Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

To: Morpheus2009
No vaccine claims to be 100% effective. The success rate for most is well bellow that. However for some in whom a vaccine fails to completely block an infection on exposure it will at least make your infection milder than it would have been. And if, to pick a number, the vaccine were 95% effective (I haven't looked up the number for measles vaccines, but recall getting that at least twice as vaccines improved during my childhood) your chance of getting this most contagious human disease, when exposed, would be 5%. But if the nearest case of measles was a couple counties away and everyone in your state was only 5% susceptible what would be the chance of it ever challenging your personal 5% risk. It probably wouldn't get to you. Lower either the batting average of the vaccine or the proportion vaccinated and the infection travels much easier and produces larger outbreaks.

In the pre-vaccination era smallpox and measles were normal childhood diseases… and the overall childhood mortality rate was staggering by current standards. The more deadly diseases, most notably smallpox, would cause periodic epidemics. At the end of an epidemic pretty much everyone there would have had smallpox, either then or in an earlier epidemic. With nearly all immune smallpox died off locally and couldn't be spread there. Over time a new generation of susceptible children would be born, waiting for a contagious traveller to spark the next epidemic. Most that died were children, because the adults had all survived it as children. However children actually fared better than non-immune adults. They are designed to respond rapidly and strongly to any new infections. Adults fight back well against infections for which they were trained as a child, but don't respond nearly as fast or well to new ones.

When smallpox or measles was introduced to populations where no one had ever had it the death rates were catastrophic. New England's native population pre-Pilgrims, Mexico after Cortez, Hawaii and Easter Island were all but wiped out by mainly those two novel diseases. Death rates of up to 90% were reported. Today's anti-vaxed kids, who never had a natural chance to develop natural immunity through omnipresent childhood infections, if they meet up with imported measles as adults, spread through their now adult anti-vax circle of friends are going to react like Montezuma's warriors. Even if they're in perfect health their age makes them a higher risk of serious complications. Supportive care is better now; we'll save more than Montezuma's priests could, but we'll still lose some.

50 posted on 07/03/2015 2:30:16 PM PDT by JohnBovenmyer (Obama been Liberal. Hope Change)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies ]


To: JohnBovenmyer

Like I said, the medieval time is long since past. Although I wouldn’t mind drinking cowpox out of cow milk though.


52 posted on 07/03/2015 2:33:58 PM PDT by Morpheus2009
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 50 | View Replies ]

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article


FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson