Posted on 12/07/2015 9:54:00 AM PST by Isara
Sen. Ted Cruz has surged past Donald Trump in Iowa with less than two months to go before the nation's first nominating contest, giving Cruz his first lead in any early voting state during the campaign.
A Monmouth University poll said Cruz has 24 percent support among likely Republican caucus-goers in Iowa, a 14-point jump for the Texas senator since October.
Trump won 19 percent in the poll, giving Cruz a 5 percent lead that's outside the margin of error.
Much of Cruz's support stems from evangelical Iowans who back the conservative senator 30 percent to Trump's 18 percent. Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson previously led the GOP field in support among this coveted demographic, but now earns just 15 percent support among evangelicals, putting him behind Cruz, Trump, and Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla. (16 percent).
Cruz also carries a substantial lead among voters affiliated with the Tea Party. The freshman senator earns 36 percent support compared to Trump (20 percent), Carson (17 percent) and Rubio (11 percent).
Cruz's rise can also be attributed, in part, to his recent endorsement from Iowa Rep. Steve King. Roughly 20 percent of Republicans in the Hawkeye State said King's support makes them more inclined to back Cruz come Feb. 1, including 7 percent who claim King's endorsement makes them "a lot more likely."
Rubio has met with some difficulties while trying to woo Tea Party supporters after his role in the 2013 Gang of Eight immigration bill, which proposed a 13-year pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants in the United States. While that bill damaged his reputation among the hard-line conservative movement, the Florida senator leads the GOP field among women in Iowa with 23 percent support.
That support helped keep Rubio in third place in the poll. He follows right behind Trump's 19 percent with 17 percent in the poll. Carson, who had a commanding lead in Iowa less than two months ago, has plummeted to 13 percent. At 6 percent support, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is the only other Republican contender to poll above 5 percent.
According to the poll, Rubio is the most-liked Republican candidate in Iowa, as 70 percent of voters hold a positive view of the Florida senator. Cruz and Carson each boast a net-positive favorability rating of 67-19 percent, while Trump is viewed favorably by 54 percent of voters and unfavorably by 36 percent. Bush, meanwhile, has a net-negative favorability rating of 38-45 percent.
The New-Jersey based survey of 425 likely Republican caucus-goers was conducted between Dec. 3-6 and contains a margin of error plus or minus 4.8 percent.
.
Even an honest poll (rare as they may be) is just a snapshot unless done periodically.
Stay tuned, Cruz fits the current events; the rest fail dismally.
More terror, more Cruz.
More Obama tripe, more Cruz.
.
Trump, like Hillary, polls very high negatives. Those need to go down before his electability can be assured. Unlike Hillary he can’t use vote fraud to carry him over the negatives.
Awesome, Ted!!! Keep it rolling!!!
I agree. Iowa has a convoluted system in order to be “first” because NH has a hissy fit.
The media says “evangelicals” the same way they describe cannibals. Also the establishment media has be working double time to drown out trump with huckster, graham, Kasich and jbush.
I think the GOPe is thrilled with the so-called Cruz “surge” because strategically it puts them one step closer to Rubio as the nominee.
GOPe will go with the lesser of the two evils, they’d pick Cruz over Trump.
Kudos to writer Gabby Morrongiello for stating the truth.
Cruz’s surge was inevitable.
I worry that it’s too soon. There’s plenty of time and blood money to attack him. It will be interesting to see what Trump’s reaction is and we shall see how Cruz responds to attacks.
Will he sit back and let happen like Newt (not enough money) or will he start using more of his accumulated war-chest and go on the offensive?
Because Cruz can't win without donors and all donors are pro-amnesty.
Is there an unwritten rule, that Trump has to be at the top of every poll? Did I miss something?
I do like cruz but I do not like the fact he has the same fatal flaw as other establishment candidates. He is beholding to k street dollars.
I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if we learn someday Trump was running interference for Cruz all along. After all, we know the both of them held strategy sessions. And really, other than wishing to help the country, does Trump really need the pain in the ass that comes with being the president - I don’t think so.
Everyone surges except Trump. Cruz putting all his eggs in Iowa, which frankly is meaningless.
“Is there an unwritten rule, that Trump has to be at the top of every poll? Did I miss something?”
Yes.. that polls not showing Trump on top lack legitimacy.
I’ve been waiting for this for months.
That is not what happened to Newt. What happened to Newt was he abandoned what was working for him - twice. And in fact, he did try and fight back against Mitt, while he should have stayed with what brung him in the first place.
(s) Admiral Akbar says “follow the dollars” (/s)
So you’re saying this is a 2 horse race plus a pawn?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.