Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Will ‘Electability’ Sink Trump?
Roll Call ^ | Jan. 3, 2016 | Stuart Rothenberg

Posted on 01/03/2016 8:53:05 PM PST by justlittleoleme

Most national polls show Republican frontrunner Donald Trump trailing likely Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and faring worse than other GOP hopefuls against her.

That raises an obvious question: Could doubts about Trump's strength in a general election derail his bid for the Republican nomination, or would GOP caucus attendees and primary voters simply ignore poll numbers that suggest Trump would be a risky bet in November?

SNIP

But Quinnipiac University's Dec. 16-20 survey showed Trump's image with all registered voters at 33 percent favorable/59 percent unfavorable - dismal numbers, and the highest unfavorable rating of any GOP hopeful.

Trump trailed Clinton by 11 points, 49 percent to 38 percent, in the mid-December Fox News ballot test, while Cruz and Clinton were tied at 45 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio held a 45 percent to 43 percent lead over Clinton. The Quinnipiac poll found Trump trailing Clinton 47 percent to 40 percent, while Cruz and Clinton were tied at 44 percent and Rubio trailed Clinton by a single point, 44 percent to 43 percent.

But not every survey showed Trump trailing Clinton so dramatically in hypothetical match ups. For example, a Dec. 17-21 CNN/ORC survey showed the two candidates separated by only two points (Clinton 49 percent, Trump 47 percent). Of course, Cruz held a 2-point lead over Clinton and Rubio a 3-point lead in that survey, seemingly confirming that Trump is a weaker nominee against Clinton than at least two other Republican hopefuls.

But even if additional surveys between now and the Iowa caucuses show Trump's relative weakness in the general election, it is not yet clear that GOP voters - and Trump voters - will care. Opinion about the importance of "electability" as an issue for voters has been divided over the years.

(Excerpt) Read more at 3.blogs.rollcall.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: cruzisright; election; elections; ezsleazylawyerted; immigration; nocharismated; stalewhitebreadted; trump; trumpaintright; trumpwasright; trusted
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 141-160161-180181-200 ... 261-279 next last
To: justlittleoleme

Brawndo!


161 posted on 01/04/2016 5:05:16 AM PST by don-o (I am Kenneth Carlisle - Waco 5/17/15)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 159 | View Replies]

To: Jim Noble
Please tell me the names of states adding up to 63 electoral votes that Romney lost that you feel confident Cruz will win if he is the nominee.

Florida 29
Michigan 16
Ohio 18
Nevada 6
Iowa 6
Maine (1)

=====

No so assured, but in play:

New Mexico 5
Colorado 9
Wisconsin 10
New Hampshire 4

I am a Cruz supporter who accepts your premise that Trump puts many more states in play, including the ones you listed. I also believe Cruz would be the best presdient, knows how to run a tough, disciplined campaign. If he cannot beat HRC, then we are going down anyway, Trump or no Trump.
162 posted on 01/04/2016 5:05:44 AM PST by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 153 | View Replies]

To: MayflowerMadam; The Ghost of FReepers Past

I have no idea how credible this site is, but read this over the weekend.

http://fellowshipoftheminds.com/2012/11/15/why-the-gop-will-not-do-anything-about-vote-fraud/

I’d read something to this effect before.


163 posted on 01/04/2016 5:06:24 AM PST by KGeorge (I will miss you forever, Miss Mu. 7/1/2006- 11/16/2015)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 147 | View Replies]

To: Dr. Sivana

I agree.

Hillary is the prohibitive favorite so if we’re going to lose anyway, we might as well go down fighting.

Rest assured, neither Trump nor Cruz, unlike past GOP candidates, are going to gently into that good night.

We might as well give it the best shot we have and hope for the best while preparing for the worst.


164 posted on 01/04/2016 5:09:12 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 162 | View Replies]

To: KGeorge

The GOP establishment will not lift a finger to help Trump/Cruz and that’s money in the bank.

It wouldn’t lift a finger to help Golden Boy Romney in the face of Obama’s massive vote-rigging machine.

