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Why Ted Cruz Probably Won’t Win
National Review ^ | 11/25/2015 | HENRY OLSEN

Posted on 11/25/2015 12:15:34 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel

Ted Cruz is now the flavor of the week. He has risen dramatically in polls, both nationally and in key states like Iowa, and now many pundits are saying he's the man to watch. Maybe so, but that vastly underestimates the challenge the very conservative senator from Texas still faces.

Cruz's rise is almost entirely due to his finally getting strong levels of support among the most angry and the most conservative elements of the party. If they were the party, it would be looking pretty good for Ted. But they are not, and therein lies Cruz's challenge. Call it the Cruz Ted bears.

The data are clear that Cruz is consolidating the party's Tea Party and very conservative factions. Three national polls in November break Republicans into three ideological categories, dividing conservatives into "very" and "somewhat" conservatives. They all show Cruz's support comes primarily from that first group. Quinnipiac has him with 27 percent among very conservatives, 7 percent among somewhat conservatives, and 6 percent among moderates. McClatchy/Marist has him at 21-8-5 among those three groups, and Public Policy Polling (PPP) has him at 29-10-1. The ideological right likes him a lot, while the center and the left of the Party are at best lukewarm towards him.

The same trends are evident if you break voters into Tea Party supporters and non-supporters. Quinnipiac has Cruz getting 30 percent of Tea Partiers compared with only 13 percent overall. PPP has him getting 26 percent of Tea Partiers but only 10 percent of those who say they are not.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Texas
KEYWORDS:
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

A conservative is the GOPs only hope. The only other choices are Bush and Rubio.


41 posted on 11/25/2015 12:58:15 PM PST by Mike Darancette (CA the sanctuary state for stupid.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

“If they were the party, it would be looking pretty good for Ted. But they are not, and therein lies Cruz’s challenge.”

You’re right Henry (whoever you are). “They” aren’t the “party”. “They” are Americans who are seriously pissed off at the direction our country has taken. And if you think only GOP primary voters are pissed, you’re badly mistaken. I know many registered Democrats (I live in Western PA, where there are a lot of conservatives who think they’re Democrats) who wouldn’t piss on Obama if he was on fire.


42 posted on 11/25/2015 12:59:37 PM PST by ManHunter (You can run, but you'll only die tired... Army snipers: Reach out and touch someone)
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To: Dr. Sivana
I am a Cruz supporter. But an article like this has to address the elephant in the room, Donald Trump.

National Review lives in a magical world where Donald Trump doesn't exist.

43 posted on 11/25/2015 1:05:32 PM PST by Drew68
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To: VinL

Funny, one of my virtual computers is locked down to the point where it won’t load NR.


44 posted on 11/25/2015 1:10:12 PM PST by Paladin2 (my non-desktop devices are no longer allowed to try to fix speling and punctuation, nor my gran-mah.)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain
among the most angry and the most conservative elements of the party.

Uh..... I think they are talking about us,

45 posted on 11/25/2015 1:12:07 PM PST by catfish1957 (I display the Confederate Battle Flag with pride in honor of my brave ancestors who fought w/ valor)
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To: JLAGRAYFOX
Yep, DT is THE candidate to achieve the GOPee vision - win the middle.

That the right will support him to P|$$ on the GOPee will put him over the top.

46 posted on 11/25/2015 1:13:40 PM PST by Paladin2 (my non-desktop devices are no longer allowed to try to fix speling and punctuation, nor my gran-mah.)
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To: conservativejoy
They said Cruz couldn’t win his Senate seat, too.

I was a huge Cruz supporter in his senate bid. Dewhurst staffers laughed at us, when we told them we'd win. There is a reason GOPE(e) hates us.

47 posted on 11/25/2015 1:15:30 PM PST by catfish1957 (I display the Confederate Battle Flag with pride in honor of my brave ancestors who fought w/ valor)
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To: catfish1957

You guys did a heck of a job! Congratulations!


48 posted on 11/25/2015 1:17:20 PM PST by conservativejoy (Pray Hard, Work Hard, Trust God,,,, We can elect Ted Cruz!)
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To: conservativejoy
They said Cruz couldn’t win his Senate seat, too. He ran against the establishment machine in Texas and beat the establishment candidate in the primary and won in the general by 14%.

This happened in conservative Texas. I have no confidence in the rest of America to do the same at the national level.

49 posted on 11/25/2015 1:20:43 PM PST by Vision Thing
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To: C. Edmund Wright

I noticed that too. BlackFemaleArmyCaptain is about as rabid a Trump fanboi as I’ve ever seen.


50 posted on 11/25/2015 1:21:41 PM PST by Theo (May Christ be exalted above all.)
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To: Georgia Girl 2
This is why in many national polls Cruz is still at 7%-8.5%

Try 14% Fox News, 14% PPP and 18% NBC

51 posted on 11/25/2015 1:27:41 PM PST by SmokingJoe
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To: Vision Thing
This happened in conservative Texas. I have no confidence in the rest of America to do the same at the national level.

Tell me the truth. Have you ever truly listened to what Sen. Cruz has to say?. He truly articulates his vision for the country in a manner I have not seen since Reagan. He is the best debater I have ever seen, as in evidence of his mincing Dewhurst to shreds in the Sen. race. No one, repeat no one had him having a chance in that spring of the election,

This is a great American, and someone (including Trump) who should underestimate at their peril.

52 posted on 11/25/2015 1:35:32 PM PST by catfish1957 (I display the Confederate Battle Flag with pride in honor of my brave ancestors who fought w/ valor)
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To: catfish1957

I have no problem with Cruz. If you read my post again, my problem is with the the majority of America, which seems unable to appreciate much less vote for a great man like Ted Cruz.


53 posted on 11/25/2015 1:41:58 PM PST by Vision Thing
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

I would love to see a President Ted Cruz—but—right now it is about who has the best chance of beating Hillary. For some reason, the RNC is not thinking that way.


54 posted on 11/25/2015 1:56:47 PM PST by mikey_hates_everything
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To: Theo

Rabid and very shallow thought process as demonstrated on the forum from what I’ve seen. I am always interested in WHY a person thinks what they think in addition to WHAT they think or WHO they support or do not support. Some are a tad weak on the “why” part.


55 posted on 11/25/2015 2:10:08 PM PST by C. Edmund Wright (WTF? How Karl Rove and the Establishment Lost...Again (Amazon Best Seller))
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To: elhombrelibre

Yep. I don’t see anything bad about Cruz in this article. Why people get upset when something is posted about Cruz that they deem to be negative is beyond me. Wow.


56 posted on 11/25/2015 2:10:08 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I LOVE JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me!)
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To: JLAGRAYFOX

Love it!


57 posted on 11/25/2015 2:10:08 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I LOVE JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me!)
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To: C. Edmund Wright

Go Trump!


58 posted on 11/25/2015 2:10:08 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I LOVE JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me!)
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To: Theo

I noticed that too. BlackFemaleArmyCaptain is about as rabid a JESUS CHRIST fanboi as I’ve ever seen.

There, fixed it.

BlackFemaleArmyCaptain is also a supporter of a true American, Donald Trump! Go Trump!


59 posted on 11/25/2015 2:10:08 PM PST by BlackFemaleArmyColonel (I LOVE JESUS CHRIST because He first loved me!)
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To: BlackFemaleArmyCaptain

Trump/Cruz 2016!!!


60 posted on 11/25/2015 2:15:14 PM PST by nevergore
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