Posted on 10/07/2015 4:31:30 AM PDT by NYer
A MATHEMATICAL discovery by Perth-based electrical engineer Dr David Evans may change everything about the climate debate, on the eve of the UN climate change conference in Paris next month.
A former climate modeller for the Government’s Australian Greenhouse Office, with six degrees in applied mathematics, Dr Evans has unpacked the architecture of the basic climate model which underpins all climate science.
He found that, while the underlying physics of the model is correct, it had been applied incorrectly.
He fixed two errors and the new corrected model finds the climate’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide (CO2) is much lower than was thought.
It turns out the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has over-estimated future global warming by as much as 10 times, he says.
“Yes, CO2 has an effect, but it’s about a fifth or tenth of what the IPCC says it is. CO2 is not driving the climate; it caused less than 20 per cent of the global warming in the last few decades”.
Dr Evans says his discovery “ought to change the world”.
“But the political obstacles are massive,” he said.
His discovery explains why none of the climate models used by the IPCC reflect the evidence of recorded temperatures. The models have failed to predict the pause in global warming which has been going on for 18 years and counting.
“The model architecture was wrong,” he says. “Carbon dioxide causes only minor warming. The climate is largely driven by factors outside our control.”
There is another problem with the original climate model, which has been around since 1896.
While climate scientists have been predicting since the 1990s that changes in temperature would follow changes in carbon dioxide, the records over the past half million years show that not to be the case.
The new improved climate model shows CO2 is not the culprit in recent global warming.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.com.au ...
“Modeling” is creation from static entities. You can model anything to look like anything you can possibly imagine. Just because a computer prints something out doesn’t mean it’s not partially or totally fiction.
This two parameters were intentionally back calculated to be able to demonstrate that the emissions of CO2 from had the potential to produce a world wide catastrophe that was the environmental equivalent of a nuclear war.
When the Wall came down at the end of the Cold War, the Cold Warriors were left out in the cold.
They were hit by massive and debilitating budget cuts that pretty much put them out of business unless they could find alternate sources of funding to keep their jobs afloat and their Cray Super Computers running.
Congress pretty much told them that their funding was reallocated to Peace Dividend spending priorities they were going to have find new sources of funding in the private sector in order to survive.
A panicked review of their software library showed that there was very little commercial demand for nuclear warhead explosion simulations or ballistic missile warhead re entry targeting simulations. Pretty much the same for everything else the did.
The one bright spot in the gloomy scenario was that they did have some really good weather prediction simulations. The ability to simulate and predict local weather conditions over a city targeted by a nuclear warhead re entering the earth's atmosphere was critical to maintaining pin point accuracy.
Everyone was overjoyed until they realized that the private sector demanded practical solutions to real problems.
The private sector also put a premium on productivity, cost controls, hard work, management skills and a bunch of other requirements that they never had to deal with before and were unable and even more unwilling to develop.
They liked their world that blended the all the best features of University Academic Life such as light work load,academic and intellectual freedom, flex hours, no trouble deadlines and pressure to produce but with a very high salary and and the power and position that goes with a high priority in a prestigious government laboratory research faculty
So they had a weather simulation that worked but no practical application for it, no real perceived need that would justify 5-10 years of hard work and investment ignored to convert the program to practical, user friendly civilian service which was really not as big of a deal as one would suppose because they had no expertise or idea of how to market such a program even if was commercially viable, nor did they have any mechanism to market or sell the program.even if there lots of Cray computers out there demanding to have a copy. of the software.
All that these guys were good at was pitching and justifying expensive and esoteric technical programs to gullible Congressional Leaders who had not the slightest grasp of technical details but were sure attentive when one of these experts went to congress to testify that if a nuclear weapon detonated in certain manner it could start nuclear chain reaction that had the capability to set the Earth's atmosphere on fire and end up frying the entire world in a matter of hours the the Pols jumped out of their armchairs and took notice .
When asked what should be done to prevent such a global catastrophe, the Laboratory big Shots assured the members of Congress that the potential was there but the likelihood of such a chain of event were actually pretty small.
But then again, we are talking about setting the earth's atmosphere on fire and burning the world to the ground and destroying all life on the Planet Earth, which is kind of an extreme down down side scenario, even if it was admittedly a very low probability scenario.
Alarmed Congressional leaders immediately voted 100 million or so year to study the problem to make sure we avoided accidentally setting the Earth's atmosphere . on fire an burning the world to the ground.
A hundred mega bucks a year to study such dangers to humanity was a pretty good gig and string a few of those mega dollar research projects together and you are on a roll.
And who's to say if you are making any progress or getting any value for the money being spent. Only a handful of top flight research scientists in the world can even understand your work and Secret Government security classification ensures that they never even are aware of what your research involves , much less subjecting it to independent peer review. What hey do notice is you have a new Porsche, have just build new addition to the home with an Olympic sized indoor pool and you get to travel first class air to bunch of access restricted technical conferences inlaces like Hawaii.
Alas, no more nucs, no more threat of nuclear firestorm.
But what the heck, they had atmospheric heating mechanisms down cold, and atmospheric weather prediction that was really nice and all they needed was another potential catastrophe in the making with the possibility of world wide destructive capability and they would be back in the 100 mega buck a year funding levels for basic scientific research , that new fleet of gallium arsenide Cray super computers would be theirs and and all would be right with the world.
Then one smart guy remembered from his basic chemistry class in college that CO2 gas absorbed infra red radiation and burning fossil fuels produced CO2 gas and the light bulb went off in his head and boys, we are back in business.