Now it wants Hillary come hell or high water so don’t be upset if its jubilant a GOP insurgent gets routed come November.

They can’t/won’t stand Goldwater II.


165 posted on 01/04/2016 5:15:33 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 163 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

smh I know. I swear they don’t care who gets elected (or maybe they LIKE having the lefty) so they can pretend to be blameless. Freekin jerks!


166 posted on 01/04/2016 5:22:08 AM PST by KGeorge (I will miss you forever, Miss Mu. 7/1/2006- 11/16/2015)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 165 | View Replies]

To: KC_for_Freedom

Lets see how things work out in February! Lots of things can and will happen in the next three months. Trump may well have something up his sleeve—so too Cruz or even Sanders. What might happen? A large Terrorist Attack on US Soil? A big battle in Syria? A massive storm hits the USA? Russia invades Turkey or some other land? Iran invades Saudi Arabia? Assassinations? Drone Strikes? Scandals show Hillery the lier she is—or even a scandal involving Obama? Many things will happen.


167 posted on 01/04/2016 5:22:13 AM PST by Forward the Light Brigade (Into the Jaws of H*ll Onward! Ride to the sound of the guns!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: KGeorge

Well, that is truly terrifying if it’s true. Why do we even bother to hold elections?

I guess the answer is for Trump to run as an Independent if that could be a work-around for this problem.

This article should have its own thread. It would get more attention and maybe with so many FReeper heads working on it together it can be verified or debunked.


168 posted on 01/04/2016 5:25:04 AM PST by MayflowerMadam (TDS: Hating Trump more than loving America.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 163 | View Replies]

To: Jim Noble

“Trump, if he is the nominee, will win NY, MA, NJ, CT, and possibly PA”

I would love to know what this belief is based on. If Trump can’t win PA how is it possible to win more liberal states such as NY, MA and NJ? If you are basing this on the blaze article, the author states that he once lived in NY(now in Los Vegas) and that IF Trump spends the time, money and has celebrity supporters he can win NY, which to me is just wishful thinking.


169 posted on 01/04/2016 5:32:57 AM PST by tlozo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 153 | View Replies]

To: MayflowerMadam

It really frustrates me that the numbers came out after 2012- & the voter intimidation stuff happened in 2008 (one of the DOJ guys resigned & wrote a book about it), yet Congress doesn’t lift a finger. Not so much as a pretense.

They need to be thrown out on their dirty ears, right down to the janitors & the cafeteria ladies. They can stay- but nobody else.


170 posted on 01/04/2016 5:42:15 AM PST by KGeorge (I will miss you forever, Miss Mu. 7/1/2006- 11/16/2015)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 168 | View Replies]

To: justlittleoleme
Trump is the most genuinely electable person in the race. By genuine, I men he isn't like Hillary who will get votes for being a demoncrat. Romney’s 47% he mentioned.

That said, I do not think Hillary will get all of that 47%. She is unlikable.

Trump is like a steaming locomotive.

This “electable” thing is a joke because people know Trump is who IS the most electable.

Go Trump!!!!!

171 posted on 01/04/2016 5:43:36 AM PST by dforest
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jim Robinson

The average of a number of different polls show Trump losing against Hillary by about 5 points:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

Thankfully, the same polls show the loser Jeb Bush also losing against Hillary:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_bush_vs_clinton-3827.html

These same polls show Ted Cruz either tying or beating Hillary in the general election:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_cruz_vs_clinton-4034.html

Polls don’t mean everything. But they mean something. They mean that the most consistently and boldly conservative candidate *can* win against Hillary. We don’t have to settle for the bombastic Trump, thinking that his popularity beats Cruz’s popularity.


172 posted on 01/04/2016 5:43:55 AM PST by Theo (Trump = French Revolution. Cruz = American Revolution. Choose wisely.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Theo

Cruz will not win against Hillary. Live with it.


