Frankly, I think there may be a dark horse in that race. Trump is not appealing to the Evangelicals simply because, as much as he tries to impugn Cruz’ Evangelical status and imply that he’s secretly a Catholic from Cuba, Trump has a virtually non-existent Evangelical church record. Being a Presbyterian by birth (his parents were immigrants from Scotland) does not make him an Evangelical.
I think Iowa may vote for Cruz, but he is a little hard to like. Personally, the one I can’t like at all is Trump, who is insulting, crude and disgusting. But Cruz comes across as so principaled and firm and almost hostile that I think he scares some voters. However, they still might vote for him.
That said, I bet that the next debates are going to see some new candidate surge to the top. I guess that’s why they call it a horse-race...
This election isn’t all about electing the nice guy and Trump does get a good share of evangelical voters who understand the dangers to this nation. Cruz is still the underdog in Iowa. If Cruz wins in Iowa, it’s going to be a squeaker for him.