Posted on 07/29/2015 1:41:15 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Heading into the final days of July, it seems clear that not only is Donald Trump not going away, he’s increasing in support day by day. Logically, some are starting to ask, “Can Trump win?” Pat Buchanan wrote a column arguing that it could happen.
Buchanan thinks Trump touches all the right nerves in politics today, a man who mocks the political establishment of both parties and is loathed by the mainstream media. The more they discount him, the higher his poll numbers rise.
Buchanan doesn’t claim that Trump will win, but says unless Donald commits some kind of egregious error, he’ll at least be around long enough to make it interesting. “If his poll numbers hold, Trump will be there six months from now when the Sweet 16 is cut to the Final Four, and he will likely be in the finals. For if Trump is running at 18 or 20 percent nationally then, among Republicans, it is hard to see how two rivals beat him.”
Trump’s poll numbers are indeed impressive, as a recent survey in New Hampshire indicates. Trump’s lead has stretched to 12 points over his nearest rival, and further, it appears that his comments on John McCain have not undermined his popularity in the Granite State (of course, McCain won there in 2000 and 2008).
For another perspective on Trump’s war of words with John McCain, try G. Murphy Donovan’s piece at American Thinker. Donovan, a fellow Vietnam veteran, writes, “The difference between Trump and McCain should be obvious to any fair observer; Trump has done something with his talents. McCain, in contrast, is coasting on a military myth and resting on the laurels of Senatorial tenure.”
At least McCain isn’t running for president again. We can be thankful for that.
Rand Paul is one of those who is running, but Erick Erickson at RedState wonders why Paul is “missing in action.” Erickson notes that Paul isn’t raising any money and is largely missing out on key news cycles. Erickson thinks it’s because Paul’s made some bad hires.
“Paul has drawn to his side a group of campaign consultants and advisors who seem to be doing well for themselves, but I have to wonder if they are doing well for their candidate.”
It’s not too late, but Paul better pull out of the tailspin soon.
One candidate who’s most definitely not in a tailspin is Ted Cruz. Cruz’s poll numbers perhaps do not reflect his visibility and his recent throw-down with Mitch McConnell over the failure of the Republican establishment and party leadership will likely win him more support with the conservative voting base.
David M. Drucker at the Washington Examiner writes, “Even before the rise of Donald Trump, the campaign for the Republican presidential nomination was a bull market for Washington-bashing that in past years might have been deemed excessive.”
Cruz is too principled to speak out for political benefit alone – after all, he’s done it his entire political career at all levels – but furthering his reputation as a populist won’t hurt his larger campaign, despite what the “consultants” might say.
One candidate who would seem to be completely consultant-driven is Jeb Bush, who said – in Spanish during an interview with Telemundo – that he was “hurt” personally by Donald Trump’s comments about Mexican immigrants.
In addition to the pain Bush felt, he added that his family eats Mexican food and speaks Spanish at home (Bush’s wife Columba is Mexican, after all).
As if trying to prove he has no principled and ideological foundation, Bush is embracing the very kind of identity politics often employed by Obama, Hillary Clinton and most Democrats.
Jeb also questioned the “language” spoken by Mike Huckabee in reference to Obama’s awful deal with Iran, saying Huckabee should watch his “tone.” Huckabee responded by saying we need a Churchill, not a Chamberlain.
Finally, Bush and Huckabee look like safe bets to be at the first debate next week, but there’s controversy ahead to decide who will fill out the final two spots on stage.
According to Jonathan Easley at The Hill:
“Fox News is capping the Aug. 6 debate in Cleveland at 10 candidates based on five as-of-yet unspecified national polls released by 5 p.m. on Aug. 4. Based on five polls used by RealClearPolitics (RCP), eight candidates look like locks to make the stage, while the race for the final two slots is headed for a controversial photo finish. For the candidates currently ranked between ninth place and 14th place, the polling differential is negligible.”
That group includes Chris Christie, John Kasich, Rick Perry, Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum and Bobby Jindal, all within 1.5 points of each other according to Real Clear Politics.
(Note: Lindsey Graham and George Pataki are polling at near-zero. They won’t be there. No one will notice anyway.)
For those left on the “outside,” however, Fox will hold a one-hour forum earlier in the day.
There will be plenty of griping… but will it help any of them?
Looks like the dough is with Cruz, Trump, and Bush.
They’re the most likely to slog to finish line.
Now that FNC changed the rules, we should call the early forum the “Kids Table Debate”
Cruz debating hillary would be an awesome thing to see.
I fear hillary debating Trump would have her dredging up his pro-liberal history.
You can’t tell anything about who can win for another 14 months.
130 million people, more or less, will vote in November 2016, and most of them are focused on Blake and Miranda at the moment.
It's not the GOP way. They pick a new loser each election. Their anointed loser for this round is Jebbie.
You are absolutely correct - which is why the MSM heaps attention on Trump.
But they do like to bite ankles.
Why was Thad Cochran re-elected?
IOW, the author is pimping for media that sells paid ads.
Anything that happens now is irrelevant to Fall 2016.
Mississippi is like a combination of Louisiana and South Carolina.
Griping? Oh yeah!!
Lots of griping ahead.
Release the hounds of the press.
Follow the wails.
Actually they could well be there after Fox changed the reqirements.
If these ladies represent a trend, Trump can very definitely win.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgSDR4beSAY
Yes the ankle biters get a so called mini debate before the main event that starts at 9 pm Eastern.
CRUZ RISING are the only words that terrify knowledgeable Democrats.
I see and hear this “rising” and there is no doubt he is a conservative candidate and kicking some butt in the Senate, but he is still in the Ben Carson, Rand Paul range, just barely above the Christie/Kasich range...how is that rising?
I stand with Ted
NOW is the time for all good conservatives to come to the aid of their candidate
Tagline.
As we head into this season of debates and campaigns, it’s good to look back and examine where we are in this process. Here is a link to a Washington Post article from early August 2007 about the poll numbers in Iowa:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/08/04/AR2007080401380_pf.html
From this article, we can see that the most recent poll numbers were:
Mitt Romney 26%
Rudy Giuliani 14%
Fred Thompson 13%
Mike Huckabee 8%
John McCain 8%
Sam Brownback 5%
Tom Tancredo 5%
Tommy Thompson 4%
Ron Paul 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Now this was 5 months before the Caucus. The results of the caucus were:
Mike Huckabee 34.4% (an increase of 26.4% from the August poll)
Mitt Romney 25.2% (minus 0.8%)
Fred Thompson 13.4% (increase of 0.4%)
John McCain 13.0% (increase of 5%)
Ron Paul 9.9% (increase of 7.9%)
Rudy Giuliani 3.4% (minus 10.6%)
Wow! McCain wasn’t even making waves during the August poll and he came in fourth in the actual vote in Iowa. And yet he was the winner of the nomination.
Point is, all things are in flux now. Work hard for your choice. Be positive about why people should support your guy instead of just taking shots at everyone else.
Note that there were 10 candidates in August and only 6 by the time Iowa voted. We have 17 candidates now, I believe, but we will be down to around 6 to 8 by the time Iowa votes. Let’s not make the perfect the enemy of the good. That clears the way for a McCain or Romney to sweep up the splinters and win the nomination.
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