173 posted on 01/04/2016 5:45:14 AM PST by dforest
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 172 | View Replies]

To: SmokingJoe
The same polls by which you Trumpbots swear, say the exact opposite of what you are claiming. Ted Cruz does consistently better against Hilary Clinton in general election matchups than Trump does.

They're not the same polls.

The GOPe, Democrats and leftists all want Trump stopped. That covers the biases of almost all pollsters. At the same time all pollsters must maintain their reputation for accuracy. If they published a poll about Iowa today and had Jeb at 40% and he got 2% at the Iowa caucus they'd never live it down. But they can publish whatever they want about the general election eleven months from now because come election day no one will remember, and if anyone does they can claim the situation changed, which it will.

That's why polls about the next few contests usually have some grounding in reality and hypothetical matchups in November (most of which will never be tested in an actual election) can be made up out of whole cloth.

174 posted on 01/04/2016 5:45:15 AM PST by MaxFlint
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 72 | View Replies]

To: MayflowerMadam
This article should have its own thread

I'm sure you can find threads about it - it comes up every 4 years.

That is the reason I was sorry to see Trump sign that loyalty agreement with the GOP.

175 posted on 01/04/2016 5:49:40 AM PST by Abby4116
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 168 | View Replies]

To: goldstategop

Never also underestimate that many Americans are angry as well.


176 posted on 01/04/2016 5:50:06 AM PST by Biggirl ("One Lord, one faith, one baptism" - Ephesians 4:5)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 137 | View Replies]

To: tlozo
I would love to know what this belief is based on. If Trump can’t win PA how is it possible to win more liberal states such as NY, MA and NJ?

Forget "liberal" and "conservative", that's not what this election is about. This election is transnationalists vs. patriots, or globalists vs. Americans.

I'm NY born and bred, and lived among Reagan Democrats in MA for 22 years. I didn't predict PA for Trump because I don't know PA as well as I do the rest (although the mix looks good, I don't know the people).

People whose political glasses have one red lens and one blue lens absolutely do not understand what is happening here, and the ruling class has no interest in them finding out.

Fox News and CNNCBSNBCABCPBS have a common interest in keeping patriots divided into opposing teams playing a fixed game, while the ruling class deconstructs and sells off America,

Go Trump!

177 posted on 01/04/2016 5:50:34 AM PST by Jim Noble (Diseases desperate grown Are by desperate appliance relieved Or not at al)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 169 | View Replies]

To: editor-surveyor; WXRGina; logitech
Wake up.
“Those crowds” are bused in by labor unions.



When we drove-up to the Coliseum in Biloxi Mississippi, I thought it must be a Rolling Stones' Concert! Long lines, jammed packed. It took almost 5 hours to get all those people inside from those lines and ALL waited in line, (save for ingenious us - Gina to be exact) and NOT a bus in sight.

RECORD BREAKING CROWD SIZE for that YUGE facility ... filled to capacity!

YOU wake up.

Mr. Donald J. TRUMP is a genuine American Patriot and a gentleman .

I know this for a fact ... I got to exchange a few words with him.

178 posted on 01/04/2016 5:53:17 AM PST by onyx
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 26 | View Replies]

To: Abby4116
That is the reason I was sorry to see Trump sign that loyalty agreement with the GOP.

Really. It seems that they were setting him up for this very reason. A trick so his hands will be tied in spite of gross cheating. I expect that anything can be un-done; maybe Trump is the guy to take on the project.

179 posted on 01/04/2016 6:01:17 AM PST by MayflowerMadam (TDS: Hating Trump more than loving America.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 175 | View Replies]

To: dforest

The polls, which Trump seems to love, indicate otherwise.

The polls indicate that Cruz will do better against Hillary than Trump, in large part because of Trump’s high unfavorability rating among the general population.

Just reporting the facts, dforest. The factual polling results, from a variety of polls.


180 posted on 01/04/2016 6:09:34 AM PST by Theo (Trump = French Revolution. Cruz = American Revolution. Choose wisely.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 173 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 141-160161-180181-200 ... 261-279 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson