Winners of Iowa seldom win the nomination.
Ditto with NH. Any one can win. Even Sanders, Huckabee.
Very small electorate (Iowa does not have a primary election, only caucus goers get to vote, usually around 150,000 out of a state population of 3.1 million).
When primaries move to the much more expensive markets such as Florida & SC and super Tuesday, that is when the men will separate the boys.
Yes it’s very unfortunate we start league play in blue stadiums.