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Again, forest for the trees....

We don’t live in a simple winner take all democracy, we live in a democratic Republic, in a place that has the Electoral College.

I have no doubt Cruz will win red states by bigger margins, than Romney or McCain, but that doesn’t equate to one more single EC Vote. I think Trump or Rubio will also likely win every red state from 2012. Where Cruz and Rubio fall apart however, is I have ZERO confidence they will win many states that were blue in 2012.

The south is getting more conservative, as the blue dogs are abandoning the Democrats... and Democrats to their credit have built a coalition that can win the EC without the south... so they just don’t care.

If you win NC by 1% or 15%, you don’t get 1 more EC vote... So, to win you have to win by winning more states, not by larger national margins.

If Candidate A wins 35 states by a 1% margin on average, and candidate B wins 20 states by a 5% margin, who did better?

So I ask you, and everyone else, what states do you think Cruz or Rubio take that Romney didn’t? What is your path to 64 more votes? Even if you are given the two big guns of OH and FL, you are still 17 votes shy... so where do you find them? With Rubio or Cruz, there are only a very limited number of options/paths.... VA? Wouldn’t hold my breath on that one.. but maybe... but you still need 1 more state? IA? CO? NM? And what if no VA? VA has become a bastion of liberalism thanks to DC Sprawl... SO if you don’t get VA as well, who do you get? You have to take all 3 of the others to make it happen...

That’s way way way too skinny of a path. What state, other than those listed, do you honestly think a Rubio or a Cruz would have any chance of flipping?

Now, take Trump, What red state do you see Trump losing that Romney won? Only one I see as a possible loss would be Arizona at worst, and I am not fully convinced Rubio or Cruz would hold that one either... but lets just give up AZ to make the exercise more interesting... So Trump needs 75 not 64 like a Cruz or Rubio... But what states come into play?

I assume FL and OH still go Red, the same possible battleground of VA, IA, CO, NM are in play, but I also see states like PA, NY, NJ, WI, MI and others (to a lesser extent) going into play (MA possibly). The path to victory becomes far broader. Nearly any of those states replace AZ and some of them make victory almost certain.

The election is still 11 months away so we will see, but honestly, I see Trump as the one who opens up the map and gives a large victory... I see Cruz frankly as unelectable, I don’t see a path where he is going to flip 64 total EC votes. I do think he will win red states by larger margins, but I don’t see him flipping 64. Rubio probably has a slightly better chance of getting 64, but I don’t see a wide map for him either..... This analysis isn’t based on how much I personally like or don’t like any candidate. Rubio’s amnesty stand makes him a non starter for me, and I do think it will weaken his overall turnout vs others, particulary in red states, but I don’t think it will cost him any of the 2012 red states either.

Trump, as I see it is the only one who opens up the map, and shakes up the entire paradigm and that, is why the GOPe and DNC are petrified of the guy IMHO. If Trump wins, he won’t just win, he’ll win in a big way... no it won’t be 1984, but it will be big, he will take away many states that dems think, and under conventional opponent would be, safe.

Time will tell if I am right, but that’s how I see it.