Posted on 01/05/2016 8:49:02 PM PST by VinL
If Donald Trump and Senator Ted Cruz join forces during the primary season, running as a potential ticket with either one taking the position at the top, the civil war that now plagues the Republican Party would almost certainly end as a rout of the GOP establishment and a sweeping victory for the anti-establishment rebellion that would choose the nominee.
The mathematics of the hostile takeover of the GOP by the anti-establishment wing of the party are so obvious that the idea of a Trump-Cruz ticket, or a Cruz-Trump ticket, must have occurred to both candidates. Messrs. Trump and Cruz, possibly joined by Dr. Ben Carson, have almost certainly discussed this possibility privately.
Behind the scenes throughout official Washington the prospect of the nomination debacle facing the GOP establishment is generating intense and panicked discussions across the upper strata of the national Republican leadership that can fairly be described as a behind-the-scenes frenzy. The magnitude of the imminent threat to the GOP establishment and the intensity of discussion among its leaders is dramatically understated in a political media that is thoroughly dominated by the hourly attacks by Mr. Trump and the reality television politics he embodies, and is thoroughly uninterested in reporting about the power mechanics of politics that will ultimately determine the nominees of the parties.
There are two mathematical dynamics that reveal the probable rout of the Republican establishment in the 2016 campaign. Consider this:
First, take a careful look at the summary of polling on Real Clear Politics about the battle for the Republican nomination. As I write these words on Tuesday morning the summary results of public opinion for the nomination contest are: Mr. Trump 35 percent and Mr. Cruz 19.5 percent. The figures total almost 55 percent of the GOP electorate. Add to this total the 8.8 percent that favors Ben Carson, who is also part of the anti-establishment rebellion, and the total percent of GOP voters who hunger to overthrow the Republican establishment and choose an anti-establishment nominee approaches 64 percent of the GOP electorate.
The Republican nominee will ultimately be determined by 50 percent plus 1 of the delegates to the Republican national convention. If I were a gambling man in one of Sheldon Adelson’s famous casinos I would place very high odds that the near 64 percent of GOP anti-establishment voters would find a way to reach 50 percent plus 1 of Republican National Convention delegates. (more)
Not the birth certificate per se, it’s what the attack betokens. Trump isn’t contrasting issues, he’s going after Cruz as he went after Carson and the others— on a personal level, e.g Cuban.
I expect Cruz will win, but had hope Trump would lose graciously- and thereby, Cruz would pick up his followers. Or alternately, if Trump won, Cruz supporters would flock to Trump.
Don’t see that happening if Trump continues down this path.
The key to picking up other people’s followers is to do what Cruz does. No personal attacks. That gets hard around here.
As for who will win, clearly Trump has a better chance than Cruz right now. I will vote on the issues and the issues tell me to vote Cruz. I have to say I am shocked how this forum has gone for Trump. To me it looks like blind devotion, emotionalism and even in some cases worship. I get the appeal. I get a kick out of some of what Trump says, too. I actually like his personality minus some of the major cheap shots he has taken. I am not with him on some key issues that matter to me.
The ugliness of the battle seems to be lost on the crowd whose candidate is highest in the polls. They think they need no one else. They’re terribly wrong. I guess they will have to relearn that the hard way. I am not sure if they really want their candidate in the WH or if they just want domination over Internet forums.
We are going to repeat 2012 where we should have won but were too stupid and divided to do it.
They don’t realize it-— but Trump lost tonight.
And you’re correct, he’s just alienating too many voters.
Trump would not support Kim Davis and he has voiced support for the homo issues. Your insult shows lack of a real defense. I am merely telling you two issues where Trump is not a conservative. Those issues matter most to me. Others prioritize differently. By all means, vote according to your own conscience. I will vote according to mine no matter how many ridiculous insults you sling at me. Bully electioneering might gain you some support for your candidate. Then again, maybe not.
I don’t think Trump lost tonight. His supporters are loyal. They are plentiful. They are not alone enough to win the general election. By the time that comes along, they will have alienated everyone but themselves. It will be an interesting defeat party.
Well, as I said when he went after Carson, all he did was throw Cruz into front runner status in Iowa- and that ended up the case. .
