It will come down to the ground game in Iowa, as it always does—the ability of the candidate’s organization to get folks out to the caucus locations. As more than a few pundits have observed, 30,000 votes can win the Hawkeye Caucuses.
From what I’ve heard, Cruz is far better organized at the county level than Trump. The Donald believes the enthusiasm displayed at his rallies will translate into supporters getting out to caucus locations, largely on their own—and it may work.
On the other hand, some of those supporting Trump may decide to stay home on a cold, snowy night in Iowa. I may be completely wrong, but I think Cruz has a better organization to turn out his voters, and that’s how you win in Iowa. We shall see.
Cruz has a great ground game, but so did Howard Dean.
The big unknown is the Trump ground game, if they don’t turn out the vote Trump is dead, and I mean that. if Trump doesn’t get out the vote in Iowa, and at least place a decent 2nd place, he should pack up his bags and end his campaign then and there.
IF he does bring out the vote... Then this could be a rock and roll primary.
It is uncharacteristic of Trump to let someone outdo him on anything. I will not be surprised if we see a fleet of limos and helicopters taking people to vote.
It is uncharacteristic of Trump to let someone outdo him on anything. I will not be surprised if we see a fleet of limos and helicopters taking people to vote.