Posted on 12/12/2015 3:16:51 PM PST by springwater13
Iowa caucuses are dominated by religious social conservatives who go nowhere in New Hampshire. That means a Trump victory against polls will be all the more dramatic. He gets to frame his victory as the people vs. the dishonest media/establishment and their BS polls. The media will go unhinged and into pandemonium. If he wins Iowa, there is no stopping Trump. He rolls into NH, South Carolina, SEC. Game Over. He wins. Keeping expectations in check for Trump in Iowa is to his advantage.
It also takes A LOT OF HEAT off of Trump. With being the front runner, Cruz is going to face major scrutiny like never before. Trump has prospered taking more incoming than anyone else for the last 6 months. Carson wilted under the heat. Now it is Cruz's challenge. Super PACS and GOPe forces will now run attack ads at Cruz instead of Trump to blunt his momentum so he doesn't run away with Iowa. They fear attacking Trump will only move more of his base to Cruz.
The key to winning Iowa is to peak at the end and turn out your voters. Listen to what Chuck Laudner, Trump's Iowa campaign manager, says about his organization. He knows what he is doing. Trump has a database of many, many tens of thousands of voters who have signed pledge cards. Trump is getting crowds to his rallies in the thousands in counties where in 2012 only a few hundred people turned out to vote for the winner.
Basically, if Trump turns out the majority of his support he wins. It's all about organization. He has the votes to win. The question is do they turn out? I think if they show up for 3 hour rallies. They'll show up for a 45 minute caucus.
You think Trump is conservative or not conservative?
Whatever he is, his supporters for the most part THINK he is conservative. I find him to be a question mark on some key issues. If he is who conservative voters want, he is who we should have.
As for wanting a risk taker, that is dangerous if that is all we are seeking. A rabid dog may be great for biting your enemy, but watch out. You may be next. I don’t think that’s a great selling point.
Iowa has a ridiculous amount of influence in the process.
It could be that Cruz will win Iowa although I would not put money on it. But no matter what Trump will run the rest of the table which I am infinitely more interested in.
I pray that you are right. The more that I think about it, I would prefer that we would see a Trump/Cruz ticket. After that, Cruz would have a good chance at the presidency.
There are no other candidates in the offing at the present time that I would consider supporting.
Are the democrats crossing over to vote in the republican caucus?
“I hope Cruz wins Iowa and several other good primaries; but I hope Trump wins a decisive nomination and they form a ticket.”
President Cruz would not take a non-conservative for VP. Cruz would not accept VP for a non -conservative either.
“Huckabee...... winner then loser
Santorum....... winner then loser
Cruz...... ???”
winner winner
“Conservative enough for me, this time around. Time for ideological purity later if Trump wins this.”
...and Obama was not vetted either, just carried by emotion like Rump.
“Would it be better to have a conservative or a risk-taker ? “
A non establishment Conservative. GoTed!
I would go with not conservative. Although he has been conservative on his campaign spending. It depends on what one means by 'conservative'.
You speak of what conservative voters want, but what we need is for Republican voters to select Trump. Some of the Republican voters may be conservative, but not all are.
As for wanting a risk taker, that is dangerous if that is all we are seeking.
I don't think we have the same view on what the term 'risk-taker' means. For example:
Someone who will evaluate what is good for the country, and do what is necessary to achieve that, even if it means going against the grain(the establishment) and risking their career.
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