Add a CO2 model to the weather program and make up a bunch of view slides that show the ice fields in Greenland melting away over the next 25 years until Greenland was totally green, Show a graph of the world s temperature steadily heating up and the oceans levels rising in response to the melting glaciers and submerging coastal cities like New York, Boston, Washington DC and all these other places where the people who really matter reside and you suddenly have your world wide catastrophe in the making with destructive potential equaling that of a nuclear war and ka- ching the 100 mega bucks a year in basic research funding beating on your begging to be let in.
Except that the atmospheric model is not cooperating because runs at even high CO2 levels show no significant warming trend.
But the problem is of such serious threats to the future of human civilization we must study the problem lest we negligently cause the end of the world in our ignorance of the problem because world wide industrial development is i creating increasingly large volumes of CO2 to be released in the atmosphere ,
While the probability of Global Heating due to increasing levels of atmospheric CO2 is probably small, the physics of the problem are poorly understood at them moment. So the potential for CO2 warming is theoretically sound, but poorly understood and the downs side risks are so catastrphic world wide that it would be criminal of us to let small in accuracies in the program jeopardize the fate of the entire world
So we will just refine these emissivity parameters in the code and keep re running the program until we get more realistic estimation of the serious heating potentials of atmospheric CO2 .
This is a serious problem just look at those slides of Greenland. Today Greenland is almost completely covered with ice. Our five year predictions show progressive melting of the ice layers until Greenland's ice cap is completely melted away and almost all of Greenland is now covered with green vegetation.
Congressman - so you are telling me, Mr Laboratory Big Shot Egg Head, that it's 1990 right now and Greenland is covered with ice but in twenty five years, if we keep going the same way we are going with the burning of fossil fuels, atmospheric heating from CO2 gas produced from the burning of fossil fuels wail melt the ice caps and heat the Earth's atmosphere up to where it's like living in a greenhouse.
Scientist - Yup, it could definitely happen . We of course don't know for sure but it's possible and the theory is certainly sound. We won't know for sure until we have studied the problem more thoroughly and refined our computer models.
Congressman - but even then the downside risk of the problem is a world wide catastrophe in the making so better get to work and get ahead of the problem before it destroys the world as we know. This is serious business. Greenland is all white glacier but if we keep going the way we are going burning fossil fuels in just 25 years Greenland's will have melted away totally and Greenland will be all green. Just think of it Mr Scientist, if things keep going as they are by the year 2015, the ice will all be melted away and Greenland will be all green. You are not getting only 100 million a year this time around , we are going to plus you up and make it 250 million a year to study this CO2 thing because we just can't afford not to.
We need to get the whole world on board with this. We need a Conference, preferably one on some island in a city that will be submerged in 25 years by cement from all of the CO2 atmospheric heating. Yup, Japan's an Island ... where ...Kyoto... never heard of the place , but it's got plenty of Four Star hotels and restaurants so Kyoto it is.
And so it went .
Except things did not keep going the way they were going because nobody could have predicted the rise of China and it's massive increase in the burning of fossil fuels which have produced atmospheric CO2 levels in 2015 that are much, much higher than anyone could dream of in 1990.
Now it's 2015, CO2 in the atmosphere is way past the worst case predicted back in 1990.
But Greenland is still covered with ice, even more so than in 1990, in fact.
On another note, the last and youngest member of the Cold Warriors who got left out in the cold when the Wall came down and the Cold War ended retired this year after an amazing and storied career that encompassed every thing from starting out programming Cray Super Computer that were quite the marvel their time and making the breakthrough research that birth to Kyoto and the science of global warming. He then moved on to NASA where he oversaw the development of NASA’s entire range of CO2 and Atmospheric temperature monitoring satellites that at the time accounted for 40 % of NASA’s budgetary appropriations while still having time to plan and implement NASA’s new network of terrestrial temperature monitoring stations which were another huge program that accounted for another 15% of NASA’s budget.
In his spare time he enjoyed trips to Antarctica to work on NASA’s ice core drilling projects to determine the CO2 content of prehistoric Arctic Ice formations
Heck of a career.
It's amazing how far a few minor tweaks on two obscure parameters of computer code can take you
Thanks for the ping. Suspicions confirmed.
David Evans is an Australian mathematician and engineer.
Evans obtained his PhD in Electrical Engineering from the Stanford University in 1989 and a Bachelor of Electrical Engineering 1983 from the University of Sydney. He has four other degrees.[1]
From 1999 to 2005 Evans worked in the Australian Greenhouse Office.[2][3] There he contributed to the development of FullCam, a fully integrated carbon accounting model for estimating and predicting all biomass, litter and soil carbon pools in forest and agricultural systems for the Australian government.[3] (FullCam, part of Australia's National Carbon Accounting System, received a Special Achievement in GIS award at the 2010 ESRI International User Conference).[4]
He established Goldnerds, an information service for gold investors. He also serves on the Board of Advisors for the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow,[5] a group founded to promote a “positive voice on environment and development issues”. The Committee dismisses fears about global warming as “alarmist”,[6] and Evans has moved from a “warmist” to a “skeptic” position.[1]
For the mind that is still forming, the milk fats are a great way to help production. That’s why my kids have had nothing but whole milk at home. And when they are at school, they specifically request whole milk - telling the folks in the lunch line that the 2%, 1%, skim, fat free stuff tastes worse than water.
Problem is they are models. Made up!
Most of the planet have no weather instruments so these guys just make things up.
Math from a non-scientist: 20% * 0 = 0 . If there has been no warming for the past two decades, then wouldn’t CO2 have had no impact on global warming, rather than being responsible for 20% of it?
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