A poll, at this time, this far out, is a phone call to any person and doesn't take into account whether this person, next year, will show up at his/her voting precinct to vote in the PRIMARY. Many people don't even know it is the Primary that determines who will be the actual candidate on the November ballot and they just vote in November.
Back to Cruz: The polls in Texas were wrong when Cruz ran against the Lt. Gov., for US Senator. He wasn't supposed to win if one went by polls. He won handily. I think he's the one candidate where polls don't reflect the grass root voters contacted by Cruz's teams, who actually turn out to vote.
Cruz was/is an organizer and from what I have read, his system is the same type he used in Texas for the Senate seat, which now will cover states by his teams who are chosen state by state. Those teams, by county, contact voters in their county and push Cruz and get them to go vote for him.
I don't think Trump has such an organization and voters who don't watch TV much, or just watch entertainment TV, aren't getting a big dose of Trump. These voters will be contacted by Cruz teams.
I used to work with the Texas State Republican Party and candidates and became acquainted with how district and state candidates organized their campaigns. I chose the candidates I wanted to work for, and was responsible for contacting voters in my county and kept in touch with the candidates as I went through the process. It takes dedication to hold a phone to the ear to call voters for hours every day, day after day. Using my psychology training, I usually made a friend of voters I called and they voted for my guys/women.
I also put together primary voter lists for other counties, using Access and Excel data spreadsheets, that these district and state candidates needed. I think most people think a candidate signs up to get his/her name on the ballot and that is all they do.
I know how complicated it is to get data together and put together teams and other workers in order to win an election. That is why I know how organized Cruz is with his campaign and why I don't think polls reflect what is happening on the ground, in the grass roots where the voters actually are. I don't think Trump is putting together the organization he needs - I think he is relying on his “great” TV appearances to get voters and I know that doesn't cut it, you have to get to the individual voter before the primary and then contact again shortly before the Primary to get them to the polls.
So, don't give up on voters for Cruz at this time. Debates are important for candidates to get their message out but they are not nearly as important as getting the candidate's full message to individual voters; polls are interesting and mean there is interest, generally, in these individual candidates, but it's more important to get to the individual voters. (How much of a candidate's message got to voters in this last debate? What we got was Trump said Carly was ugly, Jeb complained about what Trump said about his wife, etc...)
I was just posting on this topic-—Cruz’s campaign-—to a Freeper who was excusing Trump’s statement that he would have no problem considering a Muslim for his cabinet or his ticket.
I’m not worried about Cruz. I read his book, and in it, he talked at length about his Texas Senate campaign.
He was running against a very popular, wealthy, self-funded opponent. In contrast, Ted had almost zero name recognition. According to one estimate, and allowing for the margin of error, he was at one point polling at -1. He was told over and over that he had no chance of winning.
But Cruz’s specialty is, as he puts it, the “modern, grassroots guerilla campaign”. He plays a long game, and while Trump’s tabloid thing goes on, Cruz is laying ground in every state, hiring staff, and money is rolling in.
Mark Levin said it just the other night-—next year, the polls will look nothing like they do today.
And let me add that I’m getting sick of the “Cruz has no charisma/warmth, etc.” and “women don’t like him” memes. Both are false; anyone who pays a moderate amount of attention knows that.
Cruz has a talent for connecting to people at the grassroots level. When he was introduced yesterday at the Iowa Faith and Family Coalition, the host said, “This guy is a rock star.” The audience seemed to agree.
And there was a FR article recently from some liberal source that was surprised Ted connects very well with women.