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Trump May Be More Popular Than You Think
Newser ^ | 12/22/15 | Rob Quinn

Posted on 12/22/2015 11:57:14 AM PST by Impala64ssa

ome Donald Trump supporters are too ashamed to admit it, according to a new study that suggests that his poll numbers may be even higher than GOP strategists think. Researchers at the Morning Consult polling firm say that when they polled almost 2,500 Republican and Republican-leaning voters using a variety of methods last week, they found Trump's support was around 6% higher among those polled online, compared to those who spoke to a live human. His support was 4% higher among those who received automated calls. In what the Los Angeles Times calls the "most telling part of the experiment," the poll numbers didn't change much among blue-collar Republicans, but Trump's support was 9 points higher among college-educated GOP voters who replied online compared to those polled over the phone.

"It's our sense that a lot of polls are underreporting Trump's overall support," a Morning Consult spokesman tells the Times. The changing poll numbers are the result of what is known as "social desirability bias," which causes people to lie to pollsters out of shame, reports Vox, which notes that the same phenomenon causes activities like illegal drug use or masturbating to be underreported in polls.

Vox notes that no other candidate saw the same degree of difference across polling methods. Ben Carson and Ted Cruz both had about 2% more support among those who spoke to an interviewer, while Jeb Bush's numbers didn't change.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bradleyeffect; elections; immigration; polling; trump; trumpwasright
HMMM< there seems to be a Spiral of Silence occuring? The Bradley effect? Or, as our friends across the pond would call it the Shy Tory Factor?. I remember when Rudy Guliani ran against Dinkins, in the first mayoral race in 1989 the polls called it for Dinkins by a landslide. It turned out to be one of the closest races in NYC history. They also called it for the Dinkster in 1993, and we all know Rudy handily defeated him. And the libs in the LSM had the chutzpah to bitch and moan how they were lied to. Pot, kettle...
1 posted on 12/22/2015 11:57:14 AM PST by Impala64ssa
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To: Impala64ssa

Prepare to witness the Trump Tsunami

it’s coming ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~


2 posted on 12/22/2015 11:58:59 AM PST by LeoWindhorse
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To: LeoWindhorse

“Trump may be more popular than every American TV network thinks.”

Fixed it.


3 posted on 12/22/2015 12:01:33 PM PST by stephenjohnbanker (My Batting Average( 1,000) since Nov 2014 (GOPe is that easy to read))
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To: LeoWindhorse

I believe Trump’s poll numbers are greatly understated. He’s going to surprise a lot of people when the voting starts.


4 posted on 12/22/2015 12:05:13 PM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: Impala64ssa

That’s why it’s called the silent majority.


5 posted on 12/22/2015 12:05:55 PM PST by proust (Texan for Trump!)
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To: Impala64ssa

If Trump goes face to face with Hillary he will make her attends burst.


6 posted on 12/22/2015 12:10:53 PM PST by jetson
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To: Impala64ssa; Georgia Girl 2; LeoWindhorse

It is considered "fashionable" to be anti-Trump at Christmas cocktail parties and office events these days.
Let's see what happens when polling booth curtains close and people can comfortably pull the lever in privacy without ridicule.

7 posted on 12/22/2015 12:10:56 PM PST by Blue Jays (Rock Hard, Ride Free)
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To: Georgia Girl 2

I concur, his numbers are likely much bigger than are being revealed in these polls. The anger factor alone will bring in millions who’ll be punching ballots for Trump with sledgehammers.


8 posted on 12/22/2015 12:12:25 PM PST by dragnet2 (Diversion and evasion are tools of deceit)
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To: Impala64ssa

I think Trump will pull a lot of Dem votes


9 posted on 12/22/2015 12:13:04 PM PST by Java4Jay (The evils of government are directly proportional to the tolerance of the people.)
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To: Impala64ssa
Some Trump supporters are concerned about being shot by Leftists, as well...
10 posted on 12/22/2015 12:13:10 PM PST by Old Sarge
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To: Impala64ssa

Check this one out!

VIDEO: Women defy media narrative, love Trump at packed Michigan rally...

http://www.theamericanmirror.com/video-ladies-gaga-for-trump-at-michigan-rally/


11 posted on 12/22/2015 12:18:16 PM PST by GOPJ (ISIS used Bill Clinton in recruitment ad as a 'fornicator'- Will Clinton change his lifestyle?)
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To: LeoWindhorse

At the moment there is a giant wave just hitting the beach...soon after the Tsunami hits. With the really big one, we hope to see the evil in America wash to sea, the grafty politicians following. A thorough cleansing of our beloved America. *You are about to see something like you aint never seen before* There are a few who begin to focus on what is coming and attempt to offer words. But some have known from the beginning -it is now our time!

Off now to do a happy dance. Merry Christmas, America


12 posted on 12/22/2015 12:18:45 PM PST by V K Lee (u TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP to TRIUMPH Follow the lead MAKE AMERICA GREAT)
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To: LeoWindhorse

The pollsters are collided..


13 posted on 12/22/2015 12:22:10 PM PST by sheik yerbouty ( Make America and the world a jihad free zone!)
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To: GOPJ

A Great video! Love it. They are telling it like it is.


14 posted on 12/22/2015 12:22:36 PM PST by Duchess47 ("One day I will leave this world and dream myself to Reality" Crazy Horse)
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To: LeoWindhorse

Amazingly, unaware of a single person within my social network who would not vote for Trump...even the two family obamabots whom I’ve had to maintain a relationship with - and previous Hillary fans want Trump. Even my best friend, who hates political conflict, loves Trump.


15 posted on 12/22/2015 12:37:11 PM PST by DefeatCorruption
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To: Impala64ssa

One minute 1980 Jimmy Carter reelection ad, slamming the dangerous fool Ronald Reagan.

Substitute Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, we might see a wipeout in 2016 that will also amaze the “experts.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhkL-mji9UE


16 posted on 12/22/2015 1:54:34 PM PST by Travis McGee (www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com)
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To: Impala64ssa

I certainly hope this article is right. It would be nice to see Trump go to the convention with a lot more delegates than he needs to win. It would be even nicer to see him demolish Clinton, and sweep her into the dustbin of history, never to be seen or heard from again.


17 posted on 12/22/2015 3:57:12 PM PST by euram
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To: Impala64ssa

He’s certainly a lot more popular than the Republican Party can tolerate!


18 posted on 12/22/2015 3:58:20 PM PST by glennaro
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To: Travis McGee

Watched the video. Things haven’t changed much since 1980! That was awesome.


19 posted on 01/11/2016 11:43:43 AM PST by simpson96
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