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Poll: Cruz surges to first in Iowa [Monmouth poll]
Politico ^ | 12/07/2015 | Nick Gass

Posted on 12/07/2015 9:09:43 AM PST by GIdget2004

Stoked by evangelical and tea-party support, Ted Cruz has surged to first place in Iowa, according to the results of a Monmouth University poll released Monday surveying voters likely to participate in the Republican caucus on Feb. 1.

Cruz earned 24 percent of support among likely caucus-goers, with 19 percent opting for Donald Trump, whose polling advantage in the state has dwindled in recent weeks. In a Quinnipiac University survey conducted in mid-November, Trump held a slim 25 percent to 23 percent advantage over Cruz, while retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson finished with 18 percent.

In this survey, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio finished third with 17 percent, followed by 13 percent for Carson (a 19-point drop from October), 6 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 4 percent for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, 3 percent for former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and 2 percent for New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. All other candidates finished with 1 percent or less support, with 4 percent undecided and 1 percent describing themselves as "uncommitted."

(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Iowa
KEYWORDS: cruz; elections; iowa; polls; tedcruz
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To: GIdget2004

Cruz takes the heartland, Trump takes the coasts, and the GOPe gets NOTHING!

Let the best man win!


41 posted on 12/07/2015 9:51:03 AM PST by SteveSCH
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To: Anitius Severinus Boethius

If Trump has really slipped in Iowa it’s because he called the voters stupid for supporting Carson. He got his point across but the benefactor was Cruz, not him. This tactic will not work in SC and I predict Trump takes the state.


42 posted on 12/07/2015 9:51:54 AM PST by NKP_Vet (In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle,stand like a rock ~ T, Jefferson)
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To: erod

If Iowa doesn’t matter they would not be critical.


43 posted on 12/07/2015 10:07:07 AM PST by American Constitutionalist ( because the Constitution matters.)
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To: Kenny
The MSM knows the Cruz crowd is out there and that is their very last hope, that Cruz can dislodge Trump and let the establishment back in.

In most parts of the country, Cruz takes more from Carson than from Trump. Trump has his 25-35% nationwide. That said, there is no reason why Iowa, whose Republicans are much less interventionist than say, New York Republicans, micht support Cruz.

If Trump and Cruz are #1 and #2 (in any order, right now it is Trump 1st), there are no true Establishment guys to turn to.
44 posted on 12/07/2015 10:07:27 AM PST by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics)
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To: LS

Yep, it was an easy call for the Carson “lead” too. The drive bys and pollsters are desperate to stop Trump. I’ll say again, I believe the polls. But I’m highly suspicious of those that show Carson . . . or Cruz . . . coming out of nowhere to “surge” ahead of the guy who’se been on top, everywhere, for six months.
________________________________________________________

I am a skeptic when it comes to individual polls. I am also a skeptic when they suddenly show candidates surging out of nowhere for no real reason. That is not the case with most polls over the last month or so.

Cruz hasn’t really “surged.” He has been slowly but steadily climbing since the second debate.

Carson keeps talking and his poll numbers reflect that. He has been steadily declining.

Trump’s recent decline in Iowa is a bit more troublesome to explain but can probably be attributed to ground game. Trump is everywhere, holding rallies across the country. His national numbers are off the chart and the national poll numbers reflect this. Cruz, however, has been much more focused on Iowa and that seems to be reflected in the trends shown in the polls as well.

Rubio has been launching highly visible ads in Iowa attacking Cruz (from what I have read). He is not shaking Cruz or Trump supporters but is getting some of the GOPe voters (the Bush, Kasich, Krispy Kreme and undecided GOPe supporters).


45 posted on 12/07/2015 10:10:31 AM PST by FerociousRabbit
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To: heights

Ted Cruz No liberal appeal ? Just darnit, what a shame.


46 posted on 12/07/2015 10:13:56 AM PST by American Constitutionalist ( because the Constitution matters.)
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To: NKP_Vet

I agree: FL will be the forecast state again. Takes a ton of money to play there.

Does anybody know where the FL primary sits relative to the debate schedule? Wondering if a Newt style/SC repeat could be in line for FL for somebody like Cruz this year.


47 posted on 12/07/2015 10:18:35 AM PST by reviled downesdad (Mother Teresa on abortion: "It's poverty that children must die so people can live as they choose")
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To: Bob434

LOL, you ain’t joking.

They tell me not to even go on Trump threads and talk about Trump there, or anywhere on FR but yet ? They come on Ted Cruz threads at free will and trash Ted Cruz and his supporters.

As Ted Cruz climbs higher in the polls consistantly and over takes Trump they will get desparte to dislodge Ted Cruz as the premere anti-establishment candidate.


48 posted on 12/07/2015 10:24:23 AM PST by American Constitutionalist ( because the Constitution matters.)
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To: American Constitutionalist

You can tell a lot about someone by the enemies they have, and Trump and Cruz got the same enemy list!

