Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

NY Times: How Donald Trump Could Win, and Why He Probably Won’t
New York Times ^ | 12/15/2015 | Nate Cohn

Posted on 12/15/2015 8:04:54 PM PST by SeekAndFind

Despite controversy after controversy, Donald Trump still dominates the polls. With his seemingly impervious lead, it is tempting to declare that he is a clear front-runner for the nomination. From Our Advertisers

He has, after all, defied all expectations of his impending demise, including an early one from this author. If he has survived everything so far, why should he lose now?

Mr. Trump has emerged as a true factional candidate -- much more like Howard Dean or Pat Buchanan than Herman Cain, or other candidates who have surged to the top of the polls only to collapse.

But it's still too soon to say Mr. Trump is the front-runner for the nomination. He has a high floor but a low ceiling, and although he has weathered many controversies, the toughest days are yet to come. Continue reading the main story

The polls already show initial signs of those challenges, like Ted Cruz's lead in Iowa; the number of Republicans who say they would not support him; his weakness in polls of verified voters; and his smaller or nonexistent leads in one-on-one matchups against likely rivals.

His chances of winning -- which are real, even if not good -- depend much more on the weaknesses of his opponents than his own strengths. The good news for Mr. Trump is that the opposition is flawed enough to entertain such an outcome.

The notion that Mr. Trump should be considered a strong front-runner based on current polls is understandable, but inconsistent with recent history. In nearly every election cycle, there are candidates who lead national polls and sometimes even win states, but don’t come close to winning the nomination.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016; elections; immigration; slimes; trump; trumpiswrong; trumpwasright; wronginsomanyways
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-48 next last
To: euram

My faith in republicans is now higher watching Trump stay at the top by far.


21 posted on 12/15/2015 8:18:25 PM PST by entropy12 (Go Trump 2016!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: timestax
 photo d6c6f56b-c2ac-4fc0-87e3-e943ed074aaf_zps8zdqrgr4.jpg

22 posted on 12/15/2015 8:19:39 PM PST by timestax (American Media = Domestic Enemy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Helicondelta

The winner leads! He always does! ;) GO TRUMP!


23 posted on 12/15/2015 8:26:08 PM PST by djstex (Trump Towers Above them ALL!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

I think recent history as illustrated in this case.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

These are Obama and Hillary’s poll numbers through the primaries.

I personally believe Trumpet breakthrough that 50% barrier. But time will tell whether he’s the hillary in this graph.


24 posted on 12/15/2015 8:27:20 PM PST by laxcoach (Government is greedy. Taxpayers who want their own money are not greedy.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Helicondelta

Woo hoo!!

Go Trump :)


25 posted on 12/15/2015 8:34:25 PM PST by Jane Long (Go Trump, go! Make America Safe Again :)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
Don't trust the MSM. Always trying to dictate the outcome and players.
The NY Times lost all credibility decades ago.

http://gph.is/220MJqU

You can copy and paste the URL above into Facebook or Twitter
to have this image animate on your feed.

26 posted on 12/15/2015 8:41:24 PM PST by Bon mots
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
"... true factional candidate"

dictionary.com: "a small, organized, dissenting group within a larger one, especially in politics."

Hmm, seems like the R-Establishment is shrinking into serving as the 'faction.' For example, this 'faction' at Jeb!'s Debate Watch Party:

27 posted on 12/15/2015 8:44:02 PM PST by tinyowl (A equals A)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind
Hey, I've got an idea for another "news" story:

"How the NYT could become a credible newspaper, but DEFINITELY won't".

28 posted on 12/15/2015 8:44:23 PM PST by Sicon ("All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." - G. Orwell)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: tinyowl

Yikes-—that must be downright embarrassing.

.


29 posted on 12/15/2015 8:45:59 PM PST by Mears
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

These guys live in a permanent state of denial. They will still be counting votes when Roberts is swearing Trump in. LOL!


30 posted on 12/15/2015 8:53:16 PM PST by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Sweat is pouring off the Slimes.


31 posted on 12/15/2015 8:57:04 PM PST by Rembrandt (Part of the 51% who pay Federal taxes)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

The Slimes is going full bore for Hitlery.


32 posted on 12/15/2015 9:06:46 PM PST by SoFloFreeper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: E. Pluribus Unum

Oh, no, Trump isn’t even half as radical on the ideological spectrum as Obama. They deserve much worse.


33 posted on 12/15/2015 9:08:58 PM PST by Crucial (At the heart all leftists is the fear that the truth is bigger than themselves.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: E. Pluribus Unum

Oh, no, Trump isn’t even half as radical on the ideological spectrum as Obama. They deserve much worse.


34 posted on 12/15/2015 9:09:16 PM PST by Crucial (At the heart all leftists is the fear that the truth is bigger than themselves.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: SoFloFreeper
 photo 8fbaad7d-5982-4ac1-98d3-48a0202d3b69_zpsecyeslty.jpg
35 posted on 12/15/2015 9:11:21 PM PST by timestax (American Media = Domestic Enemy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: entropy12; Helicondelta

Google image search seems to indicate that the poll is from Slate


36 posted on 12/15/2015 9:16:25 PM PST by map
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: SeekAndFind

Whistling past the graveyard until they hear “RUN BITCHES” and start running.


37 posted on 12/15/2015 9:16:53 PM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: E. Pluribus Unum

You bet.


38 posted on 12/15/2015 9:18:02 PM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: map

Thanks!


39 posted on 12/15/2015 9:22:59 PM PST by entropy12 (Go Trump 2016!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: timestax

That’s SGT SHULTZ,john banner on the TV show hogans heros


40 posted on 12/15/2015 9:25:47 PM PST by HANG THE EXPENSE (Life's tough.It's tougher when you're stupid.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-48 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson