Nice try Craig. Trump has nowhere near bottomed out. In fact, this poll proves that the Carson and Fiorino surges were figments of the medias manipulations. It’s also a small sample size of 391 which is +/-5 moe. All in all, this is a great poll for Trump. It was also taken largely before Trump’s tax plan was released. If you look at Morning Consult and Reuters (online polls), Trump is at 30 and trending up in Reuters. He’s doubled up his competition in both of those polls and has nearly done the same here. Trump has been bludgeoned this month by everyone and he is still standing strong.
Actually I agree with you, I think you and some others are misinterpreting what I mean when I say “bottomed out” — I mean this in a positive way for Trump, as in his numbers aren’t going down anymore because he has a floor of supporters that aren’t going anywhere.
Very nice analysis! Awesome!
Carson (less so Fiorina) is the "Trump Parking Lot." These will almost all be Trump voters eventually. I think Fiorina's support will split between Rubio and Trump. I think Cruz's support will eventually go 90% Trump. Bush and the dwarves will line up behind Rubio.