
(Excerpt) Read more at gantdaily.com ...
Donald Trump 68 c
Ted Cruz 35 c
Market is leaving Cruz ship.
https://www.predictit.org/Market/1327/Who-will-win-the-2016-Iowa-Republican-caucuses
Will those folks be caucusing?
Cruz can’t even win FR’s caucus. He’s quickly becoming a longshot in Iowa.
Forget caucusing, Tweeting is where the future is. Trump leads all in tweets and followers.
Actually he’s won every straw poll here since the beginning. What are you talking about?
It’s encouraging to see that the main stream media still dismisses Trump.
According to our latest polls-plus forecast,
Ted Cruz has a 48% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses.
Donald Trump has a 41% chance of winning the Iowa caucuses
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/iowa-republican/
Yeah, we all remember how awesome Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich did when they were the overwhelming favorite of FReepers.
He doesn’t ... he wasn’t here yet.
Now read the article.
I never voted in a single one of them, never even knew they existed. I've voted in the new ones being setup that are advertised in thread after thread, and Trump is winning 58 percent to Cruz's 36 now. He's won each day for the past 4 or 5 days now, and his gap with Cruz just gets bigger and bigger.
I really liked Fred Thompson... unfortunately he fizzled out, don’t think he wanted it very badly.
Related: even if Trump wins 45% of the NH delegates based on primary results, he’ll still be hurting come convention time because he doesn’t have the ground game to secure convention delegates.
I’ve yet to see a realistic assessment of the delegate counts that doesn’t have a brokered convention between Trump and some other candidate.
How many of those voting for Trump got here before 2013? Or 2015, for that matter? Reminds me of the Ronulans.
Newt Gingrich got ganged up on by Drudge working with the Mitt Romney campaign, as well as Hush Bimbo and the rest of the talk radio hosts on bloody thursday. Newt didn't have the staying power to survive the type of abuse that Trump survives on any single day from the "conservative" media. Newt made the mistake of trusting "conservatives" too much. Though it's perfectly obvious Newt was the last, best candidate running, despite all his flaws, and had the best chance of beating Obama. Saint Rick was a loser with no ideas and never had any hope. He was running Ted Cruz's Evangelical campaign and even had the horrors of Porn at the top of his Issues page on his website. But Mark Levin, Rush, et al., chose to sabotage Newt as part of the establishment, despite the fact he had the best chance of rallying Americans around his platform. Then Santorum lost and Romney won then lost to Obozo as expected.
I’m all in for Trump, not because he is the better man but because he can actually win the presidency and it’s a must win situation this time out.
I’m praying for a Trump/Cruz ticket... I know it seems unlikely after the recent animosity betwixt the two good men but I keep reminding myself how much Americans love a good reconciliation.
After Trump starts running the table it will be time for kiss-and-make-up ... and then a Trump/Cruz barnstorm across the USA!
I’d love to see them on stage together giving the democrats hell...and I’d love to see the Freepers from both camps come back together again...I’m SICK of the bickering here :-(
Stay classy.
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