Posted on 10/01/2015 12:00:20 PM PDT by EveningStar
In the early years of the 20th century, zeppelins filled with flammable and explosive hydrogen were all the rage in Germany, a reckless infatuation that ended with the eruption and crash of the Hindenburg in 1937. Sometimes, technology is a triumph of wild-eyed enthusiasm over the unpleasant facts of the real world.
Today we are witnessing a similar outburst of enthusiasm over the literally outlandish notion that in the relatively near future, some of us are going to be living, working, thriving and dying on Mars ...
Unfortunately, this Mars mania reflects an excessively optimistic view of what it actually takes to travel to and live on Mars, papering over many of the harsh realities and bitter truths that underlie the dream.
First, there is the tedious business of getting there. Using current technology and conventional chemical rockets, a trip to Mars would be a grueling, eight- to nine-month-long nightmare for the crew ...
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Mere side effect? Some things happen from “side-effects”, but most space travel is researched hard before attempts are made.
But I see your point. I’m not talking about side effects. I’m talking about results and what they mean for manufacturing, research, theology, etc.
Space exploration does not need to be justified , it needs to be done. You can’t justify space exploration because that’s what it is, exploration. Inherently it’s going to be unpredictable because you’re blazing the path. The only justification is that we need to do it because there is more out there that we cannot even fathom. It’s important to humanity, as individuals and mankind as a whole to seek answers and bring a higher quality of life to humanity. That’s all the justification needed, and it is the “big picture” goal of any singular mission. It is productive, worthwhile, and justifiable in the simplest terms. War isn’t.
Your argument falls apart when you compare war to space exploration, the first sentence even.
Yep, the heavens and the Earth are either all ours, or they aren’t, and we need to know.
“Of course there is. You’re not a fortune teller, so you have no idea what the ultimate fate of the human race will be, with or without colonizing other planets.”
That is nothing more than a bunch of absurd nonsense. No one has to be a “fortune teller” to know with certainty that all humans on the Earth are destined to become extinct. No one has to be a “fortune teller” to know with certainty that the Human species has an opportunity to survive indefinitely if and when Humans successfully colonize the outer Solar System with a population larger than their present day population on the Earth.
“You assume that we must colonize other planets or face doom, because you require that assumption to make the rest of your arguments.”
Again, you are demonstrating your arrogant disregard for the truth by jumping to baseless and erroneous conclusions. I never said that we “must” colonize the other planets. On the contrary, the colonization of Mars in my opinion may be useful as an outpost for resources, but I doubt it is much more of a survivable long-term habitat than the Earth. Any Human population living on Mars is destined to become extinct in the aftermath of the inevitable cataclysms which will befall Mars as they are destined to befall the Earth. To survive indefinitely, the Human species must colonize the asteroids and perhaps some of the Kuiper Belt Objects, and perhaps some of the minor planetoids in the outer Solar System. Once the Human species has successfully colonized and inhabited a thousand and more asteroids in the outer Solar System, no single cataclysm destroying its Human population can threaten the extinction of the entire Human species. The Human inhabitants of the Earth eventually face certain doom, because the Earth’s biosphere is destined to be destroyed with 100 percent certainty. That is a simple scientific fact requiring no “fortune telling” whatsoever.
“Focus on deep sea rather than deep space”
“Make sense??”
No, it make no sense at all, because the Earth and its hydrosphere are going to be wrecked by multiple large asteroid collisions and will finally lose its hydrosphere and the upper layers of its lithosphere to space due to extreme Solar events. Mercury and Venus are destined to be vaporized and consumed by the expansion of the Sun as it enters its giant phase of life. The Earth may or may not be entirely vaporized and consumed, but at best its orbit will expand to about where Mars is today after the Earth’s hydrosphere and upper crust have been vaporized and stripped off of a diminished and lifeless Earth orbiting close to or slightly inside the outer atmosphere of the giant red Sun.
“Good, campaign for that then, and more power to you. Just don’t try to rob me to fund socialism for aerospace engineers in the meantime.”
Governmental funding of space technologies and their applications to the Defence and General Welfare of the Republic are powers authorized by the Constitution:
Section. 8.
The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States
NASA funded experiments have shown that Sulfur concrete is too unstable when heated in Sunlight, and is too massive and brittle for usage in structures requiring certain heavy load bearing stresses. Instead, metal powders sintered with regolith has promise for certain types of ground structures and road surfaces, but would be economically challenging for some such applications.
