Posted on 12/02/2015 6:46:39 AM PST by VinL
Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican presidential race ..in both polling and media attention. But in a new Quinnipiac University national poll on the 2016 field, it's Ted Cruz who looks like the candidate you may want to bet on.
Here's why.
In the ballot test, Cruz has 16 percent support.. and is in a statistical tie for second place with Ben Carson and Marco Rubio. Carson is very much headed in the wrong direction; he was at 23 percent in a Q poll conducted a month ago and is down seven points. Rubio is moving in the right direction (up three points from last month, to 17 percent), as is Cruz (up three points). And, Cruz's trend line is quite clear and quite good. He was at 5 percent in a Q poll in late July, 7 percent in a September poll and 16 now. Trend lines matter more than anything else in national primary polling, and no one this side of Rubio has a better trend line than Cruz.
Dig deeper into the findings and things look even better for the senator from Texas. Although Cruz is at 16 percent among all Republicans, he runs significantly stronger among three subgroups: "very" conservative voters, tea party supporters and white born-again/evangelical voters. Those subgroups are also the three most important and powerful when it comes to deciding the GOP nominee in 2016.
Among tea partyers, Cruz is tied with Donald Trump at 29 percent .. well ahead of Carson at 17 percent and Rubio at 12. Among evangelicals, Cruz and Trump, again, are tied .. this time at 24 percent .. with Carson at 19 percent and Rubio at 13. Twenty nine percent of those who identify as "very" conservative choose Cruz, while Trump takes 25 percent, Carson 15 percent and Rubio 11 percent.
The Q poll also shows that Cruz has one very clear edge over Trump as the race moves forward: Almost no one said they wouldn't support him. Just six percent said they could never back Cruz .. a number matched only by Rubio, at 5 percent. By contrast, more than one in four Republicans (26 percent) say they could never vote for Trump, the highest of any candidate in the contest. (Amazingly Jeb Bush, who gets just 5 percent of the vote in the primary ballot, is second on the "won't vote for" question, with 21 percent.)
Cruz is very well liked .. bordering on beloved among the most conservative and most passionate elements of the Republican base. Even among those who aren't for him, there is very little resistance to voting for him if it came to that. He also is among the best funded candidates in the race .. second only to Bush in terms of total dollars raised. And, unlike Bush, Cruz has a relatively equal balance between money collected for his campaign ($26.5 million) and for his universe of super PACs ($38 million).
Trump will continue to suck up the vast majority of the energy and media attention in the race. Rubio will rightly be touted as the most likely nominee. But, keep your eye on Cruz: He has put himself in a perfect position to make a serious run at the nomination over the next six months.
The folks who have been sleeping are those who have been ignoring him.
Cruz on, Ted.
Ted is running his campaign perfectly.
Trump is on top of the hill right now.
I like both, but I prefer Cruz.
We shall see.
But if it’s Trump or Cruz, I can totally live with that.
I think promoting Cruz will be the lame stream new strategy.
They believe that Cruz is less electable in the general than Trump, so they will start pushing him.
[They believe that Cruz is less electable in the general than Trump, so they will start pushing him.]
Exactly!!! When WaPo is pumping him up, I have to cast my doubts....
When the Washington post pushes Cruz, you know they are SCARED TO DEATH OF TRUMP. That’s all you need to know.
I like Cruz a lot, but I also think that he may have a harder time getting elected than Trump.
Cruz is more cerebral, Trump connects more at a visceral level, so he would do much better with the Joe Sixpacks.
The other thing that scares the libs about Trump is that he would be much more effective at pushing his agenda than Cruz, strictly through his larger than life personality.
He’d be like a bull in a liberal China closet. It’s why I tend to favor him over Cruz (though, as I said I definitely like Cruz).
My preference is Cruz, but I think your assessment is accurate.
“The other thing that scares the libs about Trump is that he would be much more effective at pushing his agenda than Cruz, strictly through his larger than life personality.”
This should also concern Conservatives, those who oppose national healthcare (single payer) and those who are concerned about big government intrusion (NSA) in our private lives.
I don’t see Trump instituting single payer (he’s for market solution), nor am I too concerned about his use of the NSA.
I see him as a common sense, get-it-done, pragmatist who cares for his country - right now I’ll gladly take that.
Yes I agree. The MSM pushing Cruz. What’s wrong with that picture? They are just desperate for any hint that Trump might not win. The fact that Trump is almost over the finish line is driving the Leftard MSM crazy.
Trump’s solution to healthcare is a single payer system like Canada or Scotland. He’s said that several times including in the first or second debate. He’s also remarked about how good and efficient the healthcare in those two countries are.
Trump wants to keep NSA’s program of bulk data collecting and abuses and is a proponent of national registries.
I prefer some one who apparently does prefer a free market solution to the healthcare problem and someone who will protect us from enemies foreign and domestic. Domestic includes big government. Ted Cruz 2016
Q: Now, 15 years ago, you called yourself a liberal on health care. You were for a single-payer system, a Canadian-style system. Why were you for that then and why aren’t you for it now?
TRUMP: As far as single payer, it works in Canada. It could have worked in a different age. What I’d like to see is a private system without the artificial lines around every state. I have a big company with thousands of employees. And if I’m negotiating in BY or NJ or CA, I have like one bidder. Nobody can bid. You know why? Because the insurance companies are making a fortune because they have control of the politicians. They’re making a fortune. Get rid of the artificial lines and you will have yourself great plans. And then we have to take care of the people that can’t take care of themselves. And I will do that through a different system.
Whether it’s Trump or Cruz, someone needs to break the GOPe that runs interference for the loony lefties before they can be fought.
Delusional. I have extended family with cancer in Canada and their go slow under treatment will likely prove fatal. It wasn't any better for her parents. Compare cure rates for major cancers here and there, or even more dramatically in UK (which includes Scotland where Trump also touted single payor) which has the worst cancer survival in Europe.
Another problem I have with Trump are things like this, I believe it was the first and not the second debate that I heard Trump endorse the Canadian and Scottish single payer healthcare. When and where is the Q&A you posted from? The problem I now have with Trump is two completely different answers to the same question. Despite his deport em all stance he is apparently on record FOR merit based amnesty, FOR wind energy subsidies and FOR ethanol and it’s subsidies.
Yep, it's an overlooked gem. There are several in the poll. The news is good for Cruz, not so much for Trump.
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