Right. This is not a linear exercise. Trump supporters are extrapolating from past data the way NASA is predicting the end of sea ice by 1999.
Here’s how this works from here: There is Trump, who has a following because he’s rude, and there’s everyone else. You like Trump for one reason, but you like a non-Trump for all other reasons. If you were going to join the Trump brigade (because it thrills you that he’s rude), you’ve most likely moved by now. You’ve seen him, heard him, read his tweets, and he doesn’t get more interesting from here. Just more of the same. His support is not linear; there’s a decreasing marginal return on style. His poll score is increasingly rigid as it climbs.
As the other candidates drop out, their support shifts within the non-Trump sector, more than it shifts to Trump. As time goes on, his lead shrinks. At the same time, his posturing about having all the money he needs will fade, because he doesn’t have the money he needs. (He’s not going to sell real estate to cash flow his campaign. He’s just not.)
Trump’s mistake and that of his supporters seems to be of a kind; taking the past as a linear trend. History is littered with that.
Jibberish. The shifts took place based on the strength of performances by each candidate. Trump actually gained a point on a mixed, probably overall neutral performance.
The larger shifts went from Walker, Bush and Cristie, and several who lost 1%. Walker, Bush and Cristie gave lackluster performances. All shifts track the perceived strength of performance with Cruz, Carson and Fiorina being the big gainers. And this is still one poll with a fairly high margin of error.
As the other candidates drop out, their support shifts within the non-Trump sector, more than it shifts to Trump.>
Jibberish. The shifts took place based on the strength of performances by each candidate. Trump actually gained a point on a mixed, probably overall neutral performance.
The larger shifts went from Walker, Bush and Cristie, and several who lost 1%. Walker, Bush and Cristie gave lackluster performances. All shifts track the perceived strength of performance with Cruz, Carson and Fiorina being the big gainers.
If the debate had been professionally done and the questions about critical issues for everyone, Trump might well have gained several points but he was too much under attack to shine very much in that debate.
And this is still one poll with a fairly high margin of error.