Posted on 12/18/2015 4:57:57 AM PST by Kaslin
All around the political blogosphere you can find folks smacking their lips over the prospect of a "brokered" Republican national convention. They look forward to the spectacle of delegates assembling in Cleveland with no candidate having a majority, of multiple ballots with governors, floor demonstrations after nominating speeches, congressmen running as favorite sons and delegates demanding that state delegations be polled.
Political junkies relish the idea of watching hours of convention proceedings with the same frisson of ignorance about the outcome that makes sports broadcasts the only live television still commanding a large audience.
I have bad news for those looking forward to a brokered convention. It. Isn't. Going. To. Happen.
That's because it's impossible for party national conventions to serve the same function they did for more than a century after the first Democratic National Convention assembled in Baltimore in May 1832.
Over those years the national convention was a unique communications medium, the only place where politicians from across the nation could meet face-to-face, conduct confidential negotiations and reach an agreement.
In those days, men of business -- and the few women of business -- communicated with each other in written letters. Presidents and party chairmen, like business executives and middle managers, spent their days reading their correspondence and dictating responses to stenographers and secretaries. At the end of the day they would proofread the letters, sign them and see that they were put in the mail.
One such man of business was James A. Farley, Franklin Roosevelt's postmaster general and 1932 and 1936 campaign manager, who signed all his correspondence in green ink. In his memoirs Farley wrote how he arrived at Chicago's Union Station for the 1932 national convention with no idea how many delegates his candidate had or how he could put together enough votes for the nomination. There was no medium in which he could engage in serious negotiations except face-to-face during the convention.
Farley also explained how he correctly predicted that Roosevelt would carry 46 of 48 states in 1936. During the fall campaign he took the extraordinary step of placing a long-distance phone call every week to one well-informed politician in each non-Southern state. To double check, he placed another long-distance call to each the weekend before the election.
Long-distance calls in those days were placed through operators and were expensive -- $1 a minute when average earnings were maybe $50 a week. The first direct distance dialing call was not placed until 1951. They weren't available in major cities until the late 1950s and countrywide in the 1960s.
In those days politicians outside of Congress didn't see much of each other in person. Train travel was time-consuming and plane travel hazardous. Regularly scheduled jet travel began when the Boeing 707 was launched in 1958.
It's no coincidence, then, that the last multi-ballot national convention was in 1952, when Democrats nominated Adlai Stevenson. As long-distance calls and jet flights became more common, some of the communication that could occur only at the convention started happening earlier.
The parties' switch to choosing most delegates in primaries, between 1968 and 1972, also changed things. Before many delegates were chosen by party bosses and did their bidding, like the Tammany, New York, mayor who, when asked who his police commissioner would be, said, "They haven't told me yet." You had to wait until the convention to see how these people would vote.
Not so after 1968, when CBS' Martin Plissner conducted the first media delegate count. Network delegate counts were vindicated in the close 1976 contest between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan. In 1984 Walter Mondale, just short of a majority after the last primary, got commitments from additional delegates and gave their names and numbers to Associated Press delegate counter David Lawsky. By noon the next day he was effectively nominated.
So what happens if no Republican candidate emerges with a delegate majority from the 2016 primaries and caucuses? Does everybody wait for the convention to convene in Cleveland to see who emerges as the nominee?
The answer is yes -- if you do a few things first, such as ban long-distance telephone calls, ban jet travel, ban media delegate counts and shut down the Internet. Then the national convention can function again as national conventions did up through the 1950s.
Otherwise, the negotiations and shenanigans that used to go on only at national conventions will be happening all around us -- as they already are and have been for many months
Brokered Convention—remember, your vote counts! LOLOLOL!
Sanders is beating Hillary in NH but nobody talks about a brokered convention for the libs.
Trump is leading everywhere, already has world leaders bowing to him and the pundits still have their heads buried in the sand. It’s very entertaining to watch to say the least.
Predetermined, perhaps, but not brokered. There is nothing about nominating conventions in the Constitution. Is there anything in federal law regulating them? Those who hold the conventions can probably run them however they see fit and Trump and Cruz just do not fit. Nor does Rubio, actually. Bush is the Chosen One and the RNC would probably have to get the Family okay to substitute someone else. But why should they? The nomination is not a step to election. It is an honor for a prominent Republican of long service and as there are a number of such, it goes to the next in line and Rubio has a high number.
Bich recently reared her ugly head again, this time in Omaha. Disappeared again...probably sleeping off another bender.
She is run on the same battery system in the I-5. Hence the short appearance followed by long down time.
