There Are Three New Polls In Iowa. Who's Winning? [CNN/ORC outlier? Cruz gains in poll]

Daily Wire ^ | January 21, 2016 | By: Aaron Bandler

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Three new Iowa polls were released on Thursday, and the polls show that real estate mogul Donald Trump has the edge over Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tx.).

A CNN/ORC poll shows Trump with a double-digit lead over Cruz:

However, this does not necessarily guarantee a win for Trump:

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Phil Kerpen ✔ @kerpen

Note this has always been Trump's best Iowa poll and Cruz has GAINED on him since last month. 3:14 PM - 21 Jan 2016

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This is accurate, as the previous CNN/ORC poll in Iowa had Trump at 33 percent and Cruz at 20 percent. The poll also may not accurately reflect turnout:

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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

A lot of differences in these polls are based on how tightly polls are screening voters. Looser screens help Bernie & Trump.

@NateSilver538

For instance, the CNN poll implies a turnout of about 320K in the Iowa GOP caucus, versus ~120K in 2012. 3:19 PM - 21 Jan 2016

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That would explain why the margin of error is at +/-6 percent.

When the turnout is measured at 2012 levels, Cruz leads at 30 percent and Trump is second at 28 percent.

The CNN poll may then be an outlier, as a Loras College poll shows Trump with a one-point lead over Cruz:

Trump: 26 percent
Cruz: 25 percent
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fl.): 13 percent
Dr. Ben Carson: 8 percent
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R): 6 percent
Ohio Gov. John Kasich (R): 4 percent
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R): 3 percent
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R): 3 percent
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.): 3 percent
Former HP CEO Carly Fiorina: 2 percent
Former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.): 1 percent

However, a KBUR poll shows Cruz with a two-point lead over Trump:

Cruz: 27 percent
Trump: 25 percent
Carson: 11 percent
Rubio: 9 percent
Bush: 7 percent
Christie: 4 percent
Huckabee: 4 percent
Paul: 3 percent
Kasich: 3 percent
Fiorina: 3 percent
Santorum: 1 percent

Radio host Steve Deace, who has endorsed Cruz and is well-versed with the political scene in Iowa, explained on Twitter that the current polls likely understate Cruz's support:

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Steve Deace @SteveDeaceShow

Trump probably needs to be at least five points ahead to withstand Cruz organizational advantage. 10:35 AM - 21 Jan 2016

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Steve Deace @SteveDeaceShow

Final CNN poll of Iowa in 2008 had Hillary winning by two. She finished third. 10:38 AM - 21 Jan 2016

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Steve Deace @SteveDeaceShow

Final CNN poll of Iowa 2008 had Romney winning by 3. He lost by 9. 10:39 AM - 21 Jan 2016

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[LS]

Ah, still don’t have a comeback for 9/12 polls showing Cruz losing and all of them showing him slipping?

[CottonBall]

Doesn’t really matter, since Iowa is a proportional state. So one gets 1 delegate more than the other. The winner-talk-all states are what will make the difference.

[Bobby_Taxpayer]

Trump himself may be a deal maker, but in the caucus state of Iowa, I don’t think he has the organization it takes. I could be wrong.

[SmokingJoe]

Tell me something: Can you give me even a single case of voter turnout as much as TRIPLING from one election cycle to the next like CNN is projecting in their poll?

[SmokingJoe]

Iowa is not about number of delegates won, which is tiny. Its about who dominates the headlines with a win and who gets the momentum to influence and change polls in the subsequent states.

[SmokingJoe]

Dream on!

[SmokingJoe]

You mean like the other twice divorced very liberal New Yorker who led in the polls for 12 months and won the nomination?
Oh wait, he ended up winning ZERO states. President Giuliani says “Hello” from fantasy island.

[Chauncey Uppercrust]

Thanks so much for the link... you agree with me though I am sure that MSM is only running with the CNN poll right now, as if the 2 other polls plus CNN true pic are not being mentioned... In fairness to CNN John King he was somewhat honest about the CNN poll and cautioned people... he is not as bad as some at CNN

FOX this second just had Harris Faulkner saying nothing but a double digit lead for Trump, no mention of the other 2 + 1 poll

Even Hannity last night only showed 2 very favorable polls of Trump... not everybody follows as closely as you and I, the masses are still swayed by MSM, so the effect of repeating these bad Cruz polls over and over may be the benefit for Trump they are after

PRAY :)

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