It’s a 4% margin of error, so it’s a statistical tie, but I’d rather be up than down.
That said, the poll is among the old landline dominant variety with about 2/3 to 1/3 balance between landline and cellphone.
Those are the methods that have been proven wrong around the globe recently. Non-response rate, variability of respondent, and respondent pool have made the landline a negative rather than a plus.
So, it’s wise to view the MOE as closer to the truth.
What was the previous Fox IA poll? Trump was 21 in DMR, so he’s come up from that one.
Found it. Previous Fox poll Cruz was up 2, so he has slightly increased his lead in Fox-—but interestingly he’s about to see his overall lead on RCP fall because the big 10 point DMR poll will soon fall off. PPP should be out any day. I’ll be interested in that one.
Or it could be Cruz 31, Trump 19
That said, the poll is among the old landline dominant variety with about 2/3 to 1/3 balance between landline and cellphone.
Those are the methods that have been proven wrong around the globe recently.
They worked fine in the last presidential elections in this country. I still remember how a lot of Freepers were hopeful that the polls had under counted conservative/Republican votes because of land line/ cell phone ratios etc, and Obama still won pretty much according to the national polls.