This Trump vs Cruz slap fight is dumb and counter productive. They are the only two men fighting for America, and if either were the nominee I would be very happy moving forward.


49 posted on 12/07/2015 10:33:13 AM PST by SteveSCH
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To: SteveSCH
Cruz takes the heartland, Trump takes the coasts, and the GOPe gets NOTHING!

Let the best man win!


Yeppers!
50 posted on 12/07/2015 10:34:26 AM PST by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics)
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To: Bob434

you ought to go in and ask them for anything (!!!) that Trump has ever actually DONE in his life that shows that he has any sincerely held conservative beliefs. Been doing it for months...

Here are the answers I’ve received (seriously):
1. Watch the Apprentice...you’ll see (really?!?)
2. He supports veterans (just like Dems do when they need their votes)
3. He’s a really successful businessman, therefore he’s a capitalist, therefore he’s a conservative (I tend to think Bill Gates, George Lucas, Steve Jobs might object to that characterization)

Its great fun watching them twist themselves into knots and then turn and attack because that’s all they’ve got. I think I’m going to change my tack though and start asking them if they want Capt Kardashian appointing the next 3 supreme court justices.


51 posted on 12/07/2015 10:38:41 AM PST by Axeslinger (Where has my country gone?)
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To: C210N

LOL! Perhaps in the next few weeks he will break out of the pack.


52 posted on 12/07/2015 10:39:45 AM PST by Maine Mariner
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To: Zenjitsuman

Iowa isn’t about advertising, it’s about getting your people to a community building, at night, on a cold Winter’s evening.


53 posted on 12/07/2015 11:04:23 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet (TED CRUZ. You can help: https://donate.tedcruz.org/c/FBTX0095/)
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To: Maine Mariner

If she does break out of the pack, it will more likely be below the bottom, rather that over the top.


54 posted on 12/07/2015 11:10:59 AM PST by C210N (When people fear government there is tyranny; when government fears people there is libertye)
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To: Axeslinger

[[you ought to go in]]

Can’t- I’m too busy jabbing myself In the eye with a sharp stick

I did pose several questions after the initial pile on was over- and basically all I got was “People in business like Trump have to deal with ‘dirty politics’ all the time... therefore he would make an excellent president and anyone that doesn’t agree is a big poopie head”


55 posted on 12/07/2015 11:23:37 AM PST by Bob434
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To: heights

Well Conservative like me could not care about Trump at all...
There’s that.


56 posted on 12/07/2015 11:36:35 AM PST by carjic (Media and GOPe are making the only people I trust not electable)
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To: LS

coming out of nowhere to “surge” ahead of the guy who’se been on top, everywhere, for six months.

************
Trump was never that far ahead in Iowa— it’s not made for him.

I posted a thread weeks ago, and you and I discussed the issue (I believe)- Carson and Cruz were splitting the conservative/ evangelical vote; Trump should have left them.

Instead Trump, either deliberately or inadvertently, handed Cruz the advantage when he attacked Carson personally and called Iowans “stupid”. Carson had a 80-90% favorability in the state. When Carson’s supporters left him, who were they going to turn to— the guy who called him “pathological”?

There’s no conspiracy here. One isn’t going to win a state when he calls its voters “stupid.”

Whether or not Trump deliberately ceded Iowa to Cruz will become evident soon. We’ll see how Trump reacts.


57 posted on 12/07/2015 11:41:04 AM PST by VinL (It is better to suffer every wrong, then to consent to wrong.)
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To: Kenny

Cruz is not the establishment and if he surges to the top, there will be no line of attack anyone can use to take him down. Cruz is the real deal. The only issue Cruz has had has been publicizing himself and getting his positions and backstory widely known. Once he overcomes that, Cruz will be unstoppable to win the nomination, and he appears to be on his way.


58 posted on 12/07/2015 12:15:47 PM PST by JediJones (The #1 Must-see Filibuster of the Year: TEXAS TED AND THE CONSERVATIVE CRUZ-ADE)
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To: heights

You don’t win with Democrat-lite.

Pretty stunning to see on FR someone criticizing a Republican because Democrats don’t like him enough. Is this Trumpism?

The electability argument is a loser. Polls show most Republicans beating Hellary and Trump and Cruz were only 1 point apart in the last one.


59 posted on 12/07/2015 12:21:40 PM PST by JediJones (The #1 Must-see Filibuster of the Year: TEXAS TED AND THE CONSERVATIVE CRUZ-ADE)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

If Cruz is “anti-constitutional,” then who the hell in your mind is constitutional enough?

And please don’t say Trump, who said he supports the government listening in on everyone’s phone calls.


60 posted on 12/07/2015 12:23:22 PM PST by JediJones (The #1 Must-see Filibuster of the Year: TEXAS TED AND THE CONSERVATIVE CRUZ-ADE)
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