Now, he’ll pay the price for going after Cruz on this level-—
Trump didn’t attack Cruz on a whim, he did it because he was losing ground.
Well, I’m off for tonight—— you might be right, we’ll see—— but I’ll stick with my sense of it— I’m certain Trump lost tonight.
The WILL of the people, the people of AMERICA want Trump to be president.
Woe be those that deny it.
Worse case scenario is Trump getting elected but is taken out immediately, the country, a heavily armed country would go ballistic.
My point essentially is that I’m tired of politicians screwing up my country. I’m willing to go with this unknown commodity to that extent, feeling that it can certainly be no worse, and hoping that it just might be so much better.
The term is “win”, not “seize”.
That sounds like an honest position in accordance with your own conscience. I can respect that.
I hope your optimism is right and my pessimism is wrong.
Good night, friend. See you later.
Trump and Cruz are bound to lock horns sooner or later.
My wife does not think Trump will pick Cruz for VP. I don’t think Cruz would accept if Trump did. I would like to see a woman VP setting up for the Republicans to have the first Woman president. That would really be a blow to the Rats.
Trump/ Palin? I don’t know, I believe Cruz chances of winning are slim. Going to be interesting times ahead!
Which candidate is in the Cakles OH picture
disagree trump/cruz is the perfect ticket. and they get along just fine. what’s more they agree with each other on most issues.
What are you talking about? Trump bringing up Cruz’s legal ability to be Prez?
C’mon! They are doing this to get it out of the way so her heinous, if she isn’t in prison, can’t broadside them with it. Besides; the eligibility issue is only for Prez; not VP. Still doesn’t matter though. Cruz is good to go either way.
However, I am intrigued in this high risk experiment. I believe he is the only one that will build a wall. Congress passed a law when W was president, which W signed and the wall was supposed to be 300+ miles and they built only 30. No one cared and no one in Congress complained the executive branch was not carrying out the law.
If he can truly build a wall and get it done, then anything else is gravy. What about the VA hospitals? A national disgrace is but the best thing you can call them. Can he fix them...probably not, but he can close them down and give the vets vouchers to go to any hospital they want.
Judges? That has always been my main thing. Judges are incredibly important, but how well have the republicans done? The presidents have been better in picking lower court judges, but the track record on the Supreme Court is a disgrace. Republican presidents have chosen Harry Blackmun (Nixon), who as you know, wrote the Roe v. Wade decision; Powell, nominated by Nixon, who voted for Roe v. Wade. He was generally a conservative, but had a hankering to compromise. Reagan appointed Sandra Day O'Conner and Kennedy, who to this day flips and flops like a fish. HW Bush appointed the lightweight and odious Souter. And what about John Roberts, who was expected to be conservative, but will be mocked far into the future for rewriting Obamacare on the bench to pretend it was something that it wasn't so he could vote for it. He did it twice. No thank you. The republican presidents have had plenty of opportunities to nominated conservatives to the bench and they don't do it - consistently don't do it. The democrats don't get fooled. The last mistake a democrat president made was Kennedy, when he nominated Byron White. The republicans don't nominate known and well qualified conservatives because they don't want to do the hard work of beating back the media and the rabid democrats. So they go for the stealth candidates....the ones with a spotty case history that won't get them into trouble with the media, but behind the scenes, the president is assured that the nominee is conservative and surprise, surprise, the new SC justice surprises everyone as they increasingly vote liberal.
The democrats have no such trouble. They understand the importance and will have none of that spotty case history thing. They go for the gold. The dems nominate the general counsel for the NAACP and will say with a straight face, that the nominee is fair and balanced. Would that the republicans nominate the general counsel for the NRA? The effete republicans shudder at the thought of nominating someone branded NRA. Instead they advocate for the unknown, so the media will be nice to them. When the dems nominate an in your face selection for the SC, most repubs are eager to tell the press, that the president deserves his choice for the SC, after all, he won the election.
So based on the horrible track record of SC nominees, Trump can do no worse.
If Trump wins, and it is increasingly likely he will win, I want him to use the worst aspects of his bullying personality to rip Washington to shreds. I don't care of the consequences anymore. I'm done with what we have there now.
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