Domoargatto, she is a robotto!
It would be hitting the self-destruct button on the GOP.
Nevertheless, I’m not convinced they won’t try it.
We remember what they did to McDaniel in MS to re-crown Cochran and they finally seem to realize that they have reached their limit and need to do some rethinking if they don't want to have a small blurb in history books as their only "legacy".
Look for newer and sneakier ploys as the election draws near - they might even opt to stay out of the way and use a Cruz or Trump presidency to try to get folks to trust them again. We need to keep the pressure up.
Now for a short public service announcement to all on FR:
We need to ensure we don't get another Obama-like America Hater as the next President.
The best way to ensure that is to actively support a candidate as the next President.
I prefer Cruz and my money goes to his campaign, hence the Cruz link. If you like someone else, donate to him/her (find your own link to do it) and if you use FR and don't donate, then please don't complain about the welfare leeches or those who have Obama Phones because, functionally, you are no different than any other FReeloader
PS - If you are one of those who cannot afford even a small donation to FR or a candidate, God Bless and happy FReeping!.....
GO CRUZ!! Keep it up Trump!!
They would rather have us go down to defeat and then blame us for it. Going back 50 years to reference the Goldwater loss would be like talking about the failed re-election of Taft in 1964. Silly.
That does present a bit of a problem - the trick is to let them take the tumble and remain on our feet - with a Cruz or Trump in the WH, using the Bully Pulpit to full avail, we might have a chance.
Then again, we have a number who claim to be on our side who are all too willing to "bite the big one" to teach them all a lesson by paving the way for Hillary or Jeb...
God help us.
It. Isn’t. Going. To. Happen.
***
~sigh~ Not a fan of Barone, but I am disheartened to see a writer of his talent and experience using that stupid adolescent style construction.
Also, he says that the average salary in 1932 was $50. Sloppy research. It was more like $30.
But he is correct about a brokered convention, I suspect. I watch the conventions — on DVR — but they truly are an anachronism. And such a waste of money.
Pols and the media always think “we the people” are so stupid, hat they must draw a picture for us. They are the stupid, delusional ones. Here is the picture or them.
You have a guy doubling his nearest competitor, he is a smart man of considerable personal achievement(unlike the Democrats Kennedy and Clinton demigods).
He seems to have a crystal ball in calling his shots that then tie in perfectly with future unfolding events. (Remember Kate Steinle’s death and the sanctuary city expose’)
He cuts right to the core of the problem and explains the solution(s) so everyone understands them. No nuanced answers that can later be portrayed as being misunderstood when they turn out to be wrong.
He has totally destroyed all of the other gladiators they have thrown in the ring to fight him. The average person admires and/or likes him, while his peers are envious and jealous of him.
And his ultimate opponent Hillary is like a vampire, that is afraid to come out in the light of day(hence weekend so-called debates). He has taken 100’s of public interviews, she laughs her way through interviews.
And somehow this comes down to a very tight finish with a brokered convention. Talk about delusional.
Go figure
Well you have really done it now. You have laid out the rational reality that is getting ready to unfold in the GOP primaries. The Cruzbots will be calling for you head on a platter.
What many on FR did not see Tuesday evening at the CNN debate was Donald J. Trump close the deal with the GOP voters. Nobody even touched him and he looked better than any other debate. He is continuing a steady climb in the polls as he methodically dispatches one competitor after another.
The last two men standing, Cruz and Rubio are engaged in a slugfest for a distant second place. While all this is going on Trump is looking in his rear view mirror as he sails to the finish line.
LOL we both see this exactly the same way....the fight cruz and Rubio are in now dooms them both...Trump cruises and Hillary’s worse nightmare comes true
Yes and most of the knowledgeable pundits are pretty much accepting it too. Absent an alien abduction Trump will be the GOP nominee. Its just too hard for the Cruzers to accept at this point. So they will keep postulating these tortuous routes to victory for Ted until after Iowa and NH then it will cease. :-)
There's never any evidence that this evil plan actually exists because the plan was the random blog fart of some nobody on the Internet, but the pavlovian response is the same everyday.
I understand those that follow Cruz. But it almost from the beginning they should have realized that Ted would have a hard time broadening his base. His very sincerely held believes are a turn off to this ever increasing irreligious country.
It is nice though to be against a candidate that you admire, because you think they can’t win. Same goes for Dr.Carson.
I agree and I hope Trump makes Cruz VP or AG.
Many people I know think the same thing. I would like to see him as solicitor general, who is the person that argues the US government’s position before the Supreme Court.
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