Posted on 12/14/2015 11:52:53 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
UPDATE:
Republican presidential hopeful Sen. Ted Cruz, of Texas, has overtaken businessman Donald Trump with seven weeks remaining before the Iowa caucuses, according to the latest Loras College Poll, the results of which were released today.
Cruz topped Trump, 29.7 percent to 23.4, as the first-choice candidate among the 499 likely Republican caucus participants surveyed Dec. 7-10.
Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Florida Senator Marco Rubio were the only other candidates with double-digit support as a first choice — Carson at 10.8 percent and Rubio at 10.6.
Conservative Iowa Congressman Steve King and noted Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats endorsed Cruz recently....
(Excerpt) Read more at thonline.com ...
RE: There is no national primary.
But isn’t the national poll a good indicator of how the primaries will go IN GENERAL?
As a snapshot, yes. Of course if you’re a supporter of any other candidate other than Trump, they’re worthless.
Being in Iowa, a question. I know that Cruz will get his troops to the caucuses. But
what are the chances as you see it of Trump having success in getting enough out to be a
factor in the caucuses? He has huge turnouts but that isn’t the same as going to a caucus.
Not at all.
Actually, the fourth - Monmouth, Bloomberg, Fox and this one. Quinnipiac has it as a virtual tie.
Actually, who is leading nationally really is irrelevant at this point
lol
Either Cruz or Trump will beat Hillary in a landslide.
And Iowa's right on the money? Seriously? They can't pick a winner.
Not necessarily. Primary voters tend to be more active and knowledgeable politically. Random phone calls are not going to reflect that. I think the state by state polls are a little more accurate.
Also there is the fact that the early primaries have a ratio system for choosing delegates and the later primaries are winner take all. So where you are leading could become very important.
Not really, not at this stage of the race. In Early December of 2008, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani were neck and neck. McCain was polling in the high single digits and low double digits.
In December of 2012, Newt Gingrich was up by 5 or 6 points over Romney and Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul were neck and neck going for the third slot.
Funny, the cumulative polls here at this point in time tell us that they are both behind Hillary.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
Rubio seems to poll the best one on one against Hillary.
There is no national primary. Cruz does very well vs Hillary. If we want someone we know will beat Hillary, we should draft Algore, but we want conservatism to win. That leaves Trump out.
The last two presidents began their road to two terms by winning the Iowa caucuses.
Remember the Des Moines Register poll was all crap because they hate Trump. Three polls later...
Well, since polling results are the only available measurement, most here in FR may not like the answer.
No. Momentum will decide how it goes. The problem is the GOP front loads primaries. This could work in Trump’s favor when all the Howard Stern fans show up to vote.
Get it straight. The polls showing Cruz leading are biased. The polls showing Trump winning are valid.
Anyway, Cruz* lead in IA will only grow, since Trump*s percentage has remained static for 5 months, while Cruz* percentage has skyrocketed in the past several weeks, and he has a great ground game.
The national polls will change when Cruz wins IA --especially if Cruz wins big.
It is very hard to predict who will actually show up on February 1. Trump does not have a strong ground organization as of yet. Rand Paul has a good organization but small numbers.
“And more importantly, among the GOP leaders, who matches up BEST against Hillary.”
Sorry S&F, no sale! This is how we got all the a$$holes as GOP presidential nominees since Ronald Reagan left office. Scew this idea that we need the one “that can win” because that’s always been the GOPe’s anointed looser. The two Booshes we actuallly did get for president, were both Globalist disgraces to the office and only served to bring in the $hit that the RATs put up.
The question is who is leading in Iowa, NH, SC, NV, FL...etc.
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