Posted on 01/15/2016 7:51:50 AM PST by GonzoII
Months ago, during the Summer of Trump, Republicans looked at the appearance of this gross, comic, orange interloper among them with a mix of shock and disdain. Fox News tried to discredit him as a serious candidate; nobody else onstage knew quite what to do with him. Since then, Trump has created facts on the ground, making himself an indispensable element of the party. He now seems completely normal.Part of it is that Trump has gotten better, more polished. His cartoonish facial gestures come less frequently. He is less outrageous (and less funny). He seems to control his tone more effectively.
But mainly, Republicans have decided to start treating him as a regular candidate and a member of their party in good standing, rather than an impostor who has hijacked it on a lark. He faced the same softball questions as everybody else, with no follow-ups. (Would you put your business in a blind trust if elected? Trump: Oh, yeah, I'd let my kids run it. In other words, no.)
Jeb Bush went after Trump on his unfathomable proposal to exclude all Muslim immigrants, but he did so almost as a supplicant, asking him to "reconsider." It was as if Bush was afraid Trump would turn on him again, and Trump, recognizing Bush's gesture as a plea for mercy, reciprocated.
Signs have popped up everywhere that Republicans have not only begun to accept Trump as one of them, a regular candidate, but to even resign themselves to his candidacy.
From my convos,GOP estab mood on Trump moving from fear/loathing to resignation/rationalization,ie he'd run better than cruz & slam Hillary - Rich Lowry (@RichLowry) January 13, 2016
Same source (when I ask what's happening on the ground): "On the ground? Everyone literally is getting resigned to Trump as nominee." - Matt Lewis (@mattklewis) January 14, 2016
Trump was Trump and that means he had a good night. I give him a 60% shot of being the GOP nominee. - Ari Fleischer (@AriFleischer) January 15, 2016
Indeed, Trump's numbers have not only risen, but the entire backdrop of his position has changed. The percentage of Republican voters who could see themselves supporting Trump has grown from 23 percent last March to 65 percent now. Trump could now beat Marco Rubio (a popular figure within the party) in a head-to-head matchup. He remains far from inevitable. The first vote will still not be cast for weeks. Yet those of us who believed Republican elites would kill Trump's candidacy out of self-preservation have to face the increasingly plausible prospect that, for whatever reason, they may lay down their arms before a shot has been fired.
The polls at RCP say the exact opposite.
More and more people are recognizing this fact.
Fact? fiction more like.
I am not going by polls, especially this far out from the general election.
I am going by his clear ability to control the debate. In some ways, he is superior to Reagan in his ability to set the media agenda for the entire nation.
Why?
First off, he is not well known outside of those who follow politics. Consider that reality.
Next, he may be highly intelligent, but he is not particularly inspiring, and his presentation is sub par.
Mostly, the dems and media will mercilessly pound him as the focal point of the government shutdown a little while back. Those who closely follow politics will dismiss this point as negligible, but if you go back to my first point above, you must accept the fact that the overwhelming majority of voters do not follow the details of the whole story and have the “facts” (sound bites, jokes, half truths)impressed upon them from biased sources. He will never overcome this issue no matter how much Cruz supporters insist otherwise, and it will be what I believe to be an insurmountable obstacle to winning the general election.
The GOPe is incapable of taking Trump out for several reasons:
A. He doesn’t play by the standard political rules. Whenever they play the gotcha game, he doubles down and takes ownership of the accusation. This resonates with non-political types.
B. This has never been about Trump, it is about the GOPe. His appeal is that he ain’t them. The utter loathing for the establishment is everywhere. Trump being the astute observer that he is, has decided to tap into this loathing.
At this point, for the GOPe to take out Trump; they would have to prove beyond a shadow of the doubt, that they are the superior choice for turning this country around. Based on prior performance, I believe that they have a snowball’s chance of that.
Barring Trump taking Trump out, he will be your next President for better or worse.
Thank you Senator Dewhurst.
True conservative substance is what will trump Trump.
He also has so much money, of which he reminds us ALL the time, and that is one thing that the GOPe has always been able to hold over people's heads - whether they will get the financial backing of the big GOPe donors.
Trump doesn't need their money and they fear that, but we must realize that billions of dollars and building lots of buildings is not a virtue in and of itself.
Cruz has proven that he does not need the GOPe money or influence and that also makes him a huge threat to the powers that be.
So, the choice will really be between those who want true conservative substance and those who want The Donald Dazzle.
Either way the GOPe will not be happy.
