You’ve posted an interesting article so don’t take this personally. It’s not written with you in mind.
This is however a good example of ‘a type” of mindset that is of notice to me.
There are people and groups out there who seem to flock to talk of doom in mas.
Be it the next big killer flu bug, the next fatal communicable disease, the next planet ending space object, the next big tsunami, the next big volcano, or something else, these folks seem to need to find something to fixate on and obsess over it.
There is also the thought that some people out the seem to think the public needs to obsess over this, for some reason.
In this story, there is admittedly a 90% chance nothing will happen, and I’d submit it’s probably more like 99.95% nothing will happen.
Human nature. It is the reason people slow down to gawk at car accidents.
For some, you can chalk it up to morbid curiosity, for others, it is an opportunity to count their blessings.
“You’ve posted an interesting article so don’t take this personally. It’s not written with you in mind.
This is however a good example of ‘a type’ of mindset that is of notice to me.
There are people and groups out there who seem to flock to talk of doom in mas.
Be it the next big killer flu bug, the next fatal communicable disease, the next planet ending space object, the next big tsunami, the next big volcano, or something else, these folks seem to need to find something to fixate on and obsess over it.”
Catastrophes are a fascinating topic to many, including myself. For the most part we’ve lived in placid times. Major upheaval would be a shock, and it’s probably worth thinking about what, if anything, it’s worth doing to prepare.
“There is also the thought that some people out the seem to think the public needs to obsess over this, for some reason.”
I don’t know about “obsess”, but I do think most people are terrible at risk assessment and should try to realistically reevaluate threats over time. I doubt too many folks rank “volcanic eruption” in the top ten things that might affect them or their families over the next few decades.
“In this story, there is admittedly a 90% chance nothing will happen, and I’d submit it’s probably more like 99.95% nothing will happen.”
One reason I find this story interesting is that during both of the most recent solar grand minimums (Maunder and Dalton), cooling was partly blamed on large volcanic eruptions. Such a minimum is beginning now, and this article claims we’re now in a “volcano season” of increased volcanic activity, which seems to be the case from what I’ve seen the last few years.
I have no idea what the causal link might be, but it seems there may be a link between extended periods of low solar activity, and volcanic activity. We’ll get a chance to see over the next few decades...
As to the probabilities, I think 10% over the next 90 years is probably not too far off for a VEI 7 eruption. It might even be low. We haven’t had one since Krakatoa in 1883.
A low VEI 7 might not have too an catastrophic effect on the US, but might result in lots of deaths in poor countries through famine. A high 7 or 8+ would very likely have a severe worldwide effect.
The only major disaster that might be more likely is nuclear war.