Spacecraft need to be constructed from iron, steel, aluminum, titanium, other metals, and plastics mined and forged in the asteroids in order to be economically feasible to build and operate outside of the gravity wells.
Sure, that might be a proper role for the federal government, but it’s still a fruitless venture, as far as the primary mission is concerned, when they are chasing pipe dreams like colonizing Mars.
You want to live in fantasy land? Do it on your own dime. We are about to collapse under our debt, we can’t afford to chase rainbows with the public treasury.
“As for a sizable enough asteroid destroying all life on earth, the chances are unimaginably remote. Preparations for such an event would also be feasible (shelters, etc.).”
You missed the point. It isn’t the asteroid which destroys all or most life on Earth that you have to worry about. It is the smaller asteroid which is capable of destroying the present level of global civilization. Once this civilization is destroyed, there will be insufficient time and natural resources to create another such spacefaring civilization before the Extinction Level Events (ELE) occur. Finally, even if the Human cultures stranded upon the Earth managed to survive that long, the Earth’s still thinning atmosphere and the Sun’s expansion to become a red giant star will eventually reduce the Earth to a lifeless or virtually lifeless planet stripped of its hydrosphere, upper lithosphere, and atmosphere, if the Earth survives at all. The sun will eventually expand to vaporize and consume Mercury and Venus. The Earth may or may not escape the same fate, but would be in the outer edges of the Sun’s atmosphere even though its orbit has expanded outwards to the vicinity of where Mars is today.
These smaller asteroids impact the Earth less than about 500,000 years on average. Smaller asteroids capable of major disruptions of the global civilization occur about 100,000 or more years on average. The Earth can expect one of these civilization shattering impact events to occur anytime within the next few thousands of years or tomorrow.
Note, if Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 had impacted the Earth instead of Jupiter, our present civilization would already have been burned off of the face of the Earth along with all surface plants.
“No one has to be a “fortune teller” to know with certainty that all humans on the Earth are destined to become extinct.”
Ah, but you are making more than just that assumption.
You’re assuming that this will happen soon, so that we have to pursue space colonization now, while the probabilities are very much NOT in favor of that scenario. You’re also assuming that pursuing space colonization now won’t lead to some scenario that CAUSES our extinction, which is entirely possible. You want to colonize space, so you shape your arguments around your subjective desires, rather than evaluating things objectively.
“Once the Human species has successfully colonized and inhabited a thousand and more asteroids in the outer Solar System, no single cataclysm destroying its Human population can threaten the extinction of the entire Human species.”
More assumptions, as you don’t even know that this would be possible to achieve, much less that it would be the best use of our resources to ensure the survival of the human race. The simple fact is that we know of exactly ONE location in the entire universe that is actually capable of sustaining human life, and we already live there.
“You want to live in fantasy land? Do it on your own dime. We are about to collapse under our debt, we can’t afford to chase rainbows with the public treasury.”
You want to talk about living in fantasy, it is your not realizing how we cannot afford as a nation and a society to surrender the High Ground or the extraterrestrial economy to China, Russia, or any other totalitarian regime. An iron-nickel asteroid and its mining operation are worth more than its weight in the gold found here on the Earth. Whomever exploits such a natural resource to construct factories, communications, transportation facilities, and spacecraft in space is going to become the first trillionaire/s.
“we cannot afford as a nation and a society to surrender the High Ground or the extraterrestrial economy to China, Russia, or any other totalitarian regime”
Luckily, none of those regimes are as silly as you and aren’t chasing that fantasy.
“An iron-nickel asteroid and its mining operation are worth more than its weight in the gold found here on the Earth.”
Still fantasizing about complete hypotheticals here...
“we cannot afford as a nation and a society to surrender the High Ground or the extraterrestrial economy to China, Russia, or any other totalitarian regime”
“Luckily, none of those regimes are as silly as you and aren’t chasing that fantasy.”
You sure are determined to destroy your credibility with false statements.
Example 1, Russia:
Russia Scoffs At NASA Plans To Send Astronauts To Asteroid And Mars By 2015
by Staff Writers
Moscow, Russia (RIA Novosti) Jul 20, 2010
U.S. NASA does not have capacities to build an asteroid mission spacecraft by 2015, the head of Roscosmos’ manned flights department, Alexei Krasnov, said in the wake of NASA’s announcement to create the spacecraft for deep space missions....