As for me and my family, we are going to go with the guy who knows the Constitution inside and out AND has defended first principles substantially and not just with words at a rally.
If you could only hear yourself
That was, IMHO, Reagan's biggest mistake...though he may have felt that it was absolutely critical to defeat Carter so as to save the nation, and was willing to accept GHWB simply to unify the Party and be successful in November.
I hope that Trump avoids that like the plague. I think that he has the natural charisma (not because he's charming - he's not - but because he projects the image and reality of being a winner) to win all by himself, even with a pet rock as his Veep. Few vote for the Veep (Sarah Palin being a notable exception); more often, people vote AGAINST the candidate because the Veep choice was so lousy (Goldwater/Miller). Jeff Sessions would be a great choice - he hasn't pissed anyone off, and would make for a LOCK on the South, and Cruz could be the A.G. to prosecute the Clintons and Obama, helping to choose federal judges, with an eye toward being named to the Supreme Court to replace some uber-Lib. Thus, no issues about Cruz' birth, and Cruz has a LONG run affecting the nation for the better.
With no hesitation, points to his family, “they will take care of it. My #1 job is to take care of America.â€
The next generation of Trumps will need to do so before very long ANYWAY - and what better excuse to hand it over now, while he can still act in an advisory position for 10-20 years, than "Hey, I can't do it, I've got a country to run."
Cruz would lose the general election. Trump will win it.
After TPA there just isn’t a path to 270 EV for Cruz. MI/OH/PA no chance. Trump takes MI and OH in the general without breaking a sweat, IMO. Trump or bust.
After TPA there just isnt a path to 270 EV for Cruz. MI/OH/PA no chance. Trump takes MI and OH in the general without breaking a sweat, IMO. Trump or bust.
President Trump: > 300 EV
I’m not sure anyone believes that Trump is a Conservative. His personal message is more Nationalism than anything else and this is what has captured the attention of the non-political type.
These people are now scared by everything that is wrong in this country. They want someone who promises to stop the illegal invasion, not import terrorists, bring back jobs, improve the economy and kill terrorists in there own homes. None of these positions are exclusively conservative, and given Trumps known record for achievement, they believe he can deliver.
Make no mistake, even though a slim majority of citizens self identify as conservative leaning, there is no national outcry for more conservatism. Traditional conservative institutions such as churches and the military continue to lurch leftward and the war on traditional values and the nuclear family continues unabated.
Conservatives have allowed their opposition to define them in the public consciousness and now hardcore conservatism actually terrifies too many people, conservatives included.
There is a lot of work that needs to be done to actually move the country back to Constitutional conservatism.
“he’d run better than cruz “
Not according to the RCP poll average.
The answer to "is he real or is he Memorex?" is relatively simple - and the answer is "REAL."
Why? Easy, because Trump has never operated in a political environment. Oh, he's dealt with politicians, but that's different (while bringing in some useful skills). He has ONLY dealt in a brutally-competitive market, maybe one of the most brutal and competitive, that of the NYC real estate market. There are few compromises - you either make the deal or you don't. Yes, there are some compromises, but there's ALWAYS competition - and especially in New York nobody gives a damn if the other guy's feelings are hurt (I think that you could easily test the veracity of that statement with what Trump has said). Trump has played to win for 50 years, and has done so exceptionally well. Yeah, he has some failures, welcome to the world of capitalism - NO ONE succeeds all the time, not Trump, Buffet, Gates, Rockefeller, Carnagie, J.P. Morgan - NO ONE. After 50 years of operating in a particular way, and having to answer to no one, he isn't going to change...except that now he'll be working for the country and not his own wallet.
For those arguing that he is just doing it to line his pockets, I say that he is decades beyond needing to do that - and the man has kids and grandkids that he wants to see have a real country in which to live. He's doing it for them, not himself, and we all get to go along for the ride.
I buy your take totally. The hard nosed Manhattan businessman is precisely what Cruz was describing.
Any time the actual principles outlined in our Founding documents are in play we have true conservatism. Because those documents are based on long-held Judeo-Christian ethics and philosophy. When we veer from those we enter areas which are not conducive to truth.
“Is Trump authentic or is he another Manchurian candidate?”
Manchurian candidate infers capture and brainwashing by communists.
In its most generic application a Manchurian candidate is a stealth sleeper with allegiance to an enemy of the state in which he holds office. For many Obama and Clinton are such divisive characters. The tinfoil set believes that Trump is a plant by those Marxists.
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