[Hardens Hollow]

You are assuming that all crashes will bounce back at the same rate. Since I think the last recovery was really a bubble, at some point there will not be a bounce back. If you look at the stock market after the depression, it was slow going.

[Alberta's Child]

I haven't assumed anything. I'm basing this on a historical track record where the U.S. stock market has rarely (if ever) declined over a ten-year period. Maybe it doesn't bounce back fast, but over the last few years we have seen some very solid numbers in the stock market.

The market capitalization (this doesn't include dividends) of the S&P 500 index has declined for about 25% of the years since 1950. It has declined over a ten-year period less than 13% of the time. With that in mind, why would anyone decide not to invest for the long term?