What's posted here is from the IBD print addition which had the graphic below but the webite began w/ it a bit different plus they used the graphic on the right. Bottom line is that (imho) things are better and they still got further to go.
Posted on 12/24/2015 4:28:04 AM PST by expat_panama
New-Home Sales Rise, Miss Strong wage gains give consumers the means to step up their spending
The year's big economic trends continued Wednesday in one of 2015's last big batches of data releases: Consumer spending is solid, housing activity is rising but not accelerating, and manufacturing is treading water.
The Commerce Department says that personal spending rose 0.3% in November, giving a solid start to the holiday shopping season. It followed a surprising flat reading in October. Solid purchases of big-ticket items such as cars and appliances led the way.
Shoppers had the means to step up. Personal income grew 0.3% after October's 0.4% rise. Wages and salaries jumped 0.5% after October's 0.6% pop, amid solid hiring and improved pay packets. Savings rates are at 3-year highs. "That's quite encouraging when you're heading into 2016," said Gregory Daco, head of U.S. economics for forecaster Oxford Economics.
Lower gasoline prices and higher home equity also are supporting spending, which accounts for about 70% of economic activity.
The core personal consumption expenditures deflator, the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, rose 0.1%. Year over year, the core PCE climbed 1.3%, unchanged from October and well below the Fed's 2% target. It contrasts with the core consumer price index, which hit a 2% yearly gain last month.
Confidence Rises
Consumers also are growing more optimistic. The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose to 92.6 in its final December reading, up from a mid-month estimate of 91.8 and November's 91.3. It's the strongest pace since July.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, released this month, showed a modest gain in December, with the Personal Financial Outlook Index hitting a 3-year high.
Housing continues to be a positive, though the sector's gains are far from blockbuster.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.investors.com ...
What's posted here is from the IBD print addition which had the graphic below but the webite began w/ it a bit different plus they used the graphic on the right. Bottom line is that (imho) things are better and they still got further to go.
Ok, I got a conference call from my investment firm/financial managers. I have no reason not to trust these guys. But their analysis was surprisingly upbeat and their charts showed personal and family debt down, employment trending up. But we keep seeing stories that most Americans have no savings and that the # who have stopped looking for work is 94 m. Don’t know what to believe.
I think about 10% are doing very well - well enough to skew the statistics to an overall positive. Your investment managers certainly belong to this group, so why wouldn’t they be upbeat?
That!s a possibility-—but their data wasn’t fabricated (family debt levels falling, for ex.)
A very merry Christmas Eve to all --markets close 3 hours early today! An early present to open now is IBD has stock trends listed (from here) back up as "confirmed uptrend". As they put it:
IBD readers would not be surprised to see the phrase "Santa Claus rally" used to describe strong gains this time of year. Yet the reindeer pulling the market up Wednesday were perhaps not the ones you would have hoped for or expected.
For the moment futures traders are shipping us more gains in stocks and are leaving metals alone (gold & silver continue to trade as they've been for a few weeks now.
Huh, just noticed these at the bottom of our stocking:
8:30 AM Continuing Claims
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Continuing Claims
10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories
It's a crock, the fact is that average American private real wealth is at an all time high --let me know if you'd like me to post the fed's numbers on that. The news people print this "Americans-are-broke" story because everyone loves to hear it. Right wingers want to 'prove' we're worse off, left-wingers want any excuse for increasing gov't rescue operations, and foreigners love to believe that stupid Americans are finally getting what they think we deserve.
None of it's true.
Right, those fat cat investment bankers that the president promised he wasn't doing any favors for --they continue to get rich while most people starve and everything's just so, well, unequal!!.
That line's bogus too but debunking it is harder to prove. Census income distribution methods are tainted and on top of that labor trends have been going off the grid into cash only.
A considerable percentage of the reasons for a person’s perspective (ie we’re doing well, we’re doing poorly, ‘saving’, not saving, contented or not) is whether or not they have ever lived week-to-week-to-week - one step above hand-to-mouth.
Few in the investor class of the western world have ever been truly poor. Thus, for these resourceful (but also fortunate) people, their proverbial glass is most always half-full.
Yeah, but I’m not talking about their “perceptions” based on how they live. I’m talking about the data they presented in a half-hour teleconference, all of it pretty optimistic, especially the “debt/income” levels.
What about the declining family debt levels?
Yes, please, I’d love to see the private real wealth numbers. I’ve seen probably three or four stories in the last couple of months that say American either have no savings, have less than 1/3 what they need to retire, etc.
| Average American Wealth (2015$) | |||
| Year | Assets | Debts | Net Worth |
| 2007 | $313,471 | $53,008 | $260,462 |
| 2008 | $287,763 | $53,700 | $234,063 |
| 2009 | $252,602 | $51,701 | $200,901 |
| 2010 | $260,116 | $49,432 | $210,684 |
| 2011 | $265,871 | $47,391 | $218,480 |
| 2012 | $263,762 | $45,166 | $218,596 |
| 2013 | $280,534 | $44,183 | $236,351 |
| 2014 | $301,061 | $43,871 | $257,189 |
| 2015 | $315,636 | $44,749 | $270,887 |
Any way we look at it the average American is richer and debts are down. Of course this is where the left makes up some story about how the average is 'wrong' because it's a few mean fat cats that stole everyone's money and we need the Hillary/Sanders ticket to take it all back.
Thank you.
My pleasure. Really, I’d been looking for an excuse to get around to do that and you provided it ;)
BTW if that was all the assets I had I’d shoot myself.
Don’t forget that’s percapita, so if u got say four people in your family then y’all are millionaires!
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