“I wonder if he thinks he has 14 months before a real leader might take office.”
Of course! Putin see the US as effectively having no president, and a dumb-as-a-post Secretary of State, so he will take advantage of this situation as much as possible while he has the time. Obama is the weakest president in the history of the United States, and rest assured others are watching, for example, China and North Korea. I expect a power play for Taiwan and/or South Korea withing the next year, especially if it becomes apparent a Democrat may not be elected in 2016.
You are right. China made a subtle threat just a few days ago to us.