“It is unreal by 2015,” Krasnov said.
“[They] probably won’t be able to any sooner than by 2023-2025. They do not have the necessary spacecraft, and we will be ready with the project by 2018-2020”.
Example 2, China:
China Preparing for Mars, Asteroid Exploration
World | Press Trust of India | Updated: March 03, 2015 23:09 IST
Beijing: China has been researching the technical feasibility of exploring Mars and asteroids, a Chinese space scientist has said.
Ye Peijian, from the China Academy of Space Technology and chief scientist with the country’s lunar probe mission, said Chinese space researchers had tackled some of the technical difficulties associated with the exploration of Mars and asteroids.
However, he added, the projects are only at the technical preparation stage, which suggests that it will be some time before an official project is announced.
Ye is a vocal advocate for a Chinese Mars mission. If the project was given the green light, he said, the probe should orbit, land, and explore the surface of Mars all in one mission.
Ye said that as a developing country, China should narrow its space exploration focus to certain planets.
The country should also explore asteroids as many preserve information dating back to the Big Bang, not to mention that some pose a risk to the human race, he said.
“I hope (these plans) win the support of the people of China, and things kick off as soon as possible,” Ye, who is in Beijing for the annual session of China’s top political advisory body, told state-run Xinhua news agency.
An earlier report said that a feasibility study on China’s first Mars mission had been completed. In November last year, a model of a Mars rover prototype was displayed at the Airshow China 2014.
Story First Published: March 03, 2015 23:09 IST
http://www.ndtv.com/world-news/china-preparing-for-mars-asteroid-exploration-744059
“An iron-nickel asteroid and its mining operation are worth more than its weight in the gold found here on the Earth.”
Example 3, Russia, U.S.
Russia-linked Company Invests in Asteroid Mining
Vedomosti
Aug. 17 2012 00:00
Last edited 21:45
A Russia-linked company has invested in a space venture worthy of a science fiction novel, betting that asteroids could be mined for gold and platinum.
The company, called I2BF Global Ventures, put its money on U.S.-based Planetary Resources, said Ilya Golubovich, managing partner of the venture fund. Michael Murray, a consultant for Planetary Resources, confirmed the report.
Planetary Resources might also use water-rich asteroids to supply orbital “filling stations” with fuel and water, making spaceflights less expensive, Golubovich said.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-linked-company-invests-in-asteroid-mining/466721.html
Example 4, Russia:
Russia pushes forward plans to mine the moon
Cecilia Jamasmie | October 28, 2014
[....]
The Sternberg Institute’s Head of the Department of Lunar and Planetary Research, Vladislav Shevchenko, told RBTH he believes the lunar surface is rich on rare earth metals. He sees moon exploration as a solution to the current shortage of rare earth metals, whose production is controlled by China, and trusts deliveries from space being potentially more cost-effective than mining for metals at home.
http://www.mining.com/russia-pushes-forward-plans-to-mine-the-moon-13769/
“Still fantasizing about complete hypotheticals here...”
You are blatantly wrong again, because commercial asteroid mining space flights are already a reality and not a fantasy. Example:
Planetary Resources, The Asteroid Mining Company, is already launching spacecraft for the first stages of their exploration and development of commercial asteroid mining operations.
http://www.planetaryresources.com/news/
Also note the cost of Gold by the Kilogram on the Gold markets is currently $36,571.15; whereas the cost per kilogram to transport cargo to a Geostationary Transfer Orbit (GTO) has been running between $16,620 and $30,249. The cost of transport beyond GTO into deep space is well beyond the cost for GTO and well beyond the cost of Gold. Asteroid mining operations and metal fabrication industries in deep space drastically lowers those costs once the infrastructure has been established. The lowered spacecraft manufacturing costs in deep space then unlocks the financial feasibility for a wide range of commercial space activities and economies. Those are real world facts already being utilized in business plans and commercial operation of spacecraft and not mere fantasies.
What is the current cost per kg to send something into GSO/GEO?
http://space.stackexchange.com/questions/2015/what-is-the-current-cost-per-kg-to-send-something-into-gso-geo
GOLD PRICE - WHERE THE WORLD CHECKS THE GOLD PRICE
http://www.goldprice.org/gold-price-per-kilo.html
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