[SeekAndFind]

RE: There is no national primary.

But isn’t the national poll a good indicator of how the primaries will go IN GENERAL?

[CA Conservative]

But isn’t the national poll a good indicator of how the primaries will go IN GENERAL?

No. Rarely have the national polls this far out from the primaries been even remotely accurate in predicting the eventual outcome.

[ripnbang]

RE: There is no national primary.

But isn’t the national poll a good indicator of how the primaries will go IN GENERAL?

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As a snapshot, yes. Of course if you’re a supporter of any other candidate other than Trump, they’re worthless.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Not at all.

[Starstruck]

But isn’t the national poll a good indicator of how the primaries will go IN GENERAL?

Not necessarily. Primary voters tend to be more active and knowledgeable politically. Random phone calls are not going to reflect that. I think the state by state polls are a little more accurate.

Also there is the fact that the early primaries have a ratio system for choosing delegates and the later primaries are winner take all. So where you are leading could become very important.

[Anitius Severinus Boethius]

Not really, not at this stage of the race. In Early December of 2008, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani were neck and neck. McCain was polling in the high single digits and low double digits.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_2008_presidential_primaries

In December of 2012, Newt Gingrich was up by 5 or 6 points over Romney and Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul were neck and neck going for the third slot.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_Republican_Party_2012_presidential_primaries

[demshateGod]

No. Momentum will decide how it goes. The problem is the GOP front loads primaries. This could work in Trump’s favor when all the Howard Stern fans show up to vote.