Will ‘Electability’ Sink Trump?

Roll Call ^ | Jan. 3, 2016 | Stuart Rothenberg

[justlittleoleme]

Most national polls show Republican frontrunner Donald Trump trailing likely Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and faring worse than other GOP hopefuls against her.

That raises an obvious question: Could doubts about Trump's strength in a general election derail his bid for the Republican nomination, or would GOP caucus attendees and primary voters simply ignore poll numbers that suggest Trump would be a risky bet in November?

SNIP

But Quinnipiac University's Dec. 16-20 survey showed Trump's image with all registered voters at 33 percent favorable/59 percent unfavorable - dismal numbers, and the highest unfavorable rating of any GOP hopeful.

Trump trailed Clinton by 11 points, 49 percent to 38 percent, in the mid-December Fox News ballot test, while Cruz and Clinton were tied at 45 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio held a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Clinton. The Quinnipiac poll found Trump trailing Clinton 47 percent to 40 percent, while Cruz and Clinton were tied at 44 percent and Rubio trailed Clinton by a single point, 44 percent to 43 percent.

But not every survey showed Trump trailing Clinton so dramatically in hypothetical match ups. For example, a Dec. 17-21 CNN/ORC survey showed the two candidates separated by only two points (Clinton 49 percent, Trump 47 percent). Of course, Cruz held a 2-point lead over Clinton and Rubio a 3-point lead in that survey, seemingly confirming that Trump is a weaker nominee against Clinton than at least two other Republican hopefuls.

But even if additional surveys between now and the Iowa caucuses show Trump's relative weakness in the general election, it is not yet clear that GOP voters - and Trump voters - will care. Opinion about the importance of "electability" as an issue for voters has been divided over the years.

[onyx]

OH THANK YOU SO MUCH! Now I have “Eye of the Tiger” playing in my head and that’s A-OK!

I completely agree with everything you wrote and I’m still laughing about what you wrote about Kasich! So true! Mr. Trump’s tweet’s saved idiot Kasich money and Kasich ought to THANK Donald Trump!

LOL

[SmokingJoe]

They're not the same polls

Chuckle!
They are the same polls, from exactly the same media companies who pump out all these polls giving TRUMP big leads in the GOP primaries.
Only difference is, the crazy Trumpbots gleefully and repeatedly post the mainstream media polls which show Trump with massive leads in GOP primaries and swear those polls are the Gospel, but then turn round and trash polls from exactly the same lamestream media, showing Trump getting clobbered by Hilary Clinton.
I mean you can't make this stuff up. You Trumpbots are so predictable. You are like children.

[dennisw]

“... I got to exchange a few words with him.”

Is all good!!!!

[SmokingJoe]

The GOPe, Democrats and leftists all want Trump stopped. That covers the biases of almost all pollsters

Yeah....They are so biased that Al Reuters is giving Trump massive poll numbers of over 40% in the GOP primaries. And the Trumpbots gleefully and repeatedly post the these Reuters rolling polls everyday in the sidebar at Freerepublic. /sarc

[MaxFlint]

Because they desperately don’t want Trump facing off on Hillary. It will be a very ugly campaign and she won’t have the stamina to go the length against the withering attacks of Trump.

For anyone asking "How can Trump beat Hillary in PA (NY, MA, NH)" the answer is "By totally destroying her." I can easily envision a debate where Trump drives Hillary into a shrieking harpy meltdown live, the whole world watching the Wicked Witch of the West Wing collapse into a puddle of her own evil.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

Trump cracks the map wide open

Except polls have consistently shown Cruz and Rubio doing better in one-on-one match-ups against Hillary.

[SmokingJoe]

But they can publish whatever they want about the general election eleven months from now because come election day no one will remember, and if anyone does they can claim the situation changed, which it wil

Is that why they've had Trump in the lead for the GOP primaries for 6 months and long before the primaries are actually held?

[MaxFlint]

They are the same polls, from exactly the same media companies who pump out all these polls giving TRUMP big leads in the GOP primaries.

Same polling companies, different polls. They can cook the numbers for the general election because no one can call them on it. Cruz vs. Hillary just isn't going to happen. Iowa and New Hampshire happen next month. They have to compete with other pollsters for accuracy on those contests, which will impact their income for the rest of the election year.

[MaxFlint]

Is that why they've had Trump in the lead for the GOP primaries for 6 months and long before the primaries are actually held?

Like Jeb they didn't take him seriously. They thought he was just a good story, something they could use to promote their early polling, and that he would implode like Herman Cain before 2015 ended.

Big mistake.

[SmokingJoe]

You missed the point. You claimed that the MSM publish fake polls when it’s ways to go before the actual elections so Trump’s abysmal poll numbers against Hilary are false. So explain why the MSM have had Trump in the lead for the GOP primaries for 6 months already, long before the actual primaries. That puts the lie to your claim.

[Jim Noble]

Thanks for a cogent, if somewhat rose-colored, reply.

Why do you believe Cruz can win Florida, Michigan, and Ohio?

[Fantasywriter]

To enlarge briefly on my previous post. I recently read a list of serious symptoms Hillary is suffering from. I didn’t memorize the list, but one stuck in my mind: blinding, debilitating headaches.

Why is she having these? Is this the reason she is on such a low key schedule, and yet still cannot make it to her rallies until two hours after they were scheduled to start? How would blinding, debilitating headaches impact her effectiveness as POTUS?

Trump hasn’t unloaded on this topic yet. He fired a warning shot when he released his health report. But he’s keeping his powder dry for the most part. If Hillary’s health issues don’t take her out, she may end up wishing they had. [I wish her no I’ll, btw. I just think that assuming she’ll be the nominee is premature.]

[Fantasywriter]

I’ll = ill

Auto correct again.

[MaxFlint]

So explain why the MSM have had Trump in the lead for the GOP primaries for 6 months already

Just explained that. Maybe you missed it. "Like Jeb they didn't take him seriously."

They'd all been warned. And the walls came down. They stood there laughing. They're not laughing anymore. The walls came down.

[SmokingJoe]

Just explained that. Maybe you missed it. “Like Jeb they didn't take him seriously.”

No you didn't. The fact that they've had Trump in the lead for 6 months already totally destroys your MSM poll conspiracy claim on why Trump is getting clobbered by Hilary in general election matchups.

[SmokingJoe]

Again, Trump’s very long lead in MSM GOP primary polls says you are wrong.

[MaxFlint]

Again, Trump’s very long lead in MSM GOP primary polls says you are wrong.

Static analysis fail. When the situation changes the players' tactics change in response. June 2015, Trump is seen as a joke who will hurt the GOP brand just by associating himself with it. Liberals play into his self promotion on the assumption that he will either implode or be easy to beat in the general. Trump, a master tactician, uses this to increase his standing and garner millions of dollars worth of free air time from his enemies. It's the campaign equivalent of getting Mexico to pay for the wall. Genius.

This is advanced politics, son. Don't make me bust the funky lyrics.

[patriotspride]

There is no such thing as “electability” because the only way to determine if someone is “electable” is to put them into the nomination. Anything else is just surmising.

---

agree. Also the MSM is counting on “ your heard it on TV” so it must be true..

[Dr. Sivana]

Why do you believe Cruz can win Florida, Michigan, and Ohio?

Florida: It really doesn't hurt that his last name is Cruz, and Florida has more Cubans than any other state. I also believe the retired NY Jewish contingent won't trust HRC on Israel, and will break better than usual, or at least skip that race. Blacks won't be motivated to vote for HRC. Panhandle will come out very strong for Cruz.

Michigan: Has been trending Republican the last tfew years, and is actually doing better since embracing Republican reforms. It doesn't hurt that Detroit's population is DOWN. Also, Cruz himself sees something in Michigan. It is the only non-early northern state that he's spent a lot of time and effort in. Cruz may not exactly draw Reagan Democrats at this point the way Reagan himself did (with Macomb County, MI beign a literal casebook study), but HRC is the anti-Reagan Democrat. She talks about the middle class a lot. Who buys it?

Ohio: Why, John Kasich will deliver Ohio for any Republican nominee! Just kidding. Same logic as applied in Michigan. Basically, unlike places like Maryland and Massachusetts, I believe a lot of Ohioans who lean Dem are happy to go the other way in a presidential race with some motivation. I'd be looking at 2004-type numbers, when George the Younger beat out Kerry in Ohio.

Bonus Wildcard:

Wisconsin now has strict photo ID. That will tamp down the shenanigans in Milwaukee, Madison and La Crosse.

When it comes down to it, I really think HRC is a REALLY weak candidate. She is the old war horse hat tends to lose onthe Dem side (Kerry, Humphrey, Mondale, etc.). Dems tdo better with new and shiny (Obama, Clinton, Carter, JFK were all new to the national scene when nominated).

[Amntn]

“Those crowds” are bused in by labor unions.
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You have truly lost it!

Bump to post 26 LOL.