Posted on 12/25/2015 5:11:00 PM PST by Rockitz
It wasn’t long ago that conservative proponents of comprehensive immigration reform were insisting that the idea is popular among Republican voters. In 2014, the Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin told us, “nope, immigration reform [isn’t] toxic†and that “the anti-immigration forces are loud but in the distinct minority†within the Republican party.
To be fair, Rubin and others of the same view backed up their claim with poll data, but they didn’t persuade me. I remembered how, during the 2012 primary season, Republican presidential candidates, whose polling operations have an enormous interest in being right, treated immigration reform as “toxic†indeed. I remembered the beating Rick Perry took just for defending his state’s use of in-state tuition rates for illegal immigrants ( “you have no heart†and all that).
Flash forward to the current campaign season, and Rubin’s claim seems laughable. Donald Trump moved to the head of the pack on the strength of attacking the character of illegal immigrants from Mexico and proposing that all illegals be rounded up and deported. Ted Cruz has left Marco Rubio in the dust by pounding the Florida Senator for sponsoring comprehensive immigration legislation.
Rubio responds not by defending his legislation — he admits it was a mistake — but by saying, in effect, that Cruz was just as bad on the issue, having supported a path to legalization for illegal immigrants. Meanwhile Jeb Bush, a steadfast believer in amnesty, has gone from putative frontrunner to low single digits.
Clearly, the “anti immigration forces†are not “in the distinct minority†within the GOP.
But Rubin didn’t make up the poll numbers she cited. And even allowing for the possibility of manipulation by the pollsters (e.g., through the wording of questions) and/or a shift in opinion since the Obama amnesty, a goodly share of the Republican electorate probably support immigration reform that confers legal status on the bulk of those who are currently here illegally.
The Republican split almost surely isn’t 54-37 in favor, as a poll cited by Rubin found. But it might be 37-54.
If so, then Rubio’s campaign is hardly doomed. In a three-way race in which his two rivals are taking a hard line on immigration, Rubio’s candidacy should be viable given (a) his overall attractiveness as a candidate, (b) his solid conservatism on other issues, (c) the argument that he’s the most electable Republican standing, and (d) the resources of the establishment, assuming it coalesces behind him.
Shrink the field to two candidates — Trump and Rubio or Cruz and Rubio — and Rubio is likely to be shlonged. But as long as Trump and Cruz both remain viable, so (in theory) can Rubio.
I say “in theory†because Rubio probably needs some early results that confirm he’s a leading contender. He’s struggling in Iowa. In New Hampshire, he’s barely ahead in the race to be the leading candidate not named Trump. And if Rubio fails to win, or at least run a strong second, in his home state primary — a distinct possibility if Jeb Bush remains in the race — his campaign may go on life support.
Marco Rubio went to bat big time for the GOP establishment when he signed onto the Gang of Eight amnesty legislation. It was a huge mistake. If the establishment doesn’t make a serious, concerted effort to boost Rubio’s campaign, and soon, the experience will be all the more bitter.
I should add that I’m not taking no position here on the comparative merits of Rubio and Cruz (though on immigration, I’m with Cruz). Like Scott, I’ll leave that one for another day. All I’m offering here is “horse race†analysis.
paul ryan just put a portion of the gag of 8 bill into the omnibust the country bill.
With any luck, yes. He’s nothing but a bloody used car salesman.
Yes.
I sure as hell hope it doomed him. At the least, it revealed him to be an ambitious, duplicitous, unprincipled LIAR who BETRAYED those who sent him to Washington at the first opportunity.
And I hope his political DOOM entails a life of obscurity. I want to see no more of him on the national stage.
Hell Yes!
Freegards
LEX
The short answer is yes, Rubio is unacceptable.
In another time “comprehensive” immigration reform might have been a good sell but by the time Rubio came along people had figured out it was rope-a-dope. Illegals get “comprehensively” legalized but the border never gets closed. Really, it was GW that taught us that.
National sovereignty is “the” issue this season. The proof in this is not merely that Trump is doing so well with it, but that everyone else has crashed and burned because of it. Jeb can’t get traction because people remember his attacks on Arizona’s governor Brewer. Huck never got any traction, despite the fact that people like him, because those same people remember he called us “unchristian” for wanting to control the border just a couple of years ago. Rand can’t get traction because people know he is soft on the border. As are most of the people running despite their election-season rhetoric.
Trump seized that issue, and because of it nothing hurts him, he gets a blank check. Cruz seized the issue, but almost shot himself in the foot with TPA and H1b, but he seems to have done a course correction and is now doing nicely. The others never overcame the damage they did to themselves, and that includes especially Rubio. The establishment really want him for the same reason the rest of us don’t, they know and we know he will be “reasonable” on the border.
It does for me and my family!
“...Shrink the field to two candidates — Trump and Rubio or Cruz and Rubio — and Rubio is likely to be shlonged. But as long as Trump and Cruz both remain viable, so (in theory) can Rubio....
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The author is continuing the longstanding attempts of the “establishment” to stir up a war between Cruz & Trump. They’ve been unsuccessful at that so far with the result that Trump & Cruz will be getting the great bulk of the delegates to the national convention. And the establishment knows that and they KNOW that they may well be “flushed” from their positions of power in the Party should Trump and Cruz dominate-—as it increasingly appears to be the destiny of the Republican Party in 2016.
there’s a republican amnesty vote? who are these idiots and why aren’t they voting in the dem primary/
Who?
Somewhat but he’s really dooming himself.
His RINOcity dooms him.
To be like a liberal is evil...pure evil.
Let him formally declare his economic and social stupidity and move to the party of non thinkers.
He has a myriad of negative factors. Each a deal breaker on their own.
Not Constitutionally qualified as President.
He knows it and the Dems know it.
Not to worry - Rubio is on the DOWNSWING now. He was pushing 15% to 20% (nationally) a few weeks ago, now he’s below 10%. What killed him was his Gang of Eight, and voters only needed to be reminded of it - which Trump and Cruz did. Obviously the media is in no hurry to report it, but look at Reuters.
Rubio’s flailing attempt to tarnish Cruz on Gang of Eight BACKFIRED as it kept the issue in the news MUCH LONGER than Rubio would have preferred.
So, for Rubio - IT IS OVER. Trump/Cruz/Carson (combined) now have close to 65% Republican support, and those supporters are simply NOT going to vote for ANYONE that The Establishment is trying to shove at us.
While it is not (yet) certain that Trump will be the nominee, it is PERFECTLY CLEAR that the nominee will not be Rubio (or Bush, for that matter).
Yes.
He starts out quoting Jebbifer Rubin, known propagandist for The Cheap Labor Express.
Rubio is their last hope of keeping us from electing someone that would stop them.
He’s dead, Jim.
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