I have no access to secret intelligence, but I don't believe Russia would attack Israel under any but existential circumstances.
Just penetrating that air space would be very costly for them.
However, the scenario where they intercept Israeli aircraft en route to an Iranian raid is plausible.
And if they can’t catch that aircraft?
You think Russia just says, “Oh well...”, and lets it go at that?
Would Israel let it go if Russia did intercept their aircraft?
Even if this didn’t turn into a massive confrontation at the moment, the two would be bitter enemies from that moment on.
We have a very vital interest in what is happening in Syria.
Their prior operational capacity was “undercover”- as in Crimea/Ukreaine. Quite possible they would foolishly run a covert false flag. Destructive person, Stalin.. I mean Putin.