I can’t vouch for the poll but if Cruz doesn’t win in IA he’s done. He’ll finish 4th or 5th in NH and then just sink lower. His polling strength, based on just a couple of polls, in IA is what’s kept his campaign alive so far.
Cruz was done yesterday.
TRUMP schlonged him with perfection in timing. The same day news cycle of governor of Iowa disses Cruz, and Palin SHOCKS America with her endorsement for TRUMP, all following a rousing reception at Liberty University and the gushing support of Fallwell, who can not endorse.
Evangelicals got to see this.
Game, set, MATCH.
It will come down to the ground game in Iowa, as it always does—the ability of the candidate’s organization to get folks out to the caucus locations. As more than a few pundits have observed, 30,000 votes can win the Hawkeye Caucuses.
From what I’ve heard, Cruz is far better organized at the county level than Trump. The Donald believes the enthusiasm displayed at his rallies will translate into supporters getting out to caucus locations, largely on their own—and it may work.
On the other hand, some of those supporting Trump may decide to stay home on a cold, snowy night in Iowa. I may be completely wrong, but I think Cruz has a better organization to turn out his voters, and that’s how you win in Iowa. We shall see.