Posted on 12/14/2015 11:52:53 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
UPDATE:
Republican presidential hopeful Sen. Ted Cruz, of Texas, has overtaken businessman Donald Trump with seven weeks remaining before the Iowa caucuses, according to the latest Loras College Poll, the results of which were released today.
Cruz topped Trump, 29.7 percent to 23.4, as the first-choice candidate among the 499 likely Republican caucus participants surveyed Dec. 7-10.
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Florida Senator Marco Rubio were the only other candidates with double-digit support as a first choice — Carson at 10.8 percent and Rubio at 10.6.
Conservative Iowa Congressman Steve King and noted Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats endorsed Cruz recently....
(Excerpt) Read more at thonline.com ...
Winning in Iowa will change those numbers.
The endorsement for Ted Cruz by Bob Vander Plaats didn't come until Dec 10 and the effect is not fully reflected in either of these poll results. Vander Plaats is highly influential among social conservatives and evangelical Christians in Iowa and can only serve to bolster Cruz's lead in the state.
Thanks. It is how dedicated they are I guess and then how is the weather going to be all
factor into showing up. I think I read somewhere that you have to be in attendace when the
caucus starts or you can’t participate. In other words you can’t walk in midway thru the event.
Is that correct or am I error?
Tony Perkins will help immensely as well.
Not in NH, but maybe in South Carolina and Florida.
Both are very evangelical and Florida’s Cuban population might respond to Cruz. Never can tell with this stuff.
RE: The question is who is leading in Iowa, NH, SC, NV, FL...etc.
_____________________________
Trump leads in NH, Cruz leads in IA.
Last poll I read had Trump leading in Florida AND South Carolina.
See here:
It is now going to boil down to one thing. Money. The best poll of all is who has the gelt to make it.
We all know Trump has as much as he wants. But what I understand is Cruz has gathered a pretty fair war chest.
Now, since Cruz is getting more and more in the spotlight, he will not need to use so much of that money as he would have had to if he did not have the spotlight on him.
According to Wiki the following answers my question, if correct.
snip
Six Republican winners in Iowa, out of nine contests there, have gone
on to win the GOP nomination. (Three were incumbents who ran unopposed.)
I’m going to go onto a slight tangent here, but it addresses lots of what I see on FR lately.
I like both candidates in question. Having said that, both candidates need to be attacked, and vigorously, and constantly.
Why? Because if we don’t do it first, the media will gleefully do it for us, and THEY don’t have our interests at heart.
Trump needs to be hammered on his past. Cruz needs to be hammered on the weaknesses in his record. If they crumble under scrutiny from their own side, how do you think they’ll match up against the Hillary machine?
One way or another, all the weaknesses in both Trump and Cruz are going to be exposed. Best that we do it first, if for no other reason than to dismiss it as old news when the REAL campaign starts.
Current polls mean nothing. Hillary will not be able to withstand the relentless assaults on her character and past criminal conduct. There is also a civil RICO cse against her ging to trial in January, and the judge has already decided there will be no further delays. When they get Hillary on the stand, her, “I can’t remember” answers are not going to fly.
That is correct. You have to be there and checked in at 7pm when the caucus starts. It is not like an election where the polls are open all day and you can come anytime.
I'm not a Trump fan but I do recognize the LSMs pitiful attempts to socially engineer an election.
Loras is a known poll.
So they figured it out after four years, yay.
Thanks for your info. Good luck.
Loras is a Catholic liberal arts college. Maybe known but certainly not mainstream as a public opinion polling powerhouse.
Iowa's polls reflect the state of the race in Iowa at this time - that's all. And no single poll should be used to argue the state of the race. Rather, you look at an aggregation of polls, and see if they generally point to a common trend. In this case, of the last 5 Iowa polls, 4 show significantly increasing his share of support and moving into the lead, while the other shows Trump and Cruz in a dead heat. So I think it is safe to say that as of last week (when most of these polls were conducted) Cruz was leading in Iowa.
Now that does not mean that Cruz will be leading in Iowa in February. Nor do the polls showing Trump leading in national polls mean that he will win any specific states, nor that he will win a majority of delegates or the nomination. Polls are not predictive - they show the state of the race at a specific point in time, and can show trends - but only retrospectively, not prospectively.
But that can’t be true. Trump wins. That’s because he’s a winner. And winners win.
Just ask him. It’s the central theme of his campaign.
National polls are interesting, but it’s a state-by-state race. There are no delegates chosen nationally.
“among the GOP leaders, who matches up BEST against Hillary.”
Not Donald.
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