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Tuesday, March 1 (Super Tuesday)
Alabama, Alaska (GOP), Arkansas, Colorado caucuses, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota caucuses, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia
Saturday, March 5
Kansas caucus, Kentucky (GOP caucus), Louisiana
Tuesday, March 8
Hawaii caucus (GOP), Idaho (GOP), Mississippi, Michigan
Sunday, March 13
Puerto Rico (GOP)
Then: Tuesday, March 15
Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio... and Jeb's FL, magically one day after the cut-off
This is the formula for Constitutional Crisis.
This is a plausible scenario to deny Trump the Presidency, even if he wins 49% of the electoral vote. (Bill Clinton actually won with 42%).
The GOP House could install Jeb Bush or Mitt Romney no matter how distantly they finished in third. An insurrection would follow.
And clearly, if it goes that far and the gOpE attempt to control the results is obvious, a breakaway Third Party bid is all but certain.
This all starts in just 10 weeks... and Iowa is only 7 weeks away.
Trump and Cruz will divide about 40% of the delegates voting in the Republican convention. The remaining 60% will consolidate either before or shortly after the start of the convention on an establishment candidate (Probably Rubio). I know many of you don’t want to hear that, but the pure math and pragmatic politics will prevail.
The RNC won’t have the balls to go against Trump. They will cave very quickly. Caving is what they do best. Just ask Obama.
Here’s my question to everyone here. Have we passed the point where voters matter at all? If the GOPe pulls some crap and gets their guy in, what have they lost. They don’t rely on small contributions anymore, it’s all the big donors and all those donors want is influence no matter how the get there.
So IMHO there’s really nothing stopping the GOP from sabotaging Trump even against the will of the people. If they get their guy, they’re golden, if it’s Hillary, even better.
Tell me where I’m wrong.
At this point in the campaign, it’s too much like long-range weather forecasting to say what could happen at the convention. One thing is for sure though: the GOPe have just been waiting for Trump to implode. Their problem is that he’s simply not going to accommodate them. To knock him out, he’s going to have to be beaten, and Cruz is playing a very, very smart strategy and still my dark horse favorite, which is where you want to be as a candidate at this stage.
We’ll know after Florida. Until then, it’s all speculation.
Brokered convention. It’ll depend who falls out, and when.
Rove doesn’t have the brass to pull off anything too obvious and I’m not seeing Trumps lead diminishing to the point where fraud could explained away.
These are the type of shenanigans that Trump alluded to when he said he could consider as 3rd party run. At this point, I wonder if the death of the GOP that would result would be all that bad a thing?
“Why Trump will NOT be the GOP nominee”
Just another premature journalistic ejaculation.
The long knives for Trump are working overtime....fact check every thing they say Trump says....the waters are being muddled so fast you have trouble keeping up with the misinformation - disinformation.....Trump is lifting the Political Correct Veil from real issues facing America...he is showing enormous courage in the face of politicians and lobbyists who don’t want their way of life changed...with no regard to Americans. Stop Trump and you stop a better America with less corruption.....this Nation is almost as corrupt politically and financially as our Southern neighbor.
That’s an interesting analysis with a lot of truth in it. Nevertheless, Trump still can pull it off, but it would depend on some events breaking his way.
Trump’s only serious roadblock in this race is Cruz. A great conservative, but completely unelectable for scores of reasons. But a very likely scenario is that Trump and Cruz come out of Iowa, NH and SC as numbers 1 & 2. The establishment candidates who still had enough votes to look respectable out of those states would probably be very few––maybe even just one or two. On top of that, the GOP and the media would be putting incredible pressure for those to get out.
But as the primaries progress and the proportionality states begin to unfold, the establishment candidate would be drawing far less than 50% (probably closer to 25%), while the majority of the vote would be split between Trump and Cruz, and therein lies the problem. If Cruz dropped out (or the voters quit supporting him in large numbers), Trump would dominate and would be unstoppable––even if the establishment was able to get everyone out but their one candidate. Trump would win the majority of GOP votes and could easily secure the needed 1254 (?) delegates. He would probably even do so early.
But since Cruz is unlikely to drop out or even seriously fade, for Trump to win the nomination he would have to win all the winner take all states, and dominate (40%+) in all the proportionality states. Possible? Yes, but when looking at the polls today it doesn’t appear likely.
But he hasn’t spent any money on ads yet, so it’s possible that he could create some devastating anti-Cruz ads that would seriously hurt Cruz’s numbers. He could also cut a deal with Cruz (he is the Art of the Deal guy) whereby Cruz would be promised the VP if he got out. Cruz, who must know how difficult it would be for him to win, would probably be smart enough to take him up on that offer.
Trump’s lawyers are meaner, nastier and more competent that the lawyers for the RNC.
Trump will prevail.
No one wants Trump, but the people.
I will vote for Trump in my state’s primary.
All bets are off imo. Trump has said that he was dissapointed with GOPe candidates McCain and Romney and decided to do the job himself. Business maverick Trump has simply caught the GOPe, the conservative front-end for the corrupt Washington cartel, off guard.
I’m sure Trump has people on this.
I’d say Trump’s biggest concern right now is personal security, and I’m sure he’s on that, too.
What with Hillary skulking in the wings...
I think several of the candidates will quickly start pulling essentially 0% and not get any of the proportionate delegates. Thus allowing Trump to actually pull more delegates. Also, people like to be with the majority. If Trump gets momentum early, he will likely rise substantially in the percentage take.