Posted on 01/16/2016 9:25:53 AM PST by TBBT
I have been saying for a while that the fundamentals still matter. I think they do. They particularly matter in caucuses, which are not like primaries. Caucuses require a lot of time, are not always where you’d show up to vote in a primary, etc. If those fundamentals really do matter, Donald Trump probably cannot win Iowa. He can’t because he has not invested in a ground game operation there.
The New York Times has a pretty detailed look at Donald Trump, which makes him sound more like the second coming of Howard Dean 2004 than an outsider on the cusp of winning it all. Dean, you will remember, stole headlines across the nation in 2004 for his enterprising operation. He campaign had money pouring in, he had more energy and larger rallies than any other candidate. But while his campaign was investing in flash, tech, and coliseums for the crowds showing up, the other campaigns were investing in boots on the ground in Iowa to get out voters. Polling showed Dean ahead almost to the end, trending down slightly before the caucus. But CNN, on January 15, 2004, had Howard Dean at 19% and Wesley Clark at 14%. In the end, Dean came in third.
Trump looks like he is repeating that mistake and if his supporters see their man bleed, particularly when he has not really bled this campaign season, it may become impossible to stop that bleeding.
(Excerpt) Read more at theresurgent.com ...
But there are other certainties...
I've been visiting FR off and on for some time now. I've watched multiple elections cycles come and go in that time. One thing that is for certain is that the notion of persuasion and the changing of minds on FR is mostly a futile fantasy. No matter the facts you present you'll get cult like responses that demonstrate a total and complete imperviousness to any evidence that you might present. I've watched one election cycle after another, their lemming like marches off the cliffs decrying the blasphemies of any and all who would dare suggest that they should alter course.
Yes... There are certainties... If history is any guide... Given a choice, we will chose poorly.
Eric Erickson articles are banned from FreeRepublic.com just like Eric Erickson is banned from ever hosting another Rush Limbaugh show.
...or they should be anyway.
Heheheheheheh! That made me chuckle. Erick Erickson is funny.
Last gasp at TDS.
“He can’t because he has not invested in a ground game operation there.”
Is this a fact or speculation? I’ve read Trump does have a ground game in Iowa - they just don’t talk about it.
We could have a “Kiddies Table” section for those who like this stuff.
I fully expect Trump not to win Iowa, due to the nature of caucus format.. However I don’t conjecture from that that he’ll fall apart. I expect he’ll run the table once primaries happen in states that have standard voting.
If on the other hand Trump does win Iowa his eventual general election win will be even bigger.
Time will tell
He’s been working on Iowa since March 2015.
What?
No Twister chart?
;D
The posted articles in FR are getting exponentially more ridiculous every day.
I cant wait until after NH, when Trump is clearly on the road to victory and a lot of this crapola will be flushed directly down the toilet.
Erick Erickson. Enough said.
I read one report that said Trump has a media blackout on his Iowa ground operation.
“If history is any guide... Given a choice, we will chose poorly.”
2008 & 2012 proved that.
Please don’t flame me, I just have a tactics question after reading your reply.
I know it’s very close in Iowa, so there is a possibility that Trump may lose. Wouldn’t it be smarter to downplay expectations? This goes for Cruz too. I just saw part of Trump’s NH rally and he sure is sounding like he is going to win everywhere.
Interesting. I don’t doubt it.
“Keep your plans as dark as night, then move like a thunderbolt” - Sun Tzu, Art of War
Your post #1 sums up the Cruz clan perfectly, thank you.
“”One thing that is for certain is that the notion of persuasion and the changing of minds on FR is mostly a futile fantasy. No matter the facts you present you’ll get cult like responses that demonstrate a total and complete imperviousness to any evidence that you might present.””
Your opus can come soon enough.
You offend this site and it’s members.
Did you ever consider nobody agrees with you, because they are thinking three moves ahead... they don’t suffer from acute myopicism.
“Donald Trump Has a Howard Dean Moment in Iowa”
Man, that is f’n powerful. I mean deep. Reeeeal deep.
You post articles written by nobodies who stare at their basement computer screens in stained t-shirts and expect us all to bow down.
What a pant load.
.... Eric Erickson articles are banned from FreeRepublic.com just like Eric Erickson is banned from ever hosting another Rush Limbaugh show....or they should be anyway.
You believe free speech only belongs to you?
“Erick Erickson. Enough said.”
Yep, all that one needs to know.
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