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Russia retreats to autarky as poverty looms
Daily Telegraph ^ | 18 Oct 15 | Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Posted on 10/19/2015 1:54:20 AM PDT by elhombrelibre

Vladimir Putin is falling back on Soviet-era self-reliance as oil wealth evaporates and sanctions cut off vitally-needed technology

Russia is running out of money. President Vladimir Putin is taking a strategic gamble, depleting the Kremlin's last reserve funds to cover the budget and to pay for an escalating war in Syria at the same time.

The three big rating agencies have all issued alerts over recent days, warning that the country's public finances are deteriorating fast and furiously. There is no prospect of an oil revival as long as Saudi Arabia continues to flood the market. Russia cannot borrow abroad at a viable cost.

Standard & Poor's says the budget deficit will balloon to 4.4pc of GDP this year, including short-falls in local government spending and social security. The government has committed a further $40bn to bailing out the banking system.

(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...


TOPICS: Crime/Corruption; Foreign Affairs; Russia
KEYWORDS: autarky; energy; oil; russia; russiaeconomy; russiaoil
"The chief effect has been to shrink the Russian economy in global terms. “GDP was $2.3 trillion at the peak. It is now $1.2 trillion, and I fear we are going back to the level of 1998 when it was $700bn,” he said."

"This would be smaller than Holland ($850bn) or half the size of Texas ($1.4 trillion), a remarkable state of affairs for a country vying for superpower military status in Europe and the Middle East."

1 posted on 10/19/2015 1:54:20 AM PDT by elhombrelibre
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To: elhombrelibre
One possible outcome may be that Russia's economic dependence on China would increase. China could lend money to Russia while others would not. Of course, China would demand some collateral.
2 posted on 10/19/2015 2:15:27 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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To: elhombrelibre

Russia could take out Saudi Arabia and resolve the oil glut problem.


3 posted on 10/19/2015 2:17:55 AM PDT by Cowboy Bob (With Trump & Cruz, America can't lose!)
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To: TigerLikesRooster
They're usually more business savvy than that.
4 posted on 10/19/2015 2:22:37 AM PDT by elhombrelibre (Against Obama. Against Putin. Pro-freedom. Pro-US Constitution.)
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To: Cowboy Bob

Well, they’re partnering with Iran, so that might be their thinking. It’s definitely the type of thinking Putin would have.


5 posted on 10/19/2015 2:23:16 AM PDT by elhombrelibre (Against Obama. Against Putin. Pro-freedom. Pro-US Constitution.)
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To: elhombrelibre

Does “They” mean China or Russia?


6 posted on 10/19/2015 2:26:54 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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To: Cowboy Bob

Putin is chest deep in the Big Muddy. And the fool said to march on.


7 posted on 10/19/2015 2:32:28 AM PDT by Ben Ficklin
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To: Cowboy Bob

“Russia could take out Saudi Arabia and resolve the oil glut problem.”

I believe this could possibly be the main goal of why they are in Syria. To build an alliance with Iran and Iraq and control the Mid-East oil.

He is betting on the US to do nothing and Iran to become the major power in the region.


8 posted on 10/19/2015 2:45:12 AM PDT by CapnJack
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To: CapnJack

He’s very big on Iran; he’s helped them a lot with their air defense and nuclear program.


9 posted on 10/19/2015 2:52:44 AM PDT by elhombrelibre (Against Obama. Against Putin. Pro-freedom. Pro-US Constitution.)
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To: TigerLikesRooster

China. When it’s international investments, they seem to be fairly cautious. Internally, it sounds like they’re as wasteful as any big government monopoly, creating whole cities no one lives in. Abroad their actions look more commercially and militarily strategic.


10 posted on 10/19/2015 2:54:34 AM PDT by elhombrelibre (Against Obama. Against Putin. Pro-freedom. Pro-US Constitution.)
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To: elhombrelibre
Chinese want Siberia and Russian Far East. They would love to incrementally expand their control over the land. Russia needs to get some huge payoff soon from Mid-East venture or becomes a debt slave of China.
11 posted on 10/19/2015 3:10:16 AM PDT by TigerLikesRooster (The way to crush the bourgeois is to grind them between the millstones of taxation and inflation)
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To: elhombrelibre

America’s deficit for the year was 33% of their GDP, what pikers.


12 posted on 10/19/2015 4:47:08 AM PDT by junta ("Peace is a racket", testimony from crime boss Barrack Hussein Obama.)
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To: elhombrelibre

Right now the most vitally needed technology is being deployed over Syria.

And it is working....

Hell is running out of virgins and a record pace. :-)


13 posted on 10/19/2015 5:48:46 AM PDT by JEDI4S (I don't mean to cause trouble...it just happens naturally through the Force!)
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To: elhombrelibre

—— pay for an escalating war in Syria——

What costs are incurred by having troops in syria rather than having them on military reservations in Siberia

The limited actions in Syria are not all that expensive when measured in new money required


14 posted on 10/19/2015 5:53:45 AM PDT by bert ((K.E.; N.P.; GOPc.;+12, 73, ....carson is the kinder gentler trump)
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To: bert

Fuel and ammunition and maintenance of equipment are expenses that will be greater.


15 posted on 10/19/2015 6:33:24 AM PDT by elhombrelibre (Against Obama. Against Putin. Pro-freedom. Pro-US Constitution.)
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To: elhombrelibre

But, it’s russia..... in the soviet union stuff was made with no regard for anything other than the production plan

the back load of stuff probably is not only unknown but can’t be measured

fuel is free if you disregard the opportunity cost presuming it can be sold

transport to syria is probably less expensive than transport to far far eastern bases.

I won’t deny some current expense, but it is not Napoleon invaiding Russia


16 posted on 10/19/2015 6:38:52 AM PDT by bert ((K.E.; N.P.; GOPc.;+12, 73, ....carson is the kinder gentler trump)
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To: bert

Oh sure. That’s all true. It’s cost aren’t too great if they don’t last long and if they don’t become more intense. Time will tell about that. Fighting these types of enemies takes a lot of time.


17 posted on 10/19/2015 6:56:02 AM PDT by elhombrelibre (Against Obama. Against Putin. Pro-freedom. Pro-US Constitution.)
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To: Cowboy Bob

“Russia could take out Saudi Arabia and resolve the oil glut problem.”


I wouldn’t count on that. Global projection was never a strong suit even for the USSR. For Putin’s Russia with its dilapidated logistics and rusting navy, it would be an impossibility. Plus, Saudi Arabia is one place the USA would fight tooth and nail for if invaded.


18 posted on 10/19/2015 11:46:52 AM PDT by gtx960
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To: TigerLikesRooster

One possible outcome may be that Russia’s economic dependence on China would increase. China could lend money to Russia while others would not. Of course, China would demand some collateral.


The collateral would be parts of the Russian far east (and maybe Outer Mongolia) that the Chinese (communist and KMT alike) believe Russia stole from China in the 19th century.


19 posted on 10/19/2015 11:48:45 AM PDT by gtx960
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To: elhombrelibre

“’The chief effect has been to shrink the Russian economy in global terms. “GDP was $2.3 trillion at the peak. It is now $1.2 trillion, and I fear we are going back to the level of 1998 when it was $700bn,” he said.”
“This would be smaller than Holland ($850bn) or half the size of Texas ($1.4 trillion), a remarkable state of affairs for a country vying for superpower military status in Europe and the Middle East.’ “


Looks like Russia will not even be in the GDP top ten for long. Dosvedanya to any pretense of superpower status.


20 posted on 10/19/2015 11:49:41 AM PDT by gtx960
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