But there are other certainties...
I've been visiting FR off and on for some time now. I've watched multiple elections cycles come and go in that time. One thing that is for certain is that the notion of persuasion and the changing of minds on FR is mostly a futile fantasy. No matter the facts you present you'll get cult like responses that demonstrate a total and complete imperviousness to any evidence that you might present. I've watched one election cycle after another, their lemming like marches off the cliffs decrying the blasphemies of any and all who would dare suggest that they should alter course.
Yes... There are certainties... If history is any guide... Given a choice, we will chose poorly.
Trump probably wins NH. Therefore Trump does not have to have Iowa; it is far more nearly the case that Cruz does, to get to SC with a win.If you want to see a historical implosion parallel which IMHO is more germane, look at the comparison between Bernie Sanders and Eugene McCarthy. Sanders may not be an entirely credible nominee of a major party, but like Eugene McCarthy, he is running against a presumptive nominee of his party who has serious liabilities.
LBJ was not ethically compromised in the way Hillary is, but his party had turned against his signature policy - the war in Viet Nam. McCarthy only had to beat expectations, not win outright, in NH to destroy the inevitability meme associated with the LBJ reelection campaign.
Sanders will do better than McCarthy did in 1968, and Trump will erode - may already have eroded the legitimacy of the Clinton candidacy. The Democrats have to know that their best case, as it were, with Hillary is a presidency that starts with less moral legitimacy than the previous Clinton administration ended with. They may think that Hillary can evade legal accountability for emailgate, but they know that the letter of the law qualifies her for serious accountability. And they know that another shoe would inevitably drop. With the Clintons, it always does.
I seem to be the only one pointing out that
implies that the Clinton Foundation is unconstitutional absent prior congressional authorization. But I imagine, perhaps fancifully, that somebody will read that and say that “the emperor has no clothes.” And should be in jail. If Trump thinks Cruz has a constitutional issue for the courts . . .
- Article 1 Section 9:
- No title of nobility shall be granted by the United States: and no person holding any office of profit or trust under them, shall, without the consent of the Congress, accept of any present, emolument, office, or title, of any kind whatever, from any king, prince, or foreign state
All in all I do not see that Hillary inevitably will be the nominee of the Democrat Party. Not that I am confident that Sander is, either, but that others will smell blood if Sanders does well in Iowa and NH.
We should not count on the Democrats to nominate Hillary. No patriot would wish it.