Posted on 12/17/2015 7:49:50 PM PST by parksstp
Last week’s Crystal Ball repeated its refrain that Donald Trump is very unlikely to get the Republican presidential nomination. However, it issued the caveat that “[i]t would be easier to make our argument if we could explain precisely how and by whom the real estate tycoon will be dethroned.â€
Who can and will defeat Trump? The answer is obvious, but also not obvious because the question seems to beg the name of another candidate. The “who†that will defeat Trump is not another candidate but is most likely to be the Republican voters who actually turn out in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and the other contests.
(Excerpt) Read more at centerforpolitics.org ...
The Uniparty has decided to replace those voters with Third World leeches who embrace socialism and are compliant sheeple when ruled by the corrupt.
The punditocracy is in a tizzy. The final choices are already firming up, and they have another 11 months of drivel to write.
The main purpose of the article was to try to explain the discrepancy in poll numbers. Why some show Trump with a larger lead compared to others that show him with a smaller lead or even trailing.
IA polls that show Trump with 30% or more are based on over 500,000 caucus turnout out of a possible 700,000 or so GOP voters. The highest turnout ever was just under 130,000 in 2008. The “mood” of the people will almost certainly increase turnout this time around, but not by more than 400% or quadrupling. I’ve seen and studied IA’s 99 counties election data for over 16 years. For Trump to get the numbers he would need to get, the voter turnout in places like Polk County (Des Moines), Scott, Linn (Eastern IA/Quads) would need to triple. That number is simply not attainable.
Like I told another FReeper, when the results come in caucus night, the major county to watch is Sioux County, IA, by far the most conservative county in the State and one of the most conservative in the country. If Ted Cruz picks up 50% or more here, he’s on his way to victory in IA comfortably. If by some chance Donald Trump wins Sioux County outright, then he’s probably going to win the state. If Cruz/Trump run less than 5% difference in the county, then the state will probably be close. if I had to guess right now, Cruz would get around 47%, Trump 30%, followed by the others in the county. This would be in line with the Monmouth Poll. That shows Cruz with 31% and Trump in the low-mid twenties.
As for SC, there was a huge increase in turnout from 2008 to 2012. Only 430K showed up in 2008, but that number increased to over 600K in 2012 or almost a 25% increase. The total GOP voter base in SC is around 900,000 so 2012 was already an extrordianary high turnout primary. So the polling may be all over the place here depending on the assumption of how many voters come out. Plus, the results from IA will play a role if the winner in IA (now most likely Cruz or Trump) has an established organization to take advantage of the victory.
At almost 900,000 voters, SC polls say Trump 35%. At 500,000, SC polls say Trump 24%. The truth is somewhere in the middle. Unlike IA, Trump can probably hit 30% here but I still think Cruz will win SC if he wins IA.
In IA, Trump is capped at 27%. I don’t see him getting more than 37,000 votes statewide. It’s not about the number of voters, it’s about the type of voters that normally attend the caucus.
By the same voodoo analysis, I can explain away do-called “high negatives.” There is view of Trump as the TV/WWF “villain” like the Undertaker-—whom everyone “hated” then waited in line to see him for autographs and bought his toys. I don’t know how much of Trump’s negatives are of this variety, but I can assure you some portion is.
At the National GOP Women's Convention's Straw Poll, Carly Fiorina won. They see Carly as strong. I see her as an over botoxed, obnoxious, lying harpy.
Got to remember that NBC only polled Dem voters. Also have to remember that Hillary has health issues and her rallies do not attract the crowds the way that the Donald’s do.
“The intensity of their comments amazed me”
Classic denial. They secretly despise the “beta males” that they have ended up with. The vitriol that they reserve for the discussion of Trump that you heard is actually meant for their own beta males.
When it comes time to pull the lever, they will go with the “bad boy alpha male” as a passive aggressive slap at the their supposed “men” in their lives.
Now for a short public service announcement to all on FR:
We need to ensure we don't get another Obama-like America Hater as the next President.
The best way to ensure that is to actively support a candidate as the next President.
I prefer Cruz and my money goes to his campaign, hence the Cruz link. If you like someone else, donate to him/her (find your own link to do it) and if you use FR and don't donate, then please don't complain about the welfare leeches or those who have Obama Phones because, functionally, you are no different than any other FReeloader
PS - If you are one of those who cannot afford even a small donation to FR or a candidate, God Bless and happy FReeping!.....
GO CRUZ!! Keep it up Trump!!
“We usually don’t want a New Yorker, but he might be the ticket this time.”
IMO, if fighting terrorism is the top issue, Trump will win easily. Imagine if he chose Giuliani as VP.
Especially if they cheat him out of the nomination. People want blood in the streets.
Are voters going to vote to affirm Ryan’s capitulation by selecting one of the Governors or Senators? Notwithstanding Cruz, this voter is not. To paraphrase RR, “ I didn’t leave the Republicans, the Republicans left me”. It’s over for me if one of the GOPe is the nominee, I don’t see a “dime’s worth of difference” between them or Grandma.
Larry, like so many others sees his world going black after Trump’s victory and he is out of his mind with fear.
No. They polled Republicans, Democrats and Independents. And Ted Cruz still came within 3 points of Hilary Clinton(well within the margin of error), while Donald Trump got hammered by a massive 10 points.
The Trump haters are vehement and freak out when his name is mentioned...but it doesn’t mean they’ll vote for cankles. Trump will carry 40 out of 50 states IMO!
Excellent posts but the Undertaker spent 90% of his career as a face and he hardly got booed they originally tried cast him as a villain type but it didn’t take the fans loved him when those lights goes out and he enters the ring the entire place eyperts you could make the case that Trump is more like Stone Cold Steve Austin given that Austin spoke his mind could relate to common man and was extremely anti-establishment
The Illinois senate race was essentially handed to him by getting his only credible opponent to resign by leaking sealed court records. His primary was one by similar tactics. So was his election to the state legislature, though I believe the tactic differed slightly by getting his opponent disqualified from the ballot.
When did Trump ever run for president before?
YEAH. Thanks, Jim.
YEAH. Thanks, Jim.
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