Posted on 01/19/2016 10:44:32 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
It has been a little over a week since I've put out some presidential percentages, mainly because there was not a lot of change the last 7 days. Yesterday and today, there has been quite a significant change. Running the simulation, with the newest poll numbers from around 20 new polls, we get this:
Hillary Clinton - 45.5% (-4.5%)
Donald Trump - 34.9% (+13.9%)
Bernie Sanders - 17.1% (+2.5%)
Marco Rubio - 1.4% (-10.1%)
Ted Cruz - 1.0% (-1.9%)
Others - <.1% (-.1%)
Hillary Clinton still has the best shot of becoming president, but she is less than a coin flip against the rest of the field. She wins the Democratic nomination almost 80% of the time, but she runs about even with Trump, beats Cruz every time, and loses to Rubio most of the time.
Donald Trump makes the biggest jump, mostly at the expense of Marco Rubio. Trump has been the program's favorite nominee for a few weeks, but now he appears to be the presumptive Republican nominee, winning the nomination about 90% of the time.
Bernie Sanders is the only other nominee to gain in the standings, winning the presidency about once every 6 simulations. It should also be noted that he loses against Republicans (mainly Trump) about once every 40 times when the two go head to head. His main competition in the presidential race is clearly Hillary Clinton.
(Excerpt) Read more at overtimepolitics.com ...
PING
Gotta question anything that has Bernie at 17%. And dems total at over 60%.
Rooting for Trump. Voting for Trump.
Resigned to Hillary’s filthy tricks stealing the election. This is about more than winning for her, it’s about staying out of prison. She will pull out all the stops.
Where are they getting their polling numbers from? I was on real Clear and it hasn’t changed since the 13 of January! Reuters is of the jan 18 but don’t match those numbers
I'm actually kinda OK with that. My unscientific analysis: Bernie has about a 1/3 chance to win the Democratic nomination (because Hillary has a 1/3 chance of getting into deep legal trouble).
And then Bernie has about a 2/5 chance to win the general election (because of the free-loader vote, and last-minute MSM smears against the GOP candidate).
So 1/3 x 2/5 = 2/15 = 13%
Of course, I picked Pittsburgh over Denver, so what do I know?
I think Hillary has about a 95% chance of serious legal trouble.
One other thing. In this case (the Hillary legal issues) it isn’t a he said/she said issue and determining who’s lying. There’s hard evidence that is what it is.
I hope Hillary just drops dead ....literally
A heart attack or massive stroke , anything fatal
The Jezebel of our time
where is that one man ?
Just !not want any decision to be made so O can pardon her.
Indicted yes. Convicted not yet!
Fun thread. Thanks BFAC.
Here is a scary scenario that likely also has about a 13% chance of becoming reality.
Hiliary gets || this close to indictment and gets sudden Breitbart syndrome. Bernie suspends his campaign ‘out of respect’; the world “morns” for days on end; Hiliary’s ‘leadership legacy’ 24x7; Trump looses his media mojo because he can’t cut through the Hiliary coverage; Biden cries on national TV and swears he will run ‘for Hiliary and for the country’; he soon picks Elizabeth as his VP; no one hears from Bernie substantially ever again; Biden and Warren go on to capture the ‘grief stricken’ electorate. Trump goes back to his own business; the fundamental transformation continues on steroids.
Could happen, no?
;) Sleep tight !
This early in the AM Rubio loses To Clinton?? allow me to pinch myself YES awake, not dreamin’ Are these people smokin? No RubeNO NO NO
Go TRUMP
Go Cruz!
To the top!!
Make AMERICA GREAT
I think the only way Sanders could win the GE is if the GOP fouls up big time. The dem power brokers know this, so they’ll do anything to keep him from being nominated.
If Hillary gets in real legal trouble, sadly I think it’s more likely I see a unicorn walking down the street, but if she does, either they let a new candidate in or throw their support behind O’Malley.
All in in, single digits for Bernie, low single digits. That’s the